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Who Should I Draft?

Ketel Marte or Yordan Alvarez (2020)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Expert
Recommendation
67%
Recommended by
31 of 46 experts
33%
Recommended by
15 of 46 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 27# 30
Best Rank# 17# 20
Worst Rank# 67# 79
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 38# 40
Best Rank# 33# 34
Worst Rank# 51# 44
   
Projections 
   
Runs3133
Home Runs139
RBI3830
Stolen Bases13
Batting Average.290.298
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL10-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 20# 38
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 27# 34
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 23# 25
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 33# 44
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 41
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 22# 75
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 34
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 17# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 21# 34
   
Chet Gresham
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 30
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 29
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 28# 29
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 24# 26
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 24# 36
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 29# 65
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 33# 38
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 28# 30
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 17# 27
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 28
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 28# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 22# 32
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 22# 33
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 19# 22
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 37
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 19# 36
   
Brendan Tuma
BettingPros
# 22# 28
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 18# 54
   
Sean Zerillo
The Action Network
# 25# 29
   
George Kurtz
FantasyData
# 23# 33
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 25# 28
   
Chris Mitchell
FantasyData
# 23# 79
   
Matt Brandon
Matt Brandon
# 21# 20
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 24# 22
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 24# 23
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 24
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 46# 25
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 30# 25
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 28# 26
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 28# 27
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 33# 28
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 56# 29
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 42# 29
   
Mark Ross
Athlon Sports
# 39# 30
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 67# 34
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 49# 38
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 52# 42
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
2019 Stats 
   
   
At Bats313569
   
Runs5897
   
Hits98187
   
Singles45110
   
Doubles2636
   
Triples09
   
Home Runs2732
   
RBI7892
   
Stolen Bases010
   
Caught Stealing02
   
Walks5253
   
Strikeouts9486
   
Batting Average.313.329
   
On Base Pct.412.389
   
Slugging Pct.655.592
   
On-base Plus Slugging1.067.981
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
2020 Projections 
   
   
At Bats178210
   
Runs3133
   
Hits5263
   
Singles2738
   
Doubles1112
   
Triples03
   
Home Runs139
   
RBI3830
   
Stolen Bases13
   
Caught Stealing01
   
Walks2520
   
Strikeouts5133
   
Batting Average.290.298
   
On Base Pct.379.360
   
Slugging Pct.569.509
   
On-base Plus Slugging.948.869
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
News 
 The Astros placed Yordan Alvarez on the injured list for undisclosed reasons.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jul 13th
 
 Yordan Alvarez has not yet made an appearance at Astros summer camp.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jul 12th
 
 Yordan Alvarez (personal) hasn’t arrived in Houston for spring training 2.0 due to personal reasons.
Brad Camara
Fri, Jul 3rd
 
 The Astros are planning to have Yordan Alvarez play the field more often in 2020.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Mar 21st
 
 Astros manager Dusty Baker says Yordan Alvarez (knee) will not play on Wednesday as previously scheduled.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Mar 10th
 
Notes 
 Ignore the eligibility concerns. Ignore the cheating scandal. Don't totally ignore the knees, but do pay attention to the results. Alvarez put on a historic performance last year across the majors and minors, and there's really nothing to his profile that suggests it wasn't all legit. Before last season, he was really good in the minors, but not quite this good. Fortunately, we can chalk that up to another year of development. Alvarez won't give you steals, but the rest of the numbers are up there with the elite options in fantasy. Yeah, we're talking about a top-five pick if he does it again. He has the pedigree, and he's had the success early in his career.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
With second base being as weak as it is, it's kind of shocking that Ketel Marte is going this low in drafts. Sure, the breakout was out of nowhere - despite being a popular breakout pick for three years in a row - but he actually was stronger down the stretch than he was in the first half, and there are very few concerns with his underlying numbers. A change to the baseball could see his home runs come down, but not enough so that he won't return draft-day value.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
 It was just an 87 game sample size but in that time, Yordan was clearly one of the top five hitters in baseball. He won't steal any bags, but 50 homers, 140 RBIs and a .320 batting average is within the realm of realistic possibilities. He comes with some risk, however, since we haven't seen it for an extended time.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Marte suddenly went from being a career .263 hitter with 22 home runs in 1,548 plate appearances to batting .329 with 32 home runs in 628 plate appearances. And while he made many overall gains, such as a massive increase in launch angle, his expected batting average was just .299 and that .030 difference was 10th-highest in MLB. He also upped his pull percentage by a significant amount, and pulled all but one of his home runs, which should be something that pitchers can exploit in 2020. Buy some of the gains, but consider Marte closer to a .290-25 type of hitter.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Yordan is getting the sophomore discount, meaning you don't have to pay up to get top five player potential. If all goes well, Alvarez will be a monster in all areas except SBs. Perfect third round pick if looking for upside and power. Hits the ball ridiculously hard.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
There is no one who will deny the likelihood that Marte's .329 batting average drops this year but we are still talking about a kid who hit 32 homers with 10 steals last year. As we've seen with Jose Ramirez and J.D. Martinez, these breakout stars can sometimes even further improve.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Swatted 50 homers and 42 doubles between minors and majors in 2019
Brendan Tuma - BettingPros
In the Era of the Juiced ball (and I am sure some juiced bodies too) I am not buying Marte's 2019 power surge and he doesn't run as much as you might think he does. I am not paying for 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases when regression suggests 15-20 HRs and five SBs. Marte won't fall this far and I am fine with that. I will be owning ZERO shares of the 2019 shocker of the year in Fantasy baseball.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData
  Marte earned every bit of his 32 HRs last year. His average is almost certain to come down a bit, but his breakout was real, and similar numbers are certainly not out of reach. He is being discounted out of fear for massive regression. I am happy to take the discount.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy