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Who Should I Draft?

Jonathan Villar or Ketel Marte (2020)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - MIA
Jonathan Villar
Expert
Recommendation
84%
Recommended by
38 of 45 experts
16%
Recommended by
7 of 45 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 31# 48
Best Rank# 20# 11
Worst Rank# 79# 102
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 55
Best Rank# 34# 37
Worst Rank# 44# 93
   
Projections 
   
Runs3330
Home Runs96
RBI3022
Stolen Bases312
Batting Average.301.265
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 50
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 47
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 34# 49
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 25# 30
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 75# 95
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 26# 51
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 64
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 38# 77
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 34# 43
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 30# 33
   
Chet Gresham
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 42
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 30# 56
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 29# 48
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 26# 48
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 26# 49
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 36# 73
   
Mark Ross
Athlon Sports
# 30# 43
   
Matt Brandon
Matt Brandon
# 20# 42
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 27# 31
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 30# 37
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 28# 29
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 53
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 32# 33
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 32# 38
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 30# 40
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 38# 65
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 22# 38
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 41
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 22# 79
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 42# 66
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 36# 59
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 25# 51
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 54# 58
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 33# 53
   
Sean Zerillo
The Action Network
# 29# 44
   
George Kurtz
FantasyData
# 33# 102
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 28# 35
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 23# 36
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 46# 11
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 38# 28
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 38# 34
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 41# 38
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 45# 43
   
Chris Mitchell
FantasyData
# 79# 45
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 65# 51
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - MIA
Jonathan Villar
2019 Stats 
   
   
At Bats569642
   
Runs97111
   
Hits187175
   
Singles110114
   
Doubles3632
   
Triples95
   
Home Runs3224
   
RBI9273
   
Stolen Bases1040
   
Caught Stealing29
   
Walks5361
   
Strikeouts86176
   
Batting Average.329.273
   
On Base Pct.389.338
   
Slugging Pct.592.450
   
On-base Plus Slugging.981.788
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - MIA
Jonathan Villar
2020 Projections 
   
   
At Bats210204
   
Runs3330
   
Hits6354
   
Singles3836
   
Doubles1310
   
Triples31
   
Home Runs96
   
RBI3022
   
Stolen Bases312
   
Caught Stealing13
   
Walks2020
   
Strikeouts3360
   
Batting Average.301.265
   
On Base Pct.362.330
   
Slugging Pct.513.416
   
On-base Plus Slugging.875.746
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - MIA
Jonathan Villar
News 
  Villar has been working out at multiple positions: centerfield, shortstop, and second base.
Joe Buttgereit - Fantasy Sports Nerdz
Wed, Jul 8th
  Marlins outfielder Jonathan Villar went 2-for-3 with a stolen base and a run scored in Tuesday's win over the Nationals. The steal was his fourth of the Spring.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Tue, Mar 10th
  Marlins outfielder Jonathan Villar went 0-for-1 with a walk, a run scored, and a stolen base in Saturday's matchup against the Washington Nationals. The steal was his third of the Spring.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sun, Mar 8th
  Marlins outfielder Jonathan Villar went 1-for-2 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The homer was his second of the Spring.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Mar 4th
  Marlins utilityman Jonathan Villar went 1-for-3 with two RBI and his first home run of the Spring in Sunday's win over the New York Mets.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Mar 2nd
Notes 
 With second base being as weak as it is, it's kind of shocking that Ketel Marte is going this low in drafts. Sure, the breakout was out of nowhere - despite being a popular breakout pick for three years in a row - but he actually was stronger down the stretch than he was in the first half, and there are very few concerns with his underlying numbers. A change to the baseball could see his home runs come down, but not enough so that he won't return draft-day value.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
Is it really hard to make a case against Jonathan Villar in 2020? I mean, we were fooled just a few years ago with Villar, and he was the biggest bust in fantasy the following year. Why are we doing it again? Sure, he gives you speed, but there's nothing else that you can really bank on. The ballpark change is tough, and if Villar can't adjust in the outfield, he could just be an over-hyped utility-man.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
 Marte suddenly went from being a career .263 hitter with 22 home runs in 1,548 plate appearances to batting .329 with 32 home runs in 628 plate appearances. And while he made many overall gains, such as a massive increase in launch angle, his expected batting average was just .299 and that .030 difference was 10th-highest in MLB. He also upped his pull percentage by a significant amount, and pulled all but one of his home runs, which should be something that pitchers can exploit in 2020. Buy some of the gains, but consider Marte closer to a .290-25 type of hitter.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Villar is moving from a great hitter's park to one of the worst but we are still talking about someone who went 24/40 homers/steals with 111 runs and a .273 batting average. There is some risk, as we saw in the 2017 disappointment
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 There is no one who will deny the likelihood that Marte's .329 batting average drops this year but we are still talking about a kid who hit 32 homers with 10 steals last year. As we've seen with Jose Ramirez and J.D. Martinez, these breakout stars can sometimes even further improve.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Batted over 700(!!) times last season playing half his games in Camden. He moves from one of the best hitter parks to one of the worst. The 24 HRs should drop back down to 15 or so and another 40 steal season would shock me. This guy has been cut multiple times and a 260/12/25 line would not shock me at all. I am letting someone else take the plunge with Villar.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 In the Era of the Juiced ball (and I am sure some juiced bodies too) I am not buying Marte's 2019 power surge and he doesn't run as much as you might think he does. I am not paying for 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases when regression suggests 15-20 HRs and five SBs. Marte won't fall this far and I am fine with that. I will be owning ZERO shares of the 2019 shocker of the year in Fantasy baseball.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData
 
 Marte earned every bit of his 32 HRs last year. His average is almost certain to come down a bit, but his breakout was real, and similar numbers are certainly not out of reach. He is being discounted out of fear for massive regression. I am happy to take the discount.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy