Who Should I Draft?

James Paxton or Stephen Strasburg (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
36 of 59 experts
39%
Recommended by
23 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 16
Best Rank# 11# 11
Worst Rank# 31# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 59
Best Rank# 47# 51
Worst Rank# 55# 62
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196187
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.463.40
WHIP1.141.16
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 20
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 16
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 27
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 28
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 16
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 18
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 15
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 25
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 17
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 17
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 28
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 17
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 16
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 17
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 25
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 19
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 16
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 18
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 18
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 15
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 19
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 20
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 16
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 21
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 17
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 31
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 27
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 19
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 14
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 17
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 18
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 15# 19
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 18
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 16
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 23
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 17
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 11
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 12
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 13
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 13
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 13
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 15# 14
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 13
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 13
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 16# 15
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 14
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 16
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 15
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 18
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 12
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 14
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 15
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 19
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 11
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 18
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 20
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2822
   
Games Started2822
   
Innings Pitched160.1130.1
   
Wins1110
   
Losses67
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed134118
   
Earned Runs6754
   
Home Runs Allowed2318
   
Strikeouts208156
   
Walks4238
   
ERA3.763.74
   
WHIP1.101.20
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2828
   
Games Started2828
   
Innings Pitched166.2163.6
   
Wins1312
   
Losses78
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed144142
   
Earned Runs6462
   
Home Runs Allowed2119
   
Strikeouts196187
   
Walks4547
   
ERA3.463.40
   
WHIP1.141.16
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
Stephen Strasburg
News 
 James Paxton allowed one run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts across five innings while earning a win against the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 15th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed two earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in Wednesday's win over the Twins. The win brings him to 17-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 12th
 James Paxton gave up four hits and three walks while striking out seven through 6 2/3 scoreless innings to take the win over the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 10th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Thursday's loss to the Atlanta Braves. The loss drops him to 16-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Sep 6th
 James Paxton pitched seven shutout innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, while striking out 12 as the Yankees defeated the Rangers 10-1.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Sep 3rd
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg tossed eight shutout innings in Saturday's win over the Marlins, striking out 14 while allowing two hits and no walks. The win brings him to 16-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Sun, Sep 1st
 James Paxton allowed two earned runs in five innings and improved to 11-6 on the year as the Yankees defeated the Mariners 7-3.
Brandon Plutner
Wed, Aug 28th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg allowed two earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out 10 over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
 James Paxton earned the win Friday, allowing two runs on five hits and striking out 11 in a 10-2 win over the Dodgers.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 24th
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg tossed seven shutout innings in a no-decision against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, striking out six while allowing four hits and one walk.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Strasburg's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.20) were a little inflated last season, but that can probably be chalked about to statistical noise -- his peripherals were not meaningfully different outside of a spike in his home runs allowed. The bigger concern is a familiar one: durability/health. Strasburg has not pitched more than 175 innings in a season since 2014, and expecting more than 150-175 from him this season would be foolish. That doesn't mean he can't be a top-20 or even top-15 fantasy starter, though.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
It's bad enough Strasburg, still yet to make 30 starts since 2014, threw just 130 innings in 2018. He also recorded the worst ERA (3.74) and FIP (3.62) of his career. Rises in hard-hit rate and exit velocity are concerning, but an elevated 15.7 HR/FB% ultimately did him in. Even if he bounces back to a 3.50 ERA or lower, investors can't reasonably bank on more than 150 innings, a mark he has met once in the last four seasons. Time is running out for the 30-year-old to reach his Cy Young ceiling.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros