Who Should I Draft?

James Paxton or Stephen Strasburg (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
35 of 56 experts
38%
Recommended by
21 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 15
Best Rank# 11# 11
Worst Rank# 31# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 59
Best Rank# 47# 51
Worst Rank# 55# 62
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196187
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.463.40
WHIP1.141.16
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 20
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 16
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 27
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 28
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 16
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 18
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 15
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 25
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 17
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 17
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 28
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 17
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 16
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 17
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 25
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 19
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 16
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 18
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 18
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 15
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 14# 16
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 19
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 20
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 16
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 21
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 17
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 31
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 27
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 19
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 14
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 17
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 18
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 16
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 23
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 17
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 11
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 12
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 13
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 13
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 13
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 15# 14
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 13
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 13
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 16# 15
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 14
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 16
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 18
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 12
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 14
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 19
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 11
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 18
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 20
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2822
   
Games Started2822
   
Innings Pitched160.1130.1
   
Wins1110
   
Losses67
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed134118
   
Earned Runs6754
   
Home Runs Allowed2318
   
Strikeouts208156
   
Walks4238
   
ERA3.763.74
   
WHIP1.101.20
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2828
   
Games Started2828
   
Innings Pitched166.2163.6
   
Wins1312
   
Losses78
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed144142
   
Earned Runs6462
   
Home Runs Allowed2119
   
Strikeouts196187
   
Walks4547
   
ERA3.463.40
   
WHIP1.141.16
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
News 
 James Paxton gave up two runs on eight hits with one walk and struck out seven batters over six innings to pick up a win against the White Sox on Sunday.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 16th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed six earned runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. The loss drops him to 7-4 on the year.
Mike Maher
Sun, Jun 16th
 James Paxton was handed the loss after surrendering six runs on seven hits over 2 2/3 innings during Game 2 of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Mets. He struck out one and walked two.
John Aubin
Wed, Jun 12th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed one earned run on six hits and no walks while striking out six over seven innings in a win over the San Diego Padres Sunday. The win brings him to 7-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Jun 10th
 James Paxton pitched 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday and allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks. He struck out four and did not factor in the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, Jun 6th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings in a win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday. The win was the 100th of his career and brings him to 6-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Jun 5th
 James Paxton gave up no runs and no hits while walking two and striking out seven over four innings on Wednesday as the Yankees beat the Padres.
John Aubin
Wed, May 29th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed two earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out 11 over seven innings in Tuesday’s win over the Atlanta Braves. The win brings him to 5-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, May 29th
 James Paxton (knee) has been cleared to come off the injured list to start Wednesday versus the Padres.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, May 27th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed two earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five across seven innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Thursday.
Mike Maher
Thu, May 23rd
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Strasburg's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.20) were a little inflated last season, but that can probably be chalked about to statistical noise -- his peripherals were not meaningfully different outside of a spike in his home runs allowed. The bigger concern is a familiar one: durability/health. Strasburg has not pitched more than 175 innings in a season since 2014, and expecting more than 150-175 from him this season would be foolish. That doesn't mean he can't be a top-20 or even top-15 fantasy starter, though.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
It's bad enough Strasburg, still yet to make 30 starts since 2014, threw just 130 innings in 2018. He also recorded the worst ERA (3.74) and FIP (3.62) of his career. Rises in hard-hit rate and exit velocity are concerning, but an elevated 15.7 HR/FB% ultimately did him in. Even if he bounces back to a 3.50 ERA or lower, investors can't reasonably bank on more than 150 innings, a mark he has met once in the last four seasons. Time is running out for the 30-year-old to reach his Cy Young ceiling.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros