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Who Should I Draft?

Hyun Jin Ryu or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Hyun Jin Ryu
SP - TOR
Hyun Jin Ryu
Expert
Recommendation
70%
Recommended by
35 of 50 experts
30%
Recommended by
15 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 20# 21
Best Rank# 14# 13
Worst Rank# 46# 121
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 56# 62
Best Rank# 51# 56
Worst Rank# 60# 69
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts174158
Wins912
Saves00
ERA3.633.64
WHIP1.201.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 26
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 26
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 24# 29
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 23
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 43
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 24# 121
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 22# 37
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 26# 34
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 23# 28
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 22
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 20# 23
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 25# 28
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 14# 21
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 21# 33
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 20# 24
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 16# 24
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 18# 20
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 18# 20
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 18# 21
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 14# 22
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 19
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 25# 41
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 18# 24
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 18# 19
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 22# 25
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 20# 28
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 17# 25
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 14# 16
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 20# 37
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 20# 37
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 20# 22
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 15# 25
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 24# 34
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 19# 29
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 16# 26
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 24# 13
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 19# 14
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 42# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 22# 17
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 19# 18
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 20# 18
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 18
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 32# 19
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 21# 19
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 24# 19
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 23# 21
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 27# 21
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 38# 21
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 26# 24
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 38# 26
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Hyun Jin Ryu
SP - TOR
Hyun Jin Ryu
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started912
   
Innings Pitched60.367.1
   
Wins45
   
Losses12
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed3761
   
Earned Runs1421
   
Home Runs Allowed26
   
Strikeouts8872
   
Walks2417
   
ERA2.112.82
   
WHIP1.021.16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Hyun Jin Ryu
SP - TOR
Hyun Jin Ryu
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2929
   
Games Started2729
   
Innings Pitched142.1167.5
   
Wins912
   
Losses78
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed120161
   
Earned Runs5768
   
Home Runs Allowed1823
   
Strikeouts174158
   
Walks5138
   
ERA3.633.64
   
WHIP1.201.18
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Hyun Jin Ryu
SP - TOR
Hyun Jin Ryu
News 
 Corbin Burnes (1-1) was phenomenal against the Cubs on Wednesday, tossing six shutout innings while allowing two hits and no walks. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 14th
Hyun Jin Ryu (1-1) earned the win Tuesday after holding the Yankees to one run on four hits and a walk while striking out seven across 6 2/3 innings.
John Aubin
Wed, Apr 14th
 Corbin Burnes threw six shutout innings, allowing only one hit while striking out nine in Thursday's loss to the Cardinals.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Apr 9th
Hyun Jin Ryu (0-1) allowed two runs on seven hits and struck out seven over seven innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday by a 2-1 score.
John Aubin
Thu, Apr 8th
 Corbin Burnes (0-1) gave up one run while striking out 11 across 6.1 innings against the Twins on Saturday. He was tagged with the loss.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Apr 4th
Hyun Jin Ryu allowed two runs on four hits and one walk while striking out five over 5 1/3 innings in Thursday's win over the Yankees. He didn't factor into the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, Apr 1st
 Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez says Corbin Burnes' changeup looks way better than last year.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Feb 21st
Hyun Jin Ryu is slated to make his 2021 Spring debut on Friday.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Mar 3rd
Notes 
 Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Fantasy managers expected some regression from Ryu after his career season in 2019 and with him moving to the Blue Jays, but it really didn't come. He continued to be among the best in the game at limiting opposing batters' quality of contact, and upped his strikeout rate to 26.2%, second best of his career. Ryu's 2.69 ERA was a bit higher than the 2.32 mark he put up in in 2019, but his FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA were all the same or better than the previous year. In short, other than the potential for injury, which hasn't been a factor in the last two seasons, there's no reason to doubt Ryu at this point.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Ryu fits well on certain roto builds. His elite ERA and WHIP numbers give fantasy managers a very strong base at those rate stats. It's much easier to find high-upside strikeout arms later in drafts, which pair well with Ryu's floor. Over the past three seasons only Jacob deGrom (2.10) has a lower ERA than Ryu (2.30).
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros