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Who Should I Draft?

Kyle Hendricks or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Kyle Hendricks
SP - CHC
Kyle Hendricks
Expert
Recommendation
80%
Recommended by
16 of 20 experts
20%
Recommended by
4 of 20 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 24# 27
Best Rank# 16# 20
Worst Rank# 54# 44
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 61# 79
Best Rank# 55# 73
Worst Rank# 78# 85
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts179156
Wins1012
Saves00
ERA3.653.92
WHIP1.241.19
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 27
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 20# 28
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 33
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 26# 27
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 35# 43
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 25# 30
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 25# 30
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 23# 32
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 35# 38
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 24# 27
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 19# 30
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 24# 34
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 19# 22
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 22# 33
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 31# 44
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 18# 31
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 25# 20
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 32# 21
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 34# 29
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Kyle Hendricks
SP - CHC
Kyle Hendricks
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started912
   
Innings Pitched60.381.0
   
Wins46
   
Losses15
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed3773
   
Earned Runs1426
   
Home Runs Allowed210
   
Strikeouts8864
   
Walks248
   
ERA2.112.88
   
WHIP1.021.00
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Kyle Hendricks
SP - CHC
Kyle Hendricks
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2830
   
Games Started2630
   
Innings Pitched146.4185.2
   
Wins1012
   
Losses710
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed125183
   
Earned Runs5981
   
Home Runs Allowed1825
   
Strikeouts179156
   
Walks5637
   
ERA3.653.92
   
WHIP1.241.19
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Kyle Hendricks
SP - CHC
Kyle Hendricks
News 
 Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez says Corbin Burnes' changeup looks way better than last year.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Feb 21st
 
Notes 
 Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Hendricks is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy pitchers in that he never gets the respect he deserves. He's had an ERA above 3.46 once in his career and he's never had a WHIP higher than 1.19. Yes, his strikeout rate is never going to help fantasy managers, but Dave Ross let him go deeper into games last year (Hendricks' 81 innings pitched were among the most in MLB), so he should make up for his lack of strikeout rate with some additional innings. The Cubs probably won't be a great team but the NL Central has mostly weak offenses, so Hendricks should find his way to enough wins to make a difference. Ignore the fact that he outperforms his expected metrics every year. Hendricks is a reliable, high-end SP3 for a fantasy team. Just be sure to take care of strikeouts elsewhere.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Hendricks is the type of fantasy player who can fit perfectly with certain roster construction. As a starting pitcher, he invites contact while suppressing damage on batted balls. This means that his strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. However, the ERA and WHIP are always fantastic, which makes Hendricks a perennially undervalued player. By drafting Hendricks in the middle rounds, fantasy managers can load up on high K/9 players later on.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros