Who Should I Draft?

Javier Baez or Matt Carpenter (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Expert
Recommendation
100%
Recommended by
56 of 56 experts
0%
Recommended by
0 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 18# 50
Best Rank# 6# 12
Worst Rank# 33# 100
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 65
Best Rank# 16# 58
Worst Rank# 23# 72
   
Projections 
   
Runs8797
Home Runs3028
RBI9676
Stolen Bases173
Batting Average.276.256
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 15# 51
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 13# 35
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 36
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 16
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 10# 47
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 14# 39
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 50
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 18# 46
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 65
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 6# 78
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 20# 83
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 11# 68
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 50
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 19# 36
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 9# 12
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 18# 65
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 20# 37
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 24# 26
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 70
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 17# 71
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 9# 100
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 21# 59
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 22# 48
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 19# 40
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 13# 76
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 29# 37
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 15# 78
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 47
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 17# 33
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 16# 53
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 32# 47
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 7# 58
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 36
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 33# 66
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 19# 47
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 33# 48
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 21# 37
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 18# 29
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 21# 50
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 15# 56
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 22# 49
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 51
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 15# 72
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 6# 62
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 22# 51
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 22# 54
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 14# 81
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 20# 57
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 11# 64
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 18# 61
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 22# 55
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 19# 64
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 29# 39
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 70
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 19# 24
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 15# 38
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats606564
   
Runs101111
   
Hits176145
   
Singles9367
   
Doubles4042
   
Triples90
   
Home Runs3436
   
RBI11181
   
Stolen Bases214
   
Caught Stealing91
   
Walks29102
   
Strikeouts167158
   
Batting Average.290.257
   
On Base Pct.326.374
   
Slugging Pct.555.523
   
On-base Plus Slugging.881.897
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats582529
   
Runs8797
   
Hits161135
   
Singles9371
   
Doubles3335
   
Triples52
   
Home Runs3028
   
RBI9676
   
Stolen Bases173
   
Caught Stealing62
   
Walks3395
   
Strikeouts159140
   
Batting Average.276.256
   
On Base Pct.315.369
   
Slugging Pct.507.486
   
On-base Plus Slugging.822.855
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
News 
 Javier Baez went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run and two runs scored in the Cubs'10-1 win over the Rockies' on Wednesday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 13th
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with an RBI on Thursday against the Mets.
Dan Harris
Fri, Jun 14th
 Javier Baez went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in the Cubs' 3-1 win over the Cardinals on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, Jun 8th
Carpenter is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 7th
 Javier Baez went 3-for-4 with a two-run home run in the Cubs' 6-3 win over the Rockies on Tuesday.
Elliott Baas
Tue, Jun 4th
Carpenter was pulled in the top of the eighth inning of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Reds; he was replaced at third base by Jedd Gyorko.
James Bisson
Thu, Jun 6th
 Javier Baez went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, a double, and three RBI in the Cubs' 8-1 win over the Angels on Monday.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 3rd
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit, solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 30th
 Javier Baez (heel) has returned to the Cubs' lineup on Sunday versus the Cardinals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 2nd
Matt Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-2 loss to the Braves on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, May 25th
Notes 
 Baez was excellent last year, hitting 34 homers with 21 steals, 101 runs and a league-leading 111 RBIs. While he is surely a star, every projection model sees those numbers regressing in 2019, especially his batting average which was propped up by a .347 BABIP
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Baez fits into a similar category of player as Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story: shortstops coming off of 30-20 seasons who have sky-high upside but also a bit of risk. The biggest risk for Baez is that his elevated strikeout rate leads to some regression in last season's .290 batting average. He also may not run quite as much after stealing just three bases in the second half last year. Still, Baez should be able to at least produce a .270-30-15 kind of season, which would be enough to keep him among the elite fantasy options at shortstop.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Carpenter blew away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Despite recording the second-worst swinging strike (18.2%) and outside-swing (45.5%) rates, Baez managed to hit .290. Among 17 hitters with a contact rate of 70.0% or lower in at least 300 plate appearances, Aaron Judge was the only one besides Baez to bat above .266. That's a better baseline for 2019. Given his middling 4.5 walk %, he might not reach base enough to steal another 21 bases. Don't pay full freight for an encore.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros