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Who Should I Draft?

Fernando Tatis Jr. or Xander Bogaerts (2020)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
Expert
Recommendation
87%
Recommended by
39 of 45 experts
13%
Recommended by
6 of 45 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 15# 20
Best Rank# 8# 15
Worst Rank# 31# 50
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 19# 32
Best Rank# 14# 28
Worst Rank# 33# 35
   
Projections 
   
Runs3232
Home Runs1110
RBI2735
Stolen Bases92
Batting Average.286.300
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 25
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 19
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 21# 50
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 23
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 16# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 8# 17
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 10# 34
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 8# 27
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 14# 21
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 26
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 21# 24
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 17# 20
   
Chet Gresham
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 21
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 20
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 10# 23
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 14# 19
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 15# 22
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 14# 18
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 11# 25
   
Mark Ross
Athlon Sports
# 16# 20
   
Matt Brandon
Matt Brandon
# 16# 19
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 14# 24
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 16# 19
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 22
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 20
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 23
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 15# 25
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 21# 24
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 24# 27
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 14# 28
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 23
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 17# 20
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 20# 28
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 13# 22
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 17# 24
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 10# 23
   
Sean Zerillo
The Action Network
# 20# 27
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 20# 21
   
Chris Mitchell
FantasyData
# 11# 19
   
George Kurtz
FantasyData
# 20# 16
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 20# 15
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 21# 19
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 24# 21
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 27# 23
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 31# 22
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
2019 Stats 
   
   
At Bats334614
   
Runs61110
   
Hits106191
   
Singles65106
   
Doubles1352
   
Triples60
   
Home Runs2233
   
RBI53117
   
Stolen Bases164
   
Caught Stealing62
   
Walks3076
   
Strikeouts110122
   
Batting Average.317.311
   
On Base Pct.379.385
   
Slugging Pct.590.557
   
On-base Plus Slugging.969.942
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
2020 Projections 
   
   
At Bats204211
   
Runs3232
   
Hits5863
   
Singles3636
   
Doubles916
   
Triples31
   
Home Runs1110
   
RBI2735
   
Stolen Bases92
   
Caught Stealing31
   
Walks1924
   
Strikeouts6243
   
Batting Average.286.300
   
On Base Pct.346.371
   
Slugging Pct.513.516
   
On-base Plus Slugging.859.887
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
News 
 Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) is starting in Monday's Cactus League matchup against the Dodgers, leading off and playing shortstop.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Mar 9th
Xander Bogaerts went 1-for-1 with a run scored and a walk in his Grapefruit League game against the Rays on Wednesday.
John Aubin
Thu, Mar 12th
 Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) returned to action at Padres camp on Friday.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Mar 7th
Xander Bogaerts (ankle) will start at shortstop and bat third Thursday in the Red Sox's Grapefruit League game against the Astros, Chris Cotillo of The Springfield Republican reports.
John Aubin
Thu, Mar 5th
 Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) returned to the Padres' spring training facility Thursday, but will need a few more days to recover before rejoining the team's lineup in game action.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Mar 5th
Xander Bogaerts (ankle) will make his spring debut Wednesday, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports.
John Aubin
Wed, Mar 4th
 Padres GM A.J. Preller says the team has no plans to move Fernando Tatis Jr. to center field.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Feb 13th
Manager Ron Roenicke said Sunday that Xander Bogaerts (ankle) is "still a ways away" from playing in games, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
John Aubin
Sun, Mar 1st
  Xander Bogaerts is dealing with a sore ankle and will take it easy for the next few days.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Feb 16th
Notes 
 Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the more polarizing players for draft season. When we revisit this article next year, we'll either be looking at Tatis as a top-five pick or as a source of debate over how far he should fall after his disappointing second year in the bigs. We know the differential with his expected stats, but do we talk about his plate discipline enough? He had a 29.6 K% last year, with only an 8 BB%. The walk rate is passable, but if Tatis keeps striking out at that rate, it's going to hurt his overall game. Suddenly, you're looking at a guy with 180 strikeouts who's hitting .260. The power/speed combo that he brings is nice, but you can get similar production later in the draft waiting on someone like Bo Bichette, who has a much safer floor for batting average.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
If you look at the early shortstops taken - Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Alex Bregman - Bogaerts was able to add his name as far as fantasy value to that core four last year, but he's cheaper this year. Why? Well, despite having the breakout season in 2019, there wasn't a lot below the surface that was really different. Bogaerts is a good player, but is he that much better than the other options at the position that can be had rounds later? If he repeats the breakout, sure. If not, you're breaking even with the pick at best.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
 Tatis was sensational in his half of season with 22 homers, 16 steals and a .317 batting average but every underlying metric available to us screams significant regression. He is a strong source of power and speed but expect the BA to plummet.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Bogaerts had an outstanding 2019 season, obliterating his career-high in home runs and RBI and getting his batting average back over .300. But the thing is, his underlying metrics don't look all that different from his solid but unspectacular 2018 season. His strikeout rate, hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, and launch angle all remained nearly identical, while his steals (only four) continued to trend down to a now useless level from a fantasy perspective. Bogaerts is still a fine option but at a strong position and now batting in a weaker lineup, be careful not to waste too high a pick on him.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 This is high for such a young player with so little track record, but dual-threat HR/SB guys are running out at this stage in drafts. 20/20/.280 is a lock, 25/25/310 is possible and he qualifies at SS. I can't justify drafting a Non-Base stealing bat ahead of Tatis when he should provide 15-20 bases falling out of bed even if he was to miss 20 or so games due to injury. The floor is too high.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData
It may be difficult to believe but Bogaerts outperformed even Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner and Gleyber Torres last year thanks to 110+ runs and 100+ RBIs to go with a .311 BA and 33 homers. His ceiling may not be as high as the others, but he is excellent in every non-steals category.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros