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Who Should I Draft?

Josh Hader or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Expert
Recommendation
59%
Recommended by
30 of 51 experts
41%
Recommended by
21 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 18# 20
Best Rank# 12# 14
Worst Rank# 56# 46
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 54# 56
Best Rank# 51# 51
Worst Rank# 61# 60
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts104174
Wins49
Saves300
ERA2.913.63
WHIP0.981.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 17
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 22# 42
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 18# 24
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 17# 24
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 16# 19
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 37# 46
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 17# 24
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 18# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 19# 22
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 17# 26
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 15# 26
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 16# 38
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 16# 19
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 20# 21
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 20
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 19# 25
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 17# 21
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 27# 32
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 18# 20
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 19# 22
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 17# 27
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 18# 40
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 16# 18
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 16# 25
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 19# 22
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 12# 20
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 17# 20
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 18# 20
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 20# 24
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 17# 19
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 14
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 17# 16
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 18# 16
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 19# 18
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 19# 17
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 19# 15
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 19# 18
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 19# 14
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 20# 16
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 21# 19
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 21# 18
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 21# 18
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 22# 14
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 23# 20
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 24# 20
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 26# 18
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 26# 24
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 23
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 16
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 31# 23
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 56# 19
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2112
   
Games Started09
   
Innings Pitched19.160.3
   
Wins14
   
Losses21
   
Saves130
   
Blown Saves20
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed837
   
Earned Runs814
   
Home Runs Allowed32
   
Strikeouts3188
   
Walks1024
   
ERA3.792.11
   
WHIP0.951.02
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played6229
   
Games Started027
   
Innings Pitched64.6142.1
   
Wins49
   
Losses37
   
Saves300
   
Blown Saves70
   
Holds30
   
Hits Allowed39120
   
Earned Runs2157
   
Home Runs Allowed918
   
Strikeouts104174
   
Walks2451
   
ERA2.913.63
   
WHIP0.981.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
News 
 Josh Hader picked up another save Saturday against the Cubs, allowing one hit, walking one, and striking out two.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on six hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
 Josh Hader picked up save 32 Friday against the Cubs, allowing one hit and striking out one in one inning.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 18th
Corbin Burnes (10-4) earned the win in a masterpiece Saturday against Cleveland. He threw eight no-hit innings while issuing one walk and striking out 14.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 Josh Hader earned the save Saturday against Cleveland, striking out two in one inning.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on six hits across five innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 Josh Hader earned the save Wednesday against the Phillies, walking two in a scoreless inning.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 9th
Corbin Burnes (9-4) picked up the win Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits across six innings. He walked none and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Aug 31st
 Josh Hader picked up the save Wednesday against the Giants, walking one and striking out three in a scoreless inning.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 2nd
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's win over Cincinnati, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 25th
Notes 
 Hader wasn't quite as dominant as he had been the previous two years, largely due to a spike in walk rate and the slightest of declines in strikeout rate. But he still tallied 13 saves, third-best in baseball, and had a miniscule 0.95 WHIP. If you parse it closely, it was just a bizarre season for Hader, who didn't give up a run through his first nine appearances, but subsequently allowed four runs in an inning. He walked five batters in a game, but didn't allow a single walk in any game after that, a span of 11 appearances. In other words, there seems to be a lot of noise in Hader's "decline," which likely would have been ironed out over the course of a full season. Draft him as the top closer off the board with few concerns.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros