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Who Should I Draft?

James Karinchak or Chris Paddack (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Expert
Recommendation
54%
Recommended by
13 of 24 experts
46%
Recommended by
11 of 24 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 35# 39
Best Rank# 15# 19
Worst Rank# 62# 68
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 104# 103
Best Rank# 92# 96
Worst Rank# 119# 111
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts101142
Wins310
Saves250
ERA3.163.82
WHIP1.211.15
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 33# 35
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 51# 62
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 68
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 39# 42
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 47
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 37# 41
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 58
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 31# 40
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 39# 42
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 15# 55
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 29# 37
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 17# 19
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 50# 53
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 30# 22
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 32# 29
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 33# 30
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 33
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 36# 35
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 37# 34
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 41# 35
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 42# 40
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 43# 39
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 48# 37
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 62# 40
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2712
   
Games Started012
   
Innings Pitched27.059.2
   
Wins14
   
Losses25
   
Saves10
   
Blown Saves30
   
Holds80
   
Hits Allowed1460
   
Earned Runs831
   
Home Runs Allowed114
   
Strikeouts5358
   
Walks1612
   
ERA2.674.73
   
WHIP1.111.22
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played6125
   
Games Started025
   
Innings Pitched61.8137.0
   
Wins310
   
Losses37
   
Saves250
   
Blown Saves90
   
Holds50
   
Hits Allowed40125
   
Earned Runs2258
   
Home Runs Allowed620
   
Strikeouts101142
   
Walks3532
   
ERA3.163.82
   
WHIP1.211.15
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  James Karinchak
RP - CLE
James Karinchak
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
News 
  Padres RHP Chris Paddack says he worked on the spin rate and spin efficiency of his fastball this offseason.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Feb 21st
Notes 
 Karinchak is expected to be Cleveland's closer after Brad Hand moved on to the Nationals, though it's not a sure thing yet. Yes, he walks too many batters (5.33 per nine innings), but you can get away with it when you strike out nearly half the batters you face and hitters bat .151 against you overall. Karinchak has two absolutely devastating pitches: a mid-90's fastball (.184 batting average against, .151 xBA) and a power curveball (.140 batting average against, .114 xBA). Cleveland may not have a ton of success this year and hence save opportunities may be limited, but Karinchak can be a dominant fantasy reliever if he gets the job. Monitor reports out of the spring to see when and if Terry Francona formerly anoints him as the closer. If he does, he should vault to being a top-6 or 7 reliever.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Paddack followed up his stellar rookie campaign with a subpar sophomore season, as his ERA rose to 4.73 and his WHIP to 1.22, while his strikeout rate dipped below one per inning. Paddack's bread and butter changeup was as good as ever in 2020 (and even better than in 2019), but his usually outstanding fastball just fell apart. After batters hit .204 with a .391 slugging percentage and .275 wOBA against the pitch in 2019, they hit .308 with a .658 slugging percentage and .407 wOBA against it in 2020. Paddack added a cutter in 2020, and it's possible that the addition of the pitch impacted the way he threw his fastball, as the vertical movement of it fell significantly. Either way, Paddack has too much talent to see his ERA hover around 5.00. There's risk given what we saw last year, but it's baked into his draft price.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 16.5 - 2.60 - 1.10
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
9.2 - 3.80 - 1.20
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
 "Special K" used the third-highest rate of elevated four seamers to produce a dominant season out of the bullpen. 53 strikeouts in 27 innings led to the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball (behind only Devin Williams). Karinchak was blocked for saves by Brad Hand during the 2020 season, but his departure this offseason opens the door for Karinchak to handle ninth inning duties. Assuming Cleveland doesn't sign a "traditional" veteran closer, then I'd aggressively draft Karinchak as a top-three reliever for fantasy baseball purposes.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros