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Who Should I Draft?

Edwin Diaz or Sonny Gray (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
Expert
Recommendation
53%
Recommended by
27 of 51 experts
47%
Recommended by
24 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 26# 28
Best Rank# 18# 16
Worst Rank# 58# 120
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 81# 90
Best Rank# 71# 80
Worst Rank# 90# 111
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts102179
Wins411
Saves300
ERA3.043.79
WHIP1.121.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 46
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 25# 41
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 26# 32
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 25# 48
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 25# 35
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 25# 43
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 22# 31
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 20# 43
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 27
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 21# 44
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 39
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 27# 31
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 24# 31
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 27# 31
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 32# 33
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 27# 35
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 30# 34
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 27# 28
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 24# 31
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 50
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 18# 49
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 28# 49
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 24# 26
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 24# 27
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 26# 28
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 22# 120
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 23# 32
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 24# 23
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 25
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 26# 23
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 28# 22
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 28# 21
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 28# 20
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 19
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 29# 19
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 30# 17
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 22
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 30# 23
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 30# 16
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 31# 18
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 31# 21
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 25
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 28
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 34# 20
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 36# 16
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 36# 25
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 37# 35
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 38# 22
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 38# 20
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 40# 20
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 58# 28
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2611
   
Games Started011
   
Innings Pitched26.256.2
   
Wins25
   
Losses13
   
Saves60
   
Blown Saves40
   
Holds10
   
Hits Allowed1842
   
Earned Runs523
   
Home Runs Allowed24
   
Strikeouts5072
   
Walks1426
   
ERA1.753.70
   
WHIP1.251.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played6429
   
Games Started029
   
Innings Pitched62.9157.6
   
Wins411
   
Losses38
   
Saves300
   
Blown Saves110
   
Holds30
   
Hits Allowed47132
   
Earned Runs2166
   
Home Runs Allowed819
   
Strikeouts102179
   
Walks2359
   
ERA3.043.79
   
WHIP1.121.22
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
News 
 Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth inning and nailed down his 30th save of the season. The Mets won 3-2 Sunday.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Mon, Sep 20th
Sonny Gray did not factor into the decision Friday against the Nationals, allowing four runs on five hits in four innings. He walked four and struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
 Edwin Diaz allowed two runs on two hits, one walk, and two strikeouts in one inning. He blew the win for starter Rich Hill on Friday, but the Mets scored four runs in the top of the tenth to take the lead and redeem Diaz.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Tue, Sep 7th
Sonny Gray (7-8) was saddled with the loss Saturday against the Dodgers, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 18th
 Edwin Diaz was perfect in the ninth inning with two strikeouts Thursday. The Mets won 4-3 and are one game under .500 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Sep 3rd
Sonny Gray (7-7) took the loss Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on three hits and one walk in seven innings. He struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 12th
 Edwin Diaz struck out two in a perfect inning for his 27th save. The Mets won 3-1 and swept an unconventional doubleheader on Tuesday.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Sep 1st
Sonny Gray did not factor into the decision in Monday's loss to the Cubs, allowing three runs (two earned) on three hits in five innings. He struck out eight and walked none.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Sep 6th
 Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth inning to record the save in Saturday's affair against the Nationals. The Mets improved to 62-67 with the win.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Tue, Aug 31st
Sonny Gray (7-6) picked up the win Wednesday against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the doubleheader. He allowed two runs on two hits across five innings. He walked none and struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 1st
Notes 
 Diaz's overall numbers bounced back in a monstrous way last season. He dropped his ERA from a bloated 5.59 in 2019 to a 1.75, and upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 45.5%. He was among the league leaders in nearly every expected statistic (batting average, slugging percentage wOBA, and ERA), and he cut his HR/9 rate from 2.33 to just 0.70. Diaz's walk rate actually regressed, however, as he issued free passes to nearly five batters per nine innings. That's not often a recipe for success from a closer, but Diaz can survive at that rate if he continues to keep the strikeouts up and limit the long balls. In the end, Diaz does carry some risk given his history, but he should be drafted as one of the upper echelon closers in the game, if not a touch behind the truly elite options.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Two dreadful starts late in the season severely hurt what was otherwise a strong 2020 campaign for Gray, though it was a bizarre year. His strikeout rate surpassed 30% for the first time in his career, while his walk rate jumped to 11.1%. He was also far more hittable, particularly his slider and curveball, which had been dominant pitches in 2019. But even if Gray simply repeats his 2020 season, his strikeout rate and decent ERA and WHIP should be enough to make him a borderline SP2 for fantasy leagues. He will likely begin the year on the IL after experiencing back spasms in mid-March, but the injury doesn't sound like it will keep him out for long. Considering we've seen much more than that from him in 2019, fantasy managers should have little hesitation drafting him.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros