Who Should I Draft?

Jacob deGrom or Aaron Nola (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Jacob deGrom
SP - NYM
Jacob deGrom
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
95%
Recommended by
56 of 59 experts
5%
Recommended by
3 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 3# 7
Best Rank# 1# 3
Worst Rank# 7# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 10# 25
Best Rank# 9# 23
Worst Rank# 13# 31
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts246210
Wins1514
Saves00
ERA2.733.21
WHIP1.051.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 1# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 2# 9
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 2# 5
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 2# 5
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 2# 6
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 3# 6
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 2# 6
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 2# 6
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 3# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 2# 8
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 2# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 2# 7
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 3# 6
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 3# 6
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 3# 7
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 2# 8
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 2# 8
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 3# 9
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 3# 4
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 3# 6
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 3# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 2# 7
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 3# 12
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 3# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 3# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 3# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 2# 6
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 2# 9
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 2# 8
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 3# 5
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 3# 4
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 5# 13
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 2# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 2# 10
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 3# 6
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 2# 10
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 2# 10
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 2# 8
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 2# 9
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 2# 4
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 2# 10
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 3# 7
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 3# 4
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 4# 9
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 3# 9
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 4# 9
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 3# 6
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 3# 10
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 3# 4
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 2# 6
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 2# 6
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 3# 7
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 3# 4
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 2# 9
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 3# 4
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 2# 6
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 4# 3
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 6# 3
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 7# 6
   
  Jacob deGrom
SP - NYM
Jacob deGrom
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3233
   
Games Started3233
   
Innings Pitched217.1212.2
   
Wins1017
   
Losses96
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed152149
   
Earned Runs4156
   
Home Runs Allowed1017
   
Strikeouts269224
   
Walks4658
   
ERA1.702.37
   
WHIP0.910.97
   
  Jacob deGrom
SP - NYM
Jacob deGrom
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3132
   
Games Started3132
   
Innings Pitched207.4196.5
   
Wins1514
   
Losses99
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed167169
   
Earned Runs6370
   
Home Runs Allowed1920
   
Strikeouts246210
   
Walks5255
   
ERA2.733.21
   
WHIP1.051.14
   
  Jacob deGrom
SP - NYM
Jacob deGrom
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 Mets starter Jacob deGrom tossed seven shutout innings in Friday's win over the Reds, allowing four hits and no walks while striking out nine.
Mike Maher
Sat, Sep 21st
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in Thursday's loss to the Atlanta Braves. The loss drops him to 12-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Sep 20th
 Mets starter Jacob deGrom allowed one earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in Monday's win over the Diamondbacks. The win brings him to 9-8 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
 Jake DeGrom allowed four runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out six through seven innings in Tuesday’s 11-10 loss to the Nationals. He did not factor into the decision.
Brad Camara
Wed, Sep 4th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
 Mets starter Jacob deGrom allowed four earned runs on five hits and no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in Thursday's loss to the Cubs. The loss drops him to 8-8 on the season.
Mike Maher
Thu, Aug 29th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
 Mets starter Jacob deGrom allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk while striking out 13 over seven innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Friday.
Mike Maher
Sat, Aug 24th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Notes 
 deGrom was magical in 2018 and while there is a chance that continues into this season, we have to remember that the two prior seasons, he carried a 3.32 ERA with just 382 Ks and 22 wins. While that makes for a useful pitcher, the risk of him returning to that leaves him below Sale and Scherzer's tier
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 DeGrom was already a high-end starter, but he took his performance to another level in 2019, boosting his strikeout rate to over 11 Ks per nine, cutting his walk rate to less than two BBs per nine, and posting a ridiculous 1.70 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He only won 10 games, but still produced just as much fantasy value as Max Scherzer. DeGrom's strikeout rate, while excellent, isn't on the same level as Scherzer or Chris Sale, and his ERA and WHIP can't help but creep up a bit this year. Don't pay for last season's stats, but deGrom should still be one of the first four pitchers taken in fantasy drafts.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Because of his suffering, deGrom might have killed the win for good. He became the first qualified starter since 2015 to post an ERA (1.70) or FIP (1.99) below 2.00 and the first since Clayton Kershaw in 2014 to do both. He recorded 28 quality starts in 32 turns, but only won 10 games because wins and the Mets are bad. He'd be destined for better fortune even if backed up by a Double-A lineup, but the Mets have added Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, and Wilson Ramos to a now quality lineup. He closed the season with 24 straight quality starts, offering at least six strikeouts each time. His ERA will rise above 2.00, maybe even 2.50, but deGrom is a legitimate top-three ace who should pair 250 strikeouts with elite ratios, and probably more wins.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros