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Who Should I Draft?

Edwin Diaz or James Karinchak (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
50 of 51 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 26# 49
Best Rank# 18# 28
Worst Rank# 58# 117
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 81# 102
Best Rank# 71# 94
Worst Rank# 90# 129
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts10299
Wins43
Saves3022
ERA3.043.23
WHIP1.121.19
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-MiLB
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 58
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 68
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 38# 55
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 25# 51
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 29# 40
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 26# 60
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 26# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 30# 47
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 25# 56
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 34# 43
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 25# 45
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 25# 49
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 28# 55
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 37
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 22# 49
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 36# 61
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 20# 32
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 40
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 58
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 21# 40
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 31# 36
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 100
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 27# 40
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 24# 82
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 24# 43
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 27# 43
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 58# 117
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 32# 38
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 53
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 30# 47
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 27# 92
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 30# 62
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 36# 37
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 40# 56
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 27# 43
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 54
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 24# 45
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 33
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 28# 35
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 30# 43
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 18# 40
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 28# 31
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 28# 61
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 24# 48
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 24# 34
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 26# 47
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 22# 37
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 31# 60
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 38# 98
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 23# 65
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 37# 28
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2627
   
Games Started00
   
Innings Pitched26.227.0
   
Wins21
   
Losses12
   
Saves61
   
Blown Saves43
   
Holds18
   
Hits Allowed1814
   
Earned Runs58
   
Home Runs Allowed21
   
Strikeouts5053
   
Walks1416
   
ERA1.752.67
   
WHIP1.251.11
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played6461
   
Games Started00
   
Innings Pitched62.961.3
   
Wins43
   
Losses33
   
Saves3022
   
Blown Saves119
   
Holds36
   
Hits Allowed4740
   
Earned Runs2122
   
Home Runs Allowed87
   
Strikeouts10299
   
Walks2332
   
ERA3.043.23
   
WHIP1.121.19
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
News 
 Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth inning and nailed down his 30th save of the season. The Mets won 3-2 Sunday.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Mon, Sep 20th
The Cleveland Indians have optioned reliever James Karinchak to Triple-A Columbus. His roster spot will go to first baseman Bobby Bradley, who was activated from the IL.
Andersen Pickard
Sat, Aug 28th
 Edwin Diaz allowed two runs on two hits, one walk, and two strikeouts in one inning. He blew the win for starter Rich Hill on Friday, but the Mets scored four runs in the top of the tenth to take the lead and redeem Diaz.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Tue, Sep 7th
Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings in a 7-2 win over the Rangers on Wednesday. He struck out two and allowed just one hit.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Aug 26th
 Edwin Diaz was perfect in the ninth inning with two strikeouts Thursday. The Mets won 4-3 and are one game under .500 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Sep 3rd
Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak allowed a run in his lone inning of work in a 4-3 loss to Oakland on Tuesday.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Aug 11th
 Edwin Diaz struck out two in a perfect inning for his 27th save. The Mets won 3-1 and swept an unconventional doubleheader on Tuesday.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Sep 1st
Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak allowed three runs in 1/3 of an inning in a 12-11 win over the White Sox on Saturday. He walked one and gave up two hits, including a two-run homer.
Matthew Terelle
Sun, Aug 1st
 Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth inning to record the save in Saturday's affair against the Nationals. The Mets improved to 62-67 with the win.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Tue, Aug 31st
Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak threw a scoreless eighth inning in a 3-2 win over the Rays on Sunday. He worked around one walk in the frame.
Matthew Terelle
Sun, Jul 25th
Notes 
 Diaz's overall numbers bounced back in a monstrous way last season. He dropped his ERA from a bloated 5.59 in 2019 to a 1.75, and upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 45.5%. He was among the league leaders in nearly every expected statistic (batting average, slugging percentage wOBA, and ERA), and he cut his HR/9 rate from 2.33 to just 0.70. Diaz's walk rate actually regressed, however, as he issued free passes to nearly five batters per nine innings. That's not often a recipe for success from a closer, but Diaz can survive at that rate if he continues to keep the strikeouts up and limit the long balls. In the end, Diaz does carry some risk given his history, but he should be drafted as one of the upper echelon closers in the game, if not a touch behind the truly elite options.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Karinchak is expected to be Cleveland's closer after Brad Hand moved on to the Nationals, though it's not a sure thing yet. Yes, he walks too many batters (5.33 per nine innings), but you can get away with it when you strike out nearly half the batters you face and hitters bat .151 against you overall. Karinchak has two absolutely devastating pitches: a mid-90's fastball (.184 batting average against, .151 xBA) and a power curveball (.140 batting average against, .114 xBA). Cleveland may not have a ton of success this year and hence save opportunities may be limited, but Karinchak can be a dominant fantasy reliever if he gets the job. Monitor reports out of the spring to see when and if Terry Francona formerly anoints him as the closer. If he does, he should vault to being a top-6 or 7 reliever.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  "Special K" used the third-highest rate of elevated four seamers to produce a dominant season out of the bullpen. 53 strikeouts in 27 innings led to the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball (behind only Devin Williams). Karinchak was blocked for saves by Brad Hand during the 2020 season, but his departure this offseason opens the door for Karinchak to handle ninth inning duties. Assuming Cleveland doesn't sign a "traditional" veteran closer, then I'd aggressively draft Karinchak as a top-three reliever for fantasy baseball purposes.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros