Who Should I Draft?
Kyle Hendricks or Corbin Burnes (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL  | Kyle Hendricks SP - CHC  | |
Expert |
80% Recommended by 16 of 20 experts |
20% Recommended by 4 of 20 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 24 | # 27 |
| Best Rank | # 16 | # 20 |
| Worst Rank | # 54 | # 44 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 61 | # 79 |
| Best Rank | # 55 | # 73 |
| Worst Rank | # 78 | # 85 |
| Projections | ||
| Strikeouts | 179 | 156 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| ERA | 3.65 | 3.92 |
| WHIP | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 16 | # 27 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 20 | # 28 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 16 | # 33 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 26 | # 27 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 35 | # 43 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 25 | # 30 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 25 | # 30 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 23 | # 32 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 35 | # 38 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 24 | # 27 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 19 | # 30 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 24 | # 34 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 19 | # 22 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 22 | # 33 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 31 | # 44 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 18 | # 31 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 25 | # 20 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 32 | # 21 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 54 | # 24 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 34 | # 29 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Kyle Hendricks SP - CHC | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| Games Played | 12 | 12 |
| Games Started | 9 | 12 |
| Innings Pitched | 60.3 | 81.0 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Holds | 0 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 37 | 73 |
| Earned Runs | 14 | 26 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 2 | 10 |
| Strikeouts | 88 | 64 |
| Walks | 24 | 8 |
| ERA | 2.11 | 2.88 |
| WHIP | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Kyle Hendricks SP - CHC | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| Games Played | 28 | 30 |
| Games Started | 26 | 30 |
| Innings Pitched | 146.4 | 185.2 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Losses | 7 | 10 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Holds | 0 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 125 | 183 |
| Earned Runs | 59 | 81 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 18 | 25 |
| Strikeouts | 179 | 156 |
| Walks | 56 | 37 |
| ERA | 3.65 | 3.92 |
| WHIP | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Kyle Hendricks SP - CHC | |
| News | ||
| Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez says Corbin Burnes' changeup looks way better than last year. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Sun, Feb 21st | ||
| Notes | ||
| Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Hendricks is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy pitchers in that he never gets the respect he deserves. He's had an ERA above 3.46 once in his career and he's never had a WHIP higher than 1.19. Yes, his strikeout rate is never going to help fantasy managers, but Dave Ross let him go deeper into games last year (Hendricks' 81 innings pitched were among the most in MLB), so he should make up for his lack of strikeout rate with some additional innings. The Cubs probably won't be a great team but the NL Central has mostly weak offenses, so Hendricks should find his way to enough wins to make a difference. Ignore the fact that he outperforms his expected metrics every year. Hendricks is a reliable, high-end SP3 for a fantasy team. Just be sure to take care of strikeouts elsewhere. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | Hendricks is the type of fantasy player who can fit perfectly with certain roster construction. As a starting pitcher, he invites contact while suppressing damage on batted balls. This means that his strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. However, the ERA and WHIP are always fantastic, which makes Hendricks a perennially undervalued player. By drafting Hendricks in the middle rounds, fantasy managers can load up on high K/9 players later on. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | |
