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Who Should I Draft?

Fernando Tatis Jr. or Mike Trout (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
Expert
Recommendation
80%
Recommended by
40 of 50 experts
20%
Recommended by
10 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 3# 5
Best Rank# 1# 1
Worst Rank# 6# 10
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 2# 5
Best Rank# 2# 3
Worst Rank# 4# 6
   
Projections 
   
Runs108111
Home Runs3643
RBI97109
Stolen Bases2511
Batting Average.286.291
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 2# 5
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 1# 6
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 4# 5
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 2# 5
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 2# 5
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 2# 6
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 1# 6
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 3# 5
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 6
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 4# 6
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 4# 5
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 3# 5
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 2# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 2# 5
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 2# 5
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 2# 3
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 3# 5
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 3# 4
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 3# 5
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 3# 4
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 4# 5
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 2# 6
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 3# 10
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 3# 5
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 5
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 4# 5
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 3# 5
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 3# 5
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 2# 7
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 3# 5
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 4# 5
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 1# 5
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 4# 8
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 1# 2
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 2# 5
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 3# 5
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 2# 5
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 3# 5
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 4# 5
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 3# 6
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 1
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 4# 2
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 4# 3
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 4# 3
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 4# 1
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 5# 2
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 5# 4
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 5# 3
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 5# 2
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 4
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats224199
   
Runs5041
   
Hits6256
   
Singles3228
   
Doubles119
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs1717
   
RBI4546
   
Stolen Bases111
   
Caught Stealing31
   
Walks2735
   
Strikeouts6156
   
Batting Average.277.281
   
On Base Pct.366.390
   
Slugging Pct.571.603
   
On-base Plus Slugging.937.993
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats568520
   
Runs108111
   
Hits161149
   
Singles9174
   
Doubles2827
   
Triples64
   
Home Runs3643
   
RBI97109
   
Stolen Bases2511
   
Caught Stealing83
   
Walks61111
   
Strikeouts165141
   
Batting Average.286.291
   
On Base Pct.357.418
   
Slugging Pct.544.602
   
On-base Plus Slugging.9011.020
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
News 
 Fernando Tatis Jr. went 1-4 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout in the Padres' loss to the Brewers on Wednesday.
Matt Flipi
Thu, Apr 22nd
Mike Trout was removed from Thursday's game against the Astros.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Apr 22nd
 Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. is absent from Tuesday’s lineup against the Brewers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Apr 20th
Angels' CF Mike Trout went 2-for-4 with a single and a solo homer en route to an Angels loss to the Rangers.
Jack Mannis
Wed, Apr 21st
 Fernando Tatis Jr. went 0-3 with a walk, a strikeout, and a run scored in the Padres' loss to the Brewers on Monday.
Matt Flipi
Tue, Apr 20th
Mike Trout went 3-for-4 with a single, a double, and a solo home run en route to a 6-2 victory over the Rangers.
Jack Mannis
Wed, Apr 21st
 Fernando Tatis Jr. went 1-6 with a home run and an RBI in the Padres' extra-inning loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Tatis also committed an error in the game.
Matt Flipi
Sat, Apr 17th
Mike Trout went 1-for-2 Friday evening, walking twice to go along with two RBI. The Angels beat the Twins 10-3.
Andy Zimmerman
Sat, Apr 17th
 The Padres officially activated star SS Fernando Tatis Jr. from the injured list Friday.
Brad Camara
Fri, Apr 16th
Angels' CF Mike Trout went 2-4 with a single, a double, and a run scored in Wednesday's 6-1 loss to the Royals.
Jack Mannis
Wed, Apr 14th
Notes 
 Tatis Jr. has a bit of a shoulder issue, but nothing suggests he'll need to miss any time. He had an outstanding rookie year, but because he had outperformed his Statcast data so significantly, many fantasy managers were worried that his numbers would regress in 2020. Although his batting average did come down (to a still respectable .277), he not only staved off regression, but he improved significantly in most areas. He cut his strikeout rate by 6%, upped his walk rate by 2.5%, and led the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. The fact that he's likely to throw in 25-30 steals over the course of a full season is just the cherry on top of elite fantasy production. He's a top-five overall pick with little or no downside and massive upside even off his incredible 2020 numbers, so long a there are no further developments with his shoulder.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
For one of the first times since he took the league by storm, Trout is not the consensus top pick this year. It's hardly his fault, though it's fair to point out some of the negatives with his 2020 season. He batted a career-low .281, and posted his worst walk- and strikeout-rates since 2015. He also stole only one base. But Trout's move down the overall baseball rankings is due more to his competition for the top spot, rather than his numbers. He was still among the league leaders in quality of contact and every expected statcast metric, and was on pace to hit 50 home runs over the course of a full season. Trout is entering his age-30 season, so although we've seen him rebound from poor stolen base years before, it now seems unlikely that he'll ever get back to much past low-double digits. That keeps him out of the top spot in rotisserie rankings, but his incredibly high floor makes him a top-five overall draft pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Tatis Jr. set the world on fire during July and August. September wasn't as pretty, however, as the electrifying shortstop hit just 208/.311/.403 in 90 plate appearances. This still generated a 96 wRC+, which means that even at his worst Tatis was only 4% worse than league average. He still hit four homers and stole four bases. Also, it was only one month. Tatis doesn't have a track record long enough for us to feel confident in him as a slump-proof bat, but only Ronald Acuña rivals his 40/40 upside.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
You won't find a safer first-round investment in all of fantasy baseball. However, entering Trout's age-29 season, it's now fair to consider several others worthy of the No. 1 overall pick come draft day. The biggest argument against Trout is a lack of stolen base upside. Trout swiped just one bag during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Still, the well-rounded power and on-base skills aren't going anywhere just yet.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros