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Who Should I Draft?

Keston Hiura or Nick Castellanos (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Keston Hiura
1B,2B,DH - MIL
Keston Hiura
Expert
Recommendation
56%
Recommended by
28 of 50 experts
44%
Recommended by
22 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 44# 48
Best Rank# 21# 35
Worst Rank# 64# 74
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 74# 69
Best Rank# 58# 65
Worst Rank# 86# 94
   
Projections 
   
Runs9279
Home Runs3029
RBI8684
Stolen Bases211
Batting Average.269.254
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 57
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 31# 42
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 39# 54
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 62
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 37# 50
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 46# 52
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 52# 59
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 44# 48
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 39# 47
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 46
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 42# 57
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 42# 68
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 48# 54
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 54# 62
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 48# 55
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 30# 47
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 49# 55
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 37# 55
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 26# 44
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 47# 55
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 30# 48
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 39# 74
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 41# 55
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 45# 47
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 21# 69
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 40# 42
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 48# 70
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 30# 62
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 38# 35
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 61# 37
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 50# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 43# 39
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 45# 40
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 58# 40
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 47# 41
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 54# 41
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 56# 42
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 46# 42
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 46# 44
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 51# 45
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 52# 47
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 51# 47
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 48# 47
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 49# 47
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 50# 48
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 60# 49
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 56# 52
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 58# 54
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 61# 59
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 64# 60
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Keston Hiura
1B,2B,DH - MIL
Keston Hiura
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats218217
   
Runs3730
   
Hits4946
   
Singles2229
   
Doubles114
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs1413
   
RBI3432
   
Stolen Bases03
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks1916
   
Strikeouts6985
   
Batting Average.225.212
   
On Base Pct.298.297
   
Slugging Pct.486.410
   
On-base Plus Slugging.784.707
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Keston Hiura
1B,2B,DH - MIL
Keston Hiura
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats585543
   
Runs9279
   
Hits156137
   
Singles8278
   
Doubles4127
   
Triples42
   
Home Runs3029
   
RBI8684
   
Stolen Bases211
   
Caught Stealing25
   
Walks4743
   
Strikeouts158180
   
Batting Average.269.254
   
On Base Pct.324.309
   
Slugging Pct.503.471
   
On-base Plus Slugging.827.780
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Keston Hiura
1B,2B,DH - MIL
Keston Hiura
News 
 Nick Castellanos has returned from his two-game suspension and is in the Reds' lineup on Thursday versus the Diamondbacks.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Apr 22nd
Keston Hiura went 1-for-3 with an RBI and a steal in Monday's win over the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Apr 13th
 Nick Castellanos' appeal of his two-game suspension was denied by Major League Baseball.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Apr 19th
Keston Hiura went 2-for-5 with a home run and three RBI in Saturday's win over the Cardinals.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Apr 10th
 Nick Castellanos went 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI, and two runs scored in Friday's win over Cleveland.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Apr 17th
Keston Hiura went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Monday's loss to the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Apr 6th
 Nick Castellanos went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs scored in Wednesday's win over the Pirates.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 7th
Keston Hiura will be the team’s starting first baseman for 2021, per Brewers president David Stearns.
Brad Camara
Fri, Feb 5th
 Nick Castellanos went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Monday's win over the Pirates.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Apr 6th
 
Notes 
 Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Hiura looked to be on the verge of superstardom heading into 2020, if he could just cut back on his bloated 30.7% strikeout rate. Instead, he struck out more than ever (34.6% of the time), en route to a league-leading 85 strikeouts. That led to a massive drop in production, notably in batting average, which fell from .303 in 2019 to .212 last year. Hiura was never a high-strikeout player in the minors. He never struck out more than 26.3% in any level and he had an overall strikeout rate of just 21%. If he can manage to cut down on the whiffs, he should be a top option at second base given his power and speed, but for now, drop him down your draft board a bit from where he was heading into 2020. He's still a borderline top-five option, especially since he will add first base eligibility after the Brewers signed Kolten Wong, but exercise more caution.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Castellanos posted a career-high ISO in 2020, but it hardly mattered due to a career-worst .257 BABIP. His previous career-low was .294 back in 2013. That number was above .300 in every other season of his career. We saw a glimpse of what he looked like when everything was clicking, and Castellanos appeared to be one of the best hitters in baseball early on in 2020. The expected stats still look great, which makes him someone to invest in come draft day.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Keston Hiura is clearly one of the most volatile players in 2021 drafts. He had a tremendous rookie season, only to come crashing back down to earth in 2020. The main culprit of this downturn was his very high strikeout rate, which has since carried over into spring training. Hiura has always been considered a bat first prospect and has a clear path to 30+ HRs and 15+ SBs, however, he is going to need to cut down on his strikeouts and put the ball in play more often. If he is able to get back into 2019 form, or even close to it, he will be a steal at ADP, if he doesn't, well, he will be a frustrating player to trust. Risk/Reward here with Hiura, and I side with the risk.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  The case for Hiura as a fantasy player this year is entirely based on his prospect pedigree. After functioning as one of the worst defenders in baseball over the past two seasons, Hiura is moving from second base to first base in order to make room for Kolten Wong. Hopefully the new home in the field helps him get back on track at the plate. Hiura's strikeout rate and exit velocity both worsened in his sophomore campaign. Still, we all know it was a weird year and Hiura's track record is one to believe in. I'm fading at his current re-draft ADP, but it's well within the realm of possibilities that he has a strong bounce back season. He's another risk-reward player entering '21.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros