Who Should I Draft?
James Karinchak or Chris Paddack (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| James Karinchak RP - CLE  | Chris Paddack SP - SD  | |
Expert |
54% Recommended by 13 of 24 experts |
46% Recommended by 11 of 24 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 35 | # 39 |
| Best Rank | # 15 | # 19 |
| Worst Rank | # 62 | # 68 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 104 | # 103 |
| Best Rank | # 92 | # 96 |
| Worst Rank | # 119 | # 111 |
| Projections | ||
| Strikeouts | 101 | 142 |
| Wins | 3 | 10 |
| Saves | 25 | 0 |
| ERA | 3.16 | 3.82 |
| WHIP | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 33 | # 35 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 51 | # 62 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 28 | # 68 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 39 | # 42 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 28 | # 47 |
| Chris Meaney FTN | # 37 | # 41 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 36 | # 58 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 31 | # 40 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 39 | # 42 |
| Ryan Amore Pitcher List | # 15 | # 55 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 29 | # 37 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 17 | # 19 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 50 | # 53 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 30 | # 22 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 32 | # 29 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 33 | # 30 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 34 | # 33 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 36 | # 35 |
| Tim McCullough Baseball Prospectus | # 37 | # 34 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 41 | # 35 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 42 | # 40 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 43 | # 39 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 48 | # 37 |
| Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall | # 62 | # 40 |
| James Karinchak RP - CLE | Chris Paddack SP - SD | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| Games Played | 27 | 12 |
| Games Started | 0 | 12 |
| Innings Pitched | 27.0 | 59.2 |
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
| Saves | 1 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 3 | 0 |
| Holds | 8 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 14 | 60 |
| Earned Runs | 8 | 31 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 1 | 14 |
| Strikeouts | 53 | 58 |
| Walks | 16 | 12 |
| ERA | 2.67 | 4.73 |
| WHIP | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| James Karinchak RP - CLE | Chris Paddack SP - SD | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| Games Played | 61 | 25 |
| Games Started | 0 | 25 |
| Innings Pitched | 61.8 | 137.0 |
| Wins | 3 | 10 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Saves | 25 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 9 | 0 |
| Holds | 5 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 40 | 125 |
| Earned Runs | 22 | 58 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 6 | 20 |
| Strikeouts | 101 | 142 |
| Walks | 35 | 32 |
| ERA | 3.16 | 3.82 |
| WHIP | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| James Karinchak RP - CLE | Chris Paddack SP - SD | |
| News | ||
| Padres RHP Chris Paddack says he worked on the spin rate and spin efficiency of his fastball this offseason. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Sun, Feb 21st | ||
| Notes | ||
| Karinchak is expected to be Cleveland's closer after Brad Hand moved on to the Nationals, though it's not a sure thing yet. Yes, he walks too many batters (5.33 per nine innings), but you can get away with it when you strike out nearly half the batters you face and hitters bat .151 against you overall. Karinchak has two absolutely devastating pitches: a mid-90's fastball (.184 batting average against, .151 xBA) and a power curveball (.140 batting average against, .114 xBA). Cleveland may not have a ton of success this year and hence save opportunities may be limited, but Karinchak can be a dominant fantasy reliever if he gets the job. Monitor reports out of the spring to see when and if Terry Francona formerly anoints him as the closer. If he does, he should vault to being a top-6 or 7 reliever. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Paddack followed up his stellar rookie campaign with a subpar sophomore season, as his ERA rose to 4.73 and his WHIP to 1.22, while his strikeout rate dipped below one per inning. Paddack's bread and butter changeup was as good as ever in 2020 (and even better than in 2019), but his usually outstanding fastball just fell apart. After batters hit .204 with a .391 slugging percentage and .275 wOBA against the pitch in 2019, they hit .308 with a .658 slugging percentage and .407 wOBA against it in 2020. Paddack added a cutter in 2020, and it's possible that the addition of the pitch impacted the way he threw his fastball, as the vertical movement of it fell significantly. Either way, Paddack has too much talent to see his ERA hover around 5.00. There's risk given what we saw last year, but it's baked into his draft price. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| 16.5 - 2.60 - 1.10 Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports | 9.2 - 3.80 - 1.20 Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports | |
| "Special K" used the third-highest rate of elevated four seamers to produce a dominant season out of the bullpen. 53 strikeouts in 27 innings led to the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball (behind only Devin Williams). Karinchak was blocked for saves by Brad Hand during the 2020 season, but his departure this offseason opens the door for Karinchak to handle ninth inning duties. Assuming Cleveland doesn't sign a "traditional" veteran closer, then I'd aggressively draft Karinchak as a top-three reliever for fantasy baseball purposes. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | ||
