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Who Should I Draft?

Kenta Maeda or Craig Kimbrel (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
50 of 51 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 16# 61
Best Rank# 5# 35
Worst Rank# 36# 108
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 47# 164
Best Rank# 45# 153
Worst Rank# 61# 233
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts17779
Wins123
Saves024
ERA3.833.65
WHIP1.131.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 108
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 55
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 17# 61
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 52
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 15# 72
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 22# 58
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 17# 55
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 28# 76
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 54
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 22# 83
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 33# 69
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 17# 58
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 15# 54
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 18# 74
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 54
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 15# 63
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 20# 63
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 16# 71
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 22# 48
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 16# 65
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 20# 86
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 73
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 14# 89
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 14# 59
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 16# 64
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 15# 63
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 68
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 15# 68
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 15# 98
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 24# 51
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 15# 50
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 19# 63
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 62
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 58
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 26# 70
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 22# 47
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 58
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 13# 61
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 64
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 10# 42
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 16# 75
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 15# 80
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 11# 67
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 19# 58
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 16# 58
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 16# 39
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 15# 87
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 23# 103
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 5# 98
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 36# 35
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1118
   
Games Started110
   
Innings Pitched67.115.0
   
Wins60
   
Losses11
   
Saves02
   
Blown Saves01
   
Holds03
   
Hits Allowed4010
   
Earned Runs209
   
Home Runs Allowed92
   
Strikeouts8028
   
Walks1012
   
ERA2.705.28
   
WHIP0.751.43
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3056
   
Games Started290
   
Innings Pitched160.754.1
   
Wins123
   
Losses82
   
Saves024
   
Blown Saves011
   
Holds04
   
Hits Allowed13640
   
Earned Runs6822
   
Home Runs Allowed238
   
Strikeouts17779
   
Walks4626
   
ERA3.833.65
   
WHIP1.131.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
News 
 Kenta Maeda is set to undergo season-ending surgery on Wednesday, according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Ari Koslow
Fri, Aug 27th
Craig Kimbrel had a rough ninth inning, allowing a one out double followed by two walks and a sacrifice fly that scored a run. He did chip in two strikeouts though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
 Twins' SP Kenta Maeda is seeking second opinions on his forearm injury, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Jack Mannis
Tue, Aug 24th
Craig Kimbrel pitched the seventh inning on Saturday, allowing one hit while striking out three batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
 Kenta Maeda was placed on the 10-day IL due to forearm tightness. It is unclear when he will be back.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Aug 23rd
Craig Kimbrel came into the ninth with a seven run lead but ended up giving up three earned runs on two hits and a walk. He would strike out two batters though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Aug 28th
 Kenta Maeda exited Saturday’s start against the Yankees with forearm tightness.
Chris Schommer
Sat, Aug 21st
Craig Kimbrel pitched one inning, allowing one hit while also striking out one batter to earn his 24th save of the season and first with the White Sox.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Fri, Aug 27th
 The Twins are pushing Kenta Maeda's next start back to Saturday against the Yankees.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 18th
Craig Kimbrel didn't allow a ball to leave the infield on Monday, but lost the game after an infield hit, a wild pitch, a sacrifice ground ball, and another wild pitch. He would also walk a batter and strike out two.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 24th
Notes 
 Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
As a whole, Kimbrel's 2020 numbers were abysmal. A 5.28 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a walk rate of 17.4%. And yet, there were some encouraging signs. Not only did his strikeout rate bounce back to 40.6%, but he was actually an elite pitcher after his first four outings. How elite? He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and stuck out 53.1% of the batters he faced. It wasn't perfect, as Kimbrel still walked five batters per nine innings over that stretch. But he showed that he still has some has left in the tank. Although he never reclaimed the closer's job despite his strong finish, it's a good bet that the Cubs hand him the ninth-inning role to start, as they try to rebuild his trade value in the final year of his deal. That means Kimbrel should at least get save chances for the first several weeks of the season, and, as such, should be drafted as low-end second closer with just a modicum of upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 In 2020 Maeda joined Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber as the only three starters to finish top-five in both xFIP and xERA. It was a dominant campaign as his new team, the Twins, finally unleashed him in a way the Dodgers never did. Maeda also finished top-five in swinging strike rate last summer. He admittedly faced the easiest "hub" against AL/NL Central foes, but a large number of his 2021 starts will come against similar opponents. There's still profit to be had with his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Over his final 14 appearances (12 2/3 IP) Kimbrel registered a 27:7 K:BB ratio to go along with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. I'd like confirmation from the Cubs that he's entering the season as the closer before going "all in" on drafting him, but as long as he gets the ninth inning I'll be interested. Kimbrel has likely turned off many fantasy managers with some ugly blowup performances the past two years. This creates a buying opportunity. Kimbrel is a perfect candidate to draft for those who prefer to wait on saves.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros