Who Should I Draft?

Justin Verlander or Aaron Nola (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Justin Verlander
SP - HOU
Justin Verlander
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
81%
Recommended by
48 of 59 experts
19%
Recommended by
11 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 4# 7
Best Rank# 2# 3
Worst Rank# 10# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 21# 25
Best Rank# 17# 23
Worst Rank# 23# 31
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts243210
Wins1614
Saves00
ERA3.133.21
WHIP1.041.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 5# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 4# 9
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 3# 5
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 4# 6
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 4# 6
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 4# 6
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 5# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 4# 8
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 5# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 4# 7
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 4# 6
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 4# 6
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 5# 7
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 6# 8
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 4# 8
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 4# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 4# 6
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 6# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 4# 7
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 4# 12
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 5# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 4# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 4# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 4# 6
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 4# 9
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 5# 8
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 3# 13
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 4# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 4# 10
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 5# 6
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 4# 10
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 4# 10
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 3# 8
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 4# 9
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 4# 10
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 4# 7
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 3# 9
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 4# 9
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 2# 9
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 3# 6
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 6
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 4# 10
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 4# 6
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 4# 6
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 5# 7
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 4# 9
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 4# 6
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 5# 4
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 5# 4
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 5# 4
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 6# 4
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 6# 5
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 4
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 7# 4
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 7# 5
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 7# 3
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 9# 4
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 10# 3
   
  Justin Verlander
SP - HOU
Justin Verlander
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3433
   
Games Started3433
   
Innings Pitched214.1212.2
   
Wins1617
   
Losses96
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156149
   
Earned Runs6056
   
Home Runs Allowed2817
   
Strikeouts290224
   
Walks3758
   
ERA2.522.37
   
WHIP0.900.97
   
  Justin Verlander
SP - HOU
Justin Verlander
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3132
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched200.0196.5
   
Wins1614
   
Losses89
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed158169
   
Earned Runs7070
   
Home Runs Allowed2620
   
Strikeouts243210
   
Walks5055
   
ERA3.133.21
   
WHIP1.041.14
   
  Justin Verlander
SP - HOU
Justin Verlander
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 Justin Verlander (20-6) allowed two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five through five innings in Sunday's 13-5 win over the Angels. He earned his 20th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Sun, Sep 22nd
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in Thursday's loss to the Atlanta Braves. The loss drops him to 12-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Sep 20th
 Justin Verlander (19-6) allowed four hits and two walks while striking out eight through six scoreless innings in Tuesday's 4-1 win over the Rangers. He earned his 19th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Wed, Sep 18th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
 Justin Verlander (18-6) allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out 11 in Thursday's 3-2 loss to the Athletics. He was charged with his sixth loss of the season.
Brad Camara
Fri, Sep 13th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
 Justin Verlander (18-5) allowed one run on four hits while striking out seven through seven innings in Saturday's 2-1 win over the Mariners. He picked up his 18th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Sun, Sep 8th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
 Justin Verlander (17-5) threw his third-career no hitter, pitching a shutout with one walk and 14 strikeouts in Sunday's 2-0 win over the Blue Jays. He earned his 17th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Mon, Sep 2nd
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Notes 
 Verlander may be turning 36 years old soon, but his velocity is still as impressive as ever and he 2018 was actually his best K% (34.8%, second best 28.1%) of his career while his BB% (4.4%) was his lowest. Don't avoid him because of his age. He is rocking better than ever before
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Verlander has had a long and illustrious career, but he's actually been better than ever since he joined Houston late in the 2017 season. In particular, Verlander has experienced a major boost in his strikeout rate and a big drop in his walk rate since he became an Astro, to the point where he led the league with an absurd 7.84 K/BB ratio last season. If he can manage to perform that feat again, he could produce another season with a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Pitchers aren't supposed to dominate like this in their mid-30s. In his age-35 campaign, Verlander defied the aging curve by posting a 2.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and MLB-high 34.8 K% in 214 innings. He has recorded a 2.97 ERA over the last three seasons, clearing 200 innings and strikeouts apiece each time. Including the playoffs, he has notched a 2.41 ERA since joining the Astros, so age is the only justification to avoid him as a top-five ace. Don't be afraid to grab him near the end-of-second, early-third round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros