Who Should I Draft?

Javier Baez or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
100%
Recommended by
56 of 56 experts
0%
Recommended by
0 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 18# 48
Best Rank# 6# 16
Worst Rank# 33# 85
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 53
Best Rank# 16# 43
Worst Rank# 23# 70
   
Projections 
   
Runs8775
Home Runs3022
RBI9677
Stolen Bases174
Batting Average.276.300
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 15# 71
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 13# 48
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 51
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 16# 49
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 10# 51
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 14# 44
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 61
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 18# 62
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 30
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 6# 54
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 20# 49
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 11# 82
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 49
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 19# 48
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 9# 66
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 18# 53
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 20# 41
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 24# 49
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 37
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 17# 54
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 9# 16
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 21# 55
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 22# 39
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 19# 45
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 13# 54
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 29# 53
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 15# 70
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 45
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 17# 62
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 16# 44
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 32# 69
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 7
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 42
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 33# 53
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 19# 46
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 33# 45
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 21# 31
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 18# 46
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 21# 36
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 15# 85
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 22# 46
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 28
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 15# 61
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 6# 20
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 22# 42
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 22# 66
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 14# 47
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 20# 38
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 11# 49
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 18# 48
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 22# 36
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 19# 71
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 29# 46
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 54
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 19# 46
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 15# 62
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats606
   
Runs101
   
Hits176
   
Singles93
   
Doubles40
   
Triples9
   
Home Runs34
   
RBI111
   
Stolen Bases21
   
Caught Stealing9
   
Walks29
   
Strikeouts167
   
Batting Average.290
   
On Base Pct.326
   
Slugging Pct.555
   
On-base Plus Slugging.881
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats582482
   
Runs8775
   
Hits161145
   
Singles9393
   
Doubles3329
   
Triples52
   
Home Runs3022
   
RBI9677
   
Stolen Bases174
   
Caught Stealing62
   
Walks3346
   
Strikeouts15972
   
Batting Average.276.300
   
On Base Pct.315.361
   
Slugging Pct.507.505
   
On-base Plus Slugging.822.866
   
  Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
News 
 Javier Baez went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer in the Cubs' 5-3 win over the Mets on Sunday.
Elliott Baas
Sun, Jun 23rd
Vladimir Guerrero Jr went 0-for-4 with a walk and a strikeout on Thursday as the Blue Jays beat the Angels by a 7-5 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Jun 21st
 Javier Baez went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, a triple, two RBI, and two runs scored in the Cubs' 7-4 win over the Mets on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Fri, Jun 21st
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back in the lineup for the Blue Jays in their Sunday game against the Astros. He is batting second and slotted in at DH.
Dan Harris
Sun, Jun 16th
 Javier Baez went 1-for-3 with a single, a steal, and a run scored in the Cubs' 7-3 win over the White Sox on Wednesday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 20th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (hand) is absent from Saturday's lineup versus the Astros.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 15th
 Javier Baez went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run and two runs scored in the Cubs'10-1 win over the Rockies' on Wednesday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 13th
X-rays on the injured hand of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came back negative for any fractures on Friday according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 15th
 Javier Baez went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in the Cubs' 3-1 win over the Cardinals on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, Jun 8th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Friday's game in the second inning after getting beaned on the hand by a Gerrit Cole fastball.
Andrew Gould
Fri, Jun 14th
Notes 
 Baez was excellent last year, hitting 34 homers with 21 steals, 101 runs and a league-leading 111 RBIs. While he is surely a star, every projection model sees those numbers regressing in 2019, especially his batting average which was propped up by a .347 BABIP
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Nobody is doubting Guerrero's skills. Especially not Steamer, as the typically pessimistic projection system has the 19-year-old batting .306/.368/.511 with 22 homers in 550 plate appearances. Toronto's teenage prodigy has nothing left to prove in the minors after collectively batting .381/.437/.636 in Double-A and Triple-A. The problem is opportunity, with the Blue Jays almost certain to hold baseball's top prospect back for service-time manipulation. Since he was never going to make the Opening Day roster, supporters shouldn't get cold feet because of an oblique injury that guarantees a delay to his anticipated arrival. With Ronald Acuna's sensational debut fresh in everyone's mind, there's still little chance of snagging Vlad Jr. at a discount. Don't bite so soon in re-drafts, but it'll get tougher to resist if he lasts to the late fifth or sixth round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Baez fits into a similar category of player as Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story: shortstops coming off of 30-20 seasons who have sky-high upside but also a bit of risk. The biggest risk for Baez is that his elevated strikeout rate leads to some regression in last season's .290 batting average. He also may not run quite as much after stealing just three bases in the second half last year. Still, Baez should be able to at least produce a .270-30-15 kind of season, which would be enough to keep him among the elite fantasy options at shortstop.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
The always conservative Steamer projection model sees Vlad Jr. as a similar player to Nolan Arenado from the get-go with a .300+ BA, 30 homers and both 100 RBIs and runs over a full season's at bats. This issue, however, will be whether he gets those at-bats. You can gamble on him as early as the 4th round, but it may not be early enough to beat others to the punch
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Despite recording the second-worst swinging strike (18.2%) and outside-swing (45.5%) rates, Baez managed to hit .290. Among 17 hitters with a contact rate of 70.0% or lower in at least 300 plate appearances, Aaron Judge was the only one besides Baez to bat above .266. That's a better baseline for 2019. Given his middling 4.5 walk %, he might not reach base enough to steal another 21 bases. Don't pay full freight for an encore.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Guerrero profiles as a future superstar. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won't be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros