Who Should I Draft?

James Paxton or Jack Flaherty (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Jack Flaherty
SP - STL
Jack Flaherty
Expert
Recommendation
66%
Recommended by
39 of 59 experts
34%
Recommended by
20 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 17
Best Rank# 11# 11
Worst Rank# 31# 54
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 60
Best Rank# 47# 55
Worst Rank# 55# 68
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196189
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.463.49
WHIP1.141.19
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 15# 23
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 16# 18
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 18
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 21
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 33
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 17
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 17
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 38
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 39
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 23
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 15
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 24
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 19
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 17
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 20
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 33
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 28
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 15
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 18
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 19
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 19
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 54
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 26
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 18
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 35
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 18
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 18
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 17
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 21
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 32
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 18
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 22
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 22
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 15# 16
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 25
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 21
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 24
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 16
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 13
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 14
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 14
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 13
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 14
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 14
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 15
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 14
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 17
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 11
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 12
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 18
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 16
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 15
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 19
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 27
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 13
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 19
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Jack Flaherty
SP - STL
Jack Flaherty
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2828
   
Games Started2828
   
Innings Pitched160.1151.1
   
Wins118
   
Losses69
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed134108
   
Earned Runs6756
   
Home Runs Allowed2320
   
Strikeouts208182
   
Walks4259
   
ERA3.763.34
   
WHIP1.101.11
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Jack Flaherty
SP - STL
Jack Flaherty
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2830
   
Games Started2830
   
Innings Pitched166.2168.6
   
Wins1312
   
Losses79
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed144140
   
Earned Runs6465
   
Home Runs Allowed2121
   
Strikeouts196189
   
Walks4561
   
ERA3.463.49
   
WHIP1.141.19
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Jack Flaherty
SP - STL
Jack Flaherty
News 
 James Paxton struck out seven and allowed one run (none earned) on three hits and zero walks across six innings while earning a victory in a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 22nd
Jack Flaherty did not factor into the decision in Thursday's win over the Cubs, allowing one run on three hits over eight innings. He struck out eight and walked one.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 20th
 James Paxton allowed one run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts across five innings while earning a win against the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 15th
Jack Flaherty (10-8) took the loss Saturday against the Brewers, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 15th
 James Paxton gave up four hits and three walks while striking out seven through 6 2/3 scoreless innings to take the win over the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 10th
Jack Flaherty (10-7) picked up the win Sunday against the Pirates, tossing eight scoreless innings while allowing five hits and one walk. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 8th
 James Paxton pitched seven shutout innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, while striking out 12 as the Yankees defeated the Rangers 10-1.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Sep 3rd
Jack Flaherty (9-7) dominated the Giants en route to his ninth win Tuesday. He tossed eight scoreless innings, while allowing one hit and one walk. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 4th
 James Paxton allowed two earned runs in five innings and improved to 11-6 on the year as the Yankees defeated the Mariners 7-3.
Brandon Plutner
Wed, Aug 28th
Jack Flaherty (8-7) took the loss Wednesday against the Brewers, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and one walk across six innings. He struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 28th
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Flaherty was absurdly good last season as a rookie and seemed to improve as the year went on, striking out 95 in 76 second half innings. With that said, his walk rate climbed to a dangerous 3.52 per nine innings by seasons end. He has the upside to strike out 240 batters, but there is some risk here as well
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Flaherty's first full Major League season was an excellent one, as his 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 10.85 K/9 rate demonstrate. But his 3.52 walks per nine were high, and he averaged fewer than six innings per start, limiting his win potential. He also benefited from a .257 BABIP allowed that was low, even for a pitcher with great stuff like Flaherty. If more of those batted balls fall in for base hits, Flaherty may pay a greater price for the free passes this year. His long-term outlook is bright, but there could be some bumps along the way.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Flaherty's 3.34 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 151 rookie innings will justifiably make him a popular pick. Buoyed by a lethal slider and a curveball that didn't yield a single extra-base hit, there's easy 200-strikeout upside if he pitches a full season. Yet a 3.52 BB/9 and 57.2% first-pitch rate make the 23-year-old riskier than the typical SP2. He's best paired with a steady, reliable ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros