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Who Should I Draft?

Corbin Burnes or Jesus Luzardo (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Jesus Luzardo
SP,RP - MIA
Jesus Luzardo
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
50 of 51 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 20# 33
Best Rank# 14# 20
Worst Rank# 46# 66
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 56# 101
Best Rank# 51# 85
Worst Rank# 60# 112
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts174144
Wins99
Saves00
ERA3.633.73
WHIP1.201.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 33
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 49
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 24# 32
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 42# 50
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 24# 30
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 24# 39
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 38
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 51
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 37
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 24# 46
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 38# 46
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 22# 24
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 20# 33
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 26# 36
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 26# 43
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 23# 57
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 38# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 44
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 21# 28
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 20# 34
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 25# 38
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 14# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 32# 38
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 19# 35
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 20# 34
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 19# 27
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 16# 37
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 18# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 18# 24
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 22# 26
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 27# 39
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 40# 42
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 23# 30
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 18# 33
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 14# 38
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 40
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 25# 29
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 18# 38
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 18# 31
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 22# 35
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 20# 29
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 17# 38
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 14# 24
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 20# 45
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 20# 23
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 20# 33
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 15# 66
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 24# 29
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 19# 28
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 16# 35
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 21# 20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Jesus Luzardo
SP,RP - MIA
Jesus Luzardo
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started99
   
Innings Pitched60.359.2
   
Wins43
   
Losses12
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed3757
   
Earned Runs1425
   
Home Runs Allowed29
   
Strikeouts8859
   
Walks2417
   
ERA2.113.81
   
WHIP1.021.25
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Jesus Luzardo
SP,RP - MIA
Jesus Luzardo
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2927
   
Games Started2726
   
Innings Pitched142.1141.6
   
Wins99
   
Losses77
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed120130
   
Earned Runs5759
   
Home Runs Allowed1819
   
Strikeouts174144
   
Walks5141
   
ERA3.633.73
   
WHIP1.201.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Jesus Luzardo
SP,RP - MIA
Jesus Luzardo
News 
 Corbin Burnes (11-4) earned the win Saturday against the Mets, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. He walked one and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo allowed five earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Monday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Tue, Sep 21st
 Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on six hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out just one over 4 1/3 innings in Tuesday's loss to the Nationals.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Sep 15th
 Corbin Burnes (10-4) earned the win in a masterpiece Saturday against Cleveland. He threw eight no-hit innings while issuing one walk and striking out 14.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks while striking out eight over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 10th
 Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on six hits across five innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo allowed three earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Friday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Sep 4th
 Corbin Burnes (9-4) picked up the win Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits across six innings. He walked none and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Aug 31st
Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo allowed five earned runs on 10 hits and one walk while striking out three over 4 2/3 innings in Tuesday's loss to the Nationals.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Aug 25th
Notes 
 Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Luzardo's 2020 campaign wasn't terrible, but it certainly left fantasy managers wanting more. The strikeouts were there, but not quite at the level that was expected. He rarely went deep into games. And he was just more hittable than he ever was in the minors or in his brief time as a reliever in 2019. Luzardo throws four quality pitches and is working to improve his arsenal as we head into the 2021 season, so there's little reason to downgrade your opinion of him too much from where it was prior to the 2020 campaign because of one nine-start stretch. He's an incredibly high-upside pitcher who carries with him plenty of injury risk, and the combination leaves him as a solid SP3 for fantasy leagues.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros