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Who Should I Draft?

Kenta Maeda or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Expert
Recommendation
76%
Recommended by
39 of 51 experts
24%
Recommended by
12 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 16# 20
Best Rank# 5# 14
Worst Rank# 36# 46
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 47# 56
Best Rank# 45# 51
Worst Rank# 61# 60
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts177174
Wins129
Saves00
ERA3.833.63
WHIP1.131.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 17
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 17# 24
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 42
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 15# 24
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 22# 24
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 17# 19
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 28# 46
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 22# 24
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 33# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 17# 22
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 15# 20
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 18# 26
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 26
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 15# 23
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 36# 38
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 16# 21
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 16# 25
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 21
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 14# 32
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 14# 19
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 16# 20
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 15# 19
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 15# 18
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 15# 18
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 15# 27
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 19# 40
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 23
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 18
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 22# 25
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 18
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 13# 18
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 22
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 10# 20
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 16# 17
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 11# 20
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 19# 20
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 16# 20
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 15# 24
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 5# 16
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 15# 14
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 16# 15
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 16
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 16
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 20# 19
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 20# 14
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 14
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 22# 20
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 23# 19
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 24# 22
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 26# 18
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1112
   
Games Started119
   
Innings Pitched67.160.3
   
Wins64
   
Losses11
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed4037
   
Earned Runs2014
   
Home Runs Allowed92
   
Strikeouts8088
   
Walks1024
   
ERA2.702.11
   
WHIP0.751.02
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3029
   
Games Started2927
   
Innings Pitched160.7142.1
   
Wins129
   
Losses87
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed136120
   
Earned Runs6857
   
Home Runs Allowed2318
   
Strikeouts177174
   
Walks4651
   
ERA3.833.63
   
WHIP1.131.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
News 
 Kenta Maeda is set to undergo season-ending surgery on Wednesday, according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Ari Koslow
Fri, Aug 27th
Corbin Burnes (10-4) earned the win in a masterpiece Saturday against Cleveland. He threw eight no-hit innings while issuing one walk and striking out 14.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 Twins' SP Kenta Maeda is seeking second opinions on his forearm injury, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Jack Mannis
Tue, Aug 24th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on six hits across five innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 Kenta Maeda was placed on the 10-day IL due to forearm tightness. It is unclear when he will be back.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Aug 23rd
Corbin Burnes (9-4) picked up the win Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits across six innings. He walked none and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Aug 31st
 Kenta Maeda exited Saturday’s start against the Yankees with forearm tightness.
Chris Schommer
Sat, Aug 21st
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's win over Cincinnati, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 25th
 The Twins are pushing Kenta Maeda's next start back to Saturday against the Yankees.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 18th
Corbin Burnes (8-4) picked up the win Tuesday against the Cardinals, tossing six shutout innings while allowing two hits and two walks. He struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 18th
Notes 
 Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 In 2020 Maeda joined Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber as the only three starters to finish top-five in both xFIP and xERA. It was a dominant campaign as his new team, the Twins, finally unleashed him in a way the Dodgers never did. Maeda also finished top-five in swinging strike rate last summer. He admittedly faced the easiest "hub" against AL/NL Central foes, but a large number of his 2021 starts will come against similar opponents. There's still profit to be had with his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros