Who Should I Draft?

James Paxton or Edwin Diaz (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Expert
Recommendation
53%
Recommended by
31 of 59 experts
47%
Recommended by
28 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 13# 14
Best Rank# 11# 5
Worst Rank# 31# 24
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 50
Best Rank# 47# 46
Worst Rank# 55# 53
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196103
Wins133
Saves038
ERA3.462.43
WHIP1.140.97
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 15# 17
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 16# 19
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 20
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 21
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 16
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 16
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 18
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 22
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 16
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 15
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 19
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 21
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 16
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 20
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 14
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 23
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 14# 21
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 21
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 15
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 21
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 18
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 20
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 22
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 17
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 15# 24
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 17
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 22
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 15
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 20
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 15
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 11
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 12
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 13
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 14
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 14
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 5
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 14
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 15
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 15
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 10
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 15
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 15
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 11
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 14
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 13
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 16
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 15
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 14
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 16
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 15
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 15
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 18
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 8
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 22
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 20
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 18
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 16
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 15
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2873
   
Games Started280
   
Innings Pitched160.173.1
   
Wins110
   
Losses64
   
Saves057
   
Blown Saves04
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed13441
   
Earned Runs6716
   
Home Runs Allowed235
   
Strikeouts208124
   
Walks4217
   
ERA3.761.96
   
WHIP1.100.79
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2867
   
Games Started280
   
Innings Pitched166.267.7
   
Wins133
   
Losses73
   
Saves038
   
Blown Saves03
   
Holds02
   
Hits Allowed14445
   
Earned Runs6418
   
Home Runs Allowed216
   
Strikeouts196103
   
Walks4521
   
ERA3.462.43
   
WHIP1.140.97
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
News 
 James Paxton earned the win Friday, allowing two runs on five hits and striking out 11 in a 10-2 win over the Dodgers.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 24th
Mets reliever Edwin Diaz walked one and struck out one over 1/3 of an inning to earn the save in Thursday's win over the Braves. The save was his 25th of the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Aug 16th
 James Paxton allowed four runs on six hits with three walks and four strikeouts across five innings but was able to pick up the win against the Indians on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 17th
Mets reliever Edwin Diaz allowed two runs in New York's win over the Pirates on Saturday, his fourth consecutive appearance in which he has allowed at least one run. Mets manager Mickey Callaway was asked about Diaz and the closer situation after the game and said, “We have to be open-minded...We can’t lock ourselves into one thing,” according to Tim Healey on Twitter.
Mike Maher
Sun, Aug 4th
 James Paxton earned the win after allowing three runs over six innings as the Yankees defeated the Orioles 8-5.
Brandon Plutner
Mon, Aug 12th
Mets closer Edwin Diaz allowed one earned run but managed to close the door for his 24th save in Wednesday's win over the White Sox.
Mike Maher
Thu, Aug 1st
 James Paxton improved to 7-6 on the year as the Yankees completed a sweep of the Orioles.
Brandon Plutner
Thu, Aug 8th
Mets closer Edwin Diaz blew his fifth save of the season in Tuesday's win over the White Sox, allowing one earned run on two walks while striking out two. He also hit a batter and threw a wild pitch.
Mike Maher
Wed, Jul 31st
 James Paxton picked up the win after allowing two runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings Friday against the Red Sox.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 3rd
Mets closer Edwin Diaz allowed one run on one hit but managed to convert his 23rd save of the season in Sunday's win over the Pirates.
Mike Maher
Mon, Jul 29th
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
The Mets acquired Diaz to serve as their new closer, and he should be one of the first two closers off the board in all fantasy leagues following his dominant 2018 in Seattle.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Diaz won't record another 57 saves, tied for the second-most ever in a single season. Yet he's the top fantasy closer after cementing a 1.91 ERA with a nasty 124 strikeouts in 73.1 innings. He fixed 2017's walk woes, cutting his walk rate from 11.6 to 6.1%. Those elite numbers are going to cost a bounty on draft day, so investors can't afford much regression if he keeps going around the top 50.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
There is a top tier of three or four closers, but among them, Diaz is likely the best. He racked up 124 Ks in 73 innings last year, and while you can't bank on 57 saves again, 40 is well within question for a surprisingly good Mets team this year. His ratios will surely be stellar, but even so, with only 70 innings, they won't help you enough to warrant using a fifth or even earlier pick on him or any other closer.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros