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Who Should I Draft?

Kenta Maeda or Dinelson Lamet (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Dinelson Lamet
SP - SD
Dinelson Lamet
Expert
Recommendation
81%
Recommended by
17 of 21 experts
19%
Recommended by
4 of 21 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 17# 33
Best Rank# 10# 8
Worst Rank# 37# 63
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 52# 89
Best Rank# 47# 58
Worst Rank# 66# 117
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts182184
Wins1210
Saves00
ERA3.873.34
WHIP1.161.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 19# 29
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 50
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 18# 43
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 19# 40
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 16# 31
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 19# 57
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 31
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 17# 31
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 16# 23
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 11# 36
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 63
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 16# 46
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 23# 27
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 16# 31
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 10# 34
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 14# 17
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 24# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 20# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 25# 20
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 37# 26
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 37# 25
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Dinelson Lamet
SP - SD
Dinelson Lamet
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1112
   
Games Started1112
   
Innings Pitched67.169.0
   
Wins63
   
Losses11
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed4039
   
Earned Runs2016
   
Home Runs Allowed95
   
Strikeouts8093
   
Walks1020
   
ERA2.702.09
   
WHIP0.750.86
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Dinelson Lamet
SP - SD
Dinelson Lamet
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3025
   
Games Started2925
   
Innings Pitched165.6142.6
   
Wins1210
   
Losses86
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed142111
   
Earned Runs7153
   
Home Runs Allowed2417
   
Strikeouts182184
   
Walks5052
   
ERA3.873.34
   
WHIP1.161.14
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Dinelson Lamet
SP - SD
Dinelson Lamet
News 
  Padres RHP Dinelson Lamet (elbow) enters spring training on the same schedule as the rest of the team's starting pitchers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Feb 17th
  Padres RHP Dinelson Lamet (elbow) has progressed to mound work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jan 29th
  The Padres and RHP Dinelson Lamet avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.2 million contract.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jan 15th
Notes 
 Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Lamet had a dominant curveball in 2019 which he threw 31.7% of the time. Batters hit just .105 against it that year with a .193 wOBA. But Lamet ditched it entirely in 2020, and instead replaced it by greatly upping his slider usage, from 12.2% in 2019 to 53.4% in 2020. And somehow, his slider was even better than his curveball ever was. Batters hit 0.80 against it with a .120 slugging percentage and a .141 wOBA. It was, simply put, the best pitch in baseball last year. Unfortunately, Lamet's arm couldn't hold up to the stress, and he missed the end of the regular season and the playoffs because of an elbow injury. He underwent PRP therapy on his elbow in October and is progressing well, but the Padres' focus on adding starting pitching this offseason suggests that they are not expecting to have Lamet for the full season. Monitor his health this spring, but understand that even if he begins the year healthy, there are plenty of injury concerns.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros