Who Should I Draft?

Edwin Diaz or James Paxton (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Expert
Recommendation
51%
Recommended by
30 of 59 experts
49%
Recommended by
29 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 13
Best Rank# 11# 5
Worst Rank# 31# 24
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 50
Best Rank# 47# 46
Worst Rank# 55# 53
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196103
Wins133
Saves038
ERA3.462.43
WHIP1.140.97
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 15# 17
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 16# 19
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 20
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 21
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 16
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 16
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 18
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 22
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 16
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 15
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 19
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 21
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 16
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 20
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 14
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 23
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 21
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 15
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 21
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 18
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 20
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 22
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 17
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 15# 24
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 17
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 22
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 15
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 20
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 15
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 5
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 8
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 10
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 11
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 11
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 12
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 13
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 13
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 14
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 14
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 14
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 14
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 14
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 15
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 15
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 15
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 15
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 15
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 15
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 15
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 16
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 16
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 16
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 17
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 18
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 18
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 20
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 22
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2873
   
Games Started280
   
Innings Pitched160.173.1
   
Wins110
   
Losses64
   
Saves057
   
Blown Saves04
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed13441
   
Earned Runs6716
   
Home Runs Allowed235
   
Strikeouts208124
   
Walks4217
   
ERA3.761.96
   
WHIP1.100.79
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2867
   
Games Started280
   
Innings Pitched166.267.7
   
Wins133
   
Losses73
   
Saves038
   
Blown Saves03
   
Holds02
   
Hits Allowed14445
   
Earned Runs6418
   
Home Runs Allowed216
   
Strikeouts196103
   
Walks4521
   
ERA3.462.43
   
WHIP1.140.97
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
News 
 An MRI on James Paxton's left glute revealed nerve irritation.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 28th
Mets reliever Edwin Diaz allowed two earned runs on two hits and no walks while striking out three over an inning of work against the Phillies on Friday. He suffered his seventh blown save of the season but was able to escape with the win.
Mike Maher
Sat, Sep 7th
 James Paxton was removed from Friday’s start versus the Rangers with a tight left glute.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 27th
Edwin Diaz (1-7) allowed two earned runs on two hits without recording an out to blow the save in Tuesday’s 11-10 loss to the Nationals. He took his seventh loss of the season.
Brad Camara
Wed, Sep 4th
 James Paxton struck out seven and allowed one run (none earned) on three hits and zero walks across six innings while earning a victory in a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 22nd
Mets reliever Edwin Diaz struck out the only batter he faced to close out Monday's win over the Nationals. He did not record a save in the 7-3 win.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 3rd
 James Paxton allowed one run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts across five innings while earning a win against the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 15th
Mets reliever Edwin Diaz struck out all three batters he faced in a scoreless inning during Wednesday's loss to the Chicago Cubs.
Mike Maher
Thu, Aug 29th
 James Paxton gave up four hits and three walks while striking out seven through 6 2/3 scoreless innings to take the win over the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 10th
Edwin Diaz was removed from the Mets' game against the Braves on Saturday night with an apparent injury.
Dan Harris
Sat, Aug 24th
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
The Mets acquired Diaz to serve as their new closer, and he should be one of the first two closers off the board in all fantasy leagues following his dominant 2018 in Seattle.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Diaz won't record another 57 saves, tied for the second-most ever in a single season. Yet he's the top fantasy closer after cementing a 1.91 ERA with a nasty 124 strikeouts in 73.1 innings. He fixed 2017's walk woes, cutting his walk rate from 11.6 to 6.1%. Those elite numbers are going to cost a bounty on draft day, so investors can't afford much regression if he keeps going around the top 50.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
There is a top tier of three or four closers, but among them, Diaz is likely the best. He racked up 124 Ks in 73 innings last year, and while you can't bank on 57 saves again, 40 is well within question for a surprisingly good Mets team this year. His ratios will surely be stellar, but even so, with only 70 innings, they won't help you enough to warrant using a fifth or even earlier pick on him or any other closer.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros