Who Should I Draft?

James Paxton or Zack Greinke (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Zack Greinke
SP - ARI
Zack Greinke
Expert
Recommendation
77%
Recommended by
43 of 56 experts
23%
Recommended by
13 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 18
Best Rank# 11# 11
Worst Rank# 31# 41
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 49# 56
Best Rank# 47# 52
Worst Rank# 55# 65
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts196185
Wins1313
Saves00
ERA3.463.68
WHIP1.141.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 23
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 15# 29
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 15# 20
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 16# 17
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 19
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 18
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 23
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 15# 22
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 15# 17
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 12# 29
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 11# 32
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 13# 16
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 22
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 22
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 27# 29
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 26
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 14# 18
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 15
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 41
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 18
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 21
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 15# 25
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 20
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 27
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 16
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 12# 27
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 14# 18
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 19# 28
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 20
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 16# 21
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 17
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 17# 24
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 24
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 36
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 19
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 20
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 12# 17
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 13# 18
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 15# 19
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 20
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 19# 23
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 20
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 12
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 14
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 16# 13
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 16# 15
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 18# 17
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 19# 16
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 19# 17
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 20# 13
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 13
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 16
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 14
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 31# 11
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Zack Greinke
SP - ARI
Zack Greinke
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2833
   
Games Started2833
   
Innings Pitched160.1208.1
   
Wins1115
   
Losses611
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed134181
   
Earned Runs6774
   
Home Runs Allowed2328
   
Strikeouts208199
   
Walks4243
   
ERA3.763.21
   
WHIP1.101.08
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Zack Greinke
SP - ARI
Zack Greinke
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2831
   
Games Started2831
   
Innings Pitched166.2194.9
   
Wins1313
   
Losses711
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed144182
   
Earned Runs6480
   
Home Runs Allowed2125
   
Strikeouts196185
   
Walks4548
   
ERA3.463.68
   
WHIP1.141.18
   
  James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Zack Greinke
SP - ARI
Zack Greinke
News 
 James Paxton (5-3) earned the win after allowing one run on five hits and three walks while striking out seven over five innings Friday night against the Astros.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 22nd
Zack Greinke threw a quality start on Monday versus the Dodgers, allowing three runs in six innings while striking out six.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 25th
 James Paxton gave up two runs on eight hits with one walk and struck out seven batters over six innings to pick up a win against the White Sox on Sunday.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 16th
Zack Greinke was tagged for five runs on 11 hits in seven innings on Wednesday versus Colorado, striking out just two while walking none and taking the loss.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jun 20th
 James Paxton was handed the loss after surrendering six runs on seven hits over 2 2/3 innings during Game 2 of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Mets. He struck out one and walked two.
John Aubin
Wed, Jun 12th
Zack Greinke improved to 8-2 on Thursday in Washington, tossing 7 1/3 shutout innings while allowing just two hits.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jun 14th
 James Paxton pitched 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday and allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks. He struck out four and did not factor in the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, Jun 6th
Zack Greinke improved to 7-2 on Saturday in Toronto, tossing six shutout innings while striking out seven.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
 James Paxton gave up no runs and no hits while walking two and striking out seven over four innings on Wednesday as the Yankees beat the Padres.
John Aubin
Wed, May 29th
Zack Greinke received a no-decision on Saturday versus the Mets, giving up four runs on seven hits in four innings of work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 2nd
Notes 
 Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Greinke's age is now 35 and he did have a rough season three years ago, but besides then, he has been phenomenal since 2009. Expect plenty more of the same in 2019 with excellent ratios, about 15 wins and around 200 strikeouts. This makes him a top 20 starting pitcher for 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Greinke is not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he is a workhorse with pinpoint control who has produced an ERA of 3.21 or better and WHIP of 1.15 or better in five of the last six seasons. There is real value in that consistency. He's an ideal second starter in standard mixed leagues.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Greinke has posted superbly similar ERAs (3.20, 3.21) and WHIP (1.07, 1.08) in the last two years, but the heavily used 35-year-old comes with some warning signs. His average fastball velocity slipped to 89.6 mph, leading to a .361 wOBA against the pitch. He also benefited from his lowest BABIP (.272) and highest strand rate (80.2) since 2015's 1.66 ERA. A cerebral pitcher with elite control, Greinke should avoid bottoming out entirely. Yet the risk is there. He's someone to draft as a steady SP2 rather than a staff anchor.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros