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Who Should I Draft?

Kenta Maeda or Josh Hader (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
32 of 51 experts
37%
Recommended by
19 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 16# 18
Best Rank# 5# 12
Worst Rank# 36# 56
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 47# 54
Best Rank# 45# 51
Worst Rank# 61# 61
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts177104
Wins124
Saves030
ERA3.832.91
WHIP1.130.98
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 31
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 17# 26
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 22
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 15# 18
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 28# 37
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 17# 19
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 15# 24
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 15# 31
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 16# 20
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 16# 19
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 17
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 14# 27
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 14# 21
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 16# 18
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 15# 56
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 15# 21
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 15# 21
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 15# 17
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 28
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 16# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 16# 19
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 13# 26
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 19
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 10# 12
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 16# 19
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 15# 22
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 11# 23
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 16# 18
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 16# 19
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 15# 20
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 5# 18
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 17# 16
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 18# 17
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 18# 17
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 19# 17
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 19# 18
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 20# 16
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 20# 19
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 21# 16
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 22# 16
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 22# 17
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 22# 17
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 22# 17
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 23# 17
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 24# 19
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 26# 16
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 33# 18
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 20
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 36# 16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1121
   
Games Started110
   
Innings Pitched67.119.1
   
Wins61
   
Losses12
   
Saves013
   
Blown Saves02
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed408
   
Earned Runs208
   
Home Runs Allowed93
   
Strikeouts8031
   
Walks1010
   
ERA2.703.79
   
WHIP0.750.95
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3062
   
Games Started290
   
Innings Pitched160.764.6
   
Wins124
   
Losses83
   
Saves030
   
Blown Saves07
   
Holds03
   
Hits Allowed13639
   
Earned Runs6821
   
Home Runs Allowed239
   
Strikeouts177104
   
Walks4624
   
ERA3.832.91
   
WHIP1.130.98
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Josh Hader
RP - MIL
Josh Hader
News 
 Kenta Maeda is set to undergo season-ending surgery on Wednesday, according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Ari Koslow
Fri, Aug 27th
Josh Hader converted the save Saturday against the Mets, walking one and striking out one in one inning.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
 Twins' SP Kenta Maeda is seeking second opinions on his forearm injury, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Jack Mannis
Tue, Aug 24th
Josh Hader picked up another save Saturday against the Cubs, allowing one hit, walking one, and striking out two.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
 Kenta Maeda was placed on the 10-day IL due to forearm tightness. It is unclear when he will be back.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Aug 23rd
Josh Hader picked up save 32 Friday against the Cubs, allowing one hit and striking out one in one inning.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 18th
 Kenta Maeda exited Saturday’s start against the Yankees with forearm tightness.
Chris Schommer
Sat, Aug 21st
Josh Hader earned the save Saturday against Cleveland, striking out two in one inning.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 The Twins are pushing Kenta Maeda's next start back to Saturday against the Yankees.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 18th
Josh Hader earned the save Wednesday against the Phillies, walking two in a scoreless inning.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 9th
Notes 
 Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Hader wasn't quite as dominant as he had been the previous two years, largely due to a spike in walk rate and the slightest of declines in strikeout rate. But he still tallied 13 saves, third-best in baseball, and had a miniscule 0.95 WHIP. If you parse it closely, it was just a bizarre season for Hader, who didn't give up a run through his first nine appearances, but subsequently allowed four runs in an inning. He walked five batters in a game, but didn't allow a single walk in any game after that, a span of 11 appearances. In other words, there seems to be a lot of noise in Hader's "decline," which likely would have been ironed out over the course of a full season. Draft him as the top closer off the board with few concerns.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 In 2020 Maeda joined Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber as the only three starters to finish top-five in both xFIP and xERA. It was a dominant campaign as his new team, the Twins, finally unleashed him in a way the Dodgers never did. Maeda also finished top-five in swinging strike rate last summer. He admittedly faced the easiest "hub" against AL/NL Central foes, but a large number of his 2021 starts will come against similar opponents. There's still profit to be had with his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros