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Who Should I Draft?

Lance Lynn or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Lance Lynn
SP - CWS
Lance Lynn
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Expert
Recommendation
69%
Recommended by
35 of 51 experts
31%
Recommended by
16 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 17# 20
Best Rank# 12# 14
Worst Rank# 38# 46
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 52# 56
Best Rank# 43# 51
Worst Rank# 65# 60
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts198174
Wins129
Saves00
ERA3.953.63
WHIP1.221.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 14# 24
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 24# 42
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 16# 24
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 20# 24
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 18# 19
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 20# 46
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 19# 24
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 23# 38
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 16# 20
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 20# 26
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 19# 26
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 12# 23
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 18# 38
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 19
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 17# 21
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 18# 20
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 18# 25
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 18# 32
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 15# 19
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 17# 20
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 12# 19
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 16# 18
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 16# 27
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 14# 40
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 18# 23
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 17# 18
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 24# 25
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 17# 18
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 18# 22
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 15# 17
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 15# 20
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 18# 20
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 17# 20
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 21# 24
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 15# 19
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 16
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 17# 14
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 17# 15
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 17# 14
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 17# 14
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 16
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 20# 18
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 20# 16
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 21# 17
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 23# 18
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 25# 22
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 26# 20
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 28# 16
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 28# 21
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 30# 18
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 38# 22
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Lance Lynn
SP - CWS
Lance Lynn
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1312
   
Games Started139
   
Innings Pitched84.060.3
   
Wins64
   
Losses31
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed6437
   
Earned Runs3114
   
Home Runs Allowed132
   
Strikeouts8988
   
Walks2524
   
ERA3.322.11
   
WHIP1.061.02
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Lance Lynn
SP - CWS
Lance Lynn
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3029
   
Games Started3027
   
Innings Pitched184.1142.1
   
Wins129
   
Losses97
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed167120
   
Earned Runs8157
   
Home Runs Allowed2718
   
Strikeouts198174
   
Walks5751
   
ERA3.953.63
   
WHIP1.221.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Lance Lynn
SP - CWS
Lance Lynn
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
News 
 Lance Lynn allowed just two hits in his five innings of work, striking out nine and not allowing a single earned run.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
Corbin Burnes (11-4) earned the win Saturday against the Mets, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. He walked one and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
 The White Sox reinstated RHP Lance Lynn (knee) from the 10-day injured list.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 11th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on six hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
 White Sox pitcher Lance Lynn is expected to start on Sunday against Boston. It will be his first outing since landing on the 10-day injured list with right knee inflammation at the end of August.
Andersen Pickard
Thu, Sep 9th
Corbin Burnes (10-4) earned the win in a masterpiece Saturday against Cleveland. He threw eight no-hit innings while issuing one walk and striking out 14.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 Lance Lynn is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Friday.
Ari Koslow
Wed, Sep 8th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on six hits across five innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 The White Sox placed Lance Lynn on the 10-day injured list with a knee injury.
Corbin Young
Wed, Sep 1st
Corbin Burnes (9-4) picked up the win Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits across six innings. He walked none and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Aug 31st
Notes 
 Lynn turned in another stellar year in 2020, leading MLB with 84 innings pitched, striking out plenty of batters, and keeping his walk rate and overall numbers in check. But there are a few warning signs under the hood, including his 4.19 FIP, his 4.34 xFIP, and his career-high 79.4% LOB rate. Of bigger concern is his trade to the White Sox and hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, particularly because Lynn had a 38.3% fly-ball rate in 2019 and a 42.3% fly-ball rate last year. That led to the worst HR/9 rate of his career and second-worst HR/FB rate (13.8%) in 2020. Countering those troublesome warning signs, however, is the fact that he'll be caught by perhaps the best pitch framer in baseball in Yasmani Grandal, and that will generally help with his numbers which, again, were excellent last year. Add it all up and Lynn's ERA should likely increase simply because of the additional home runs he'll allow if he can't turn around his trend in fly-ball rate, but Grandal's presence and Lynn's general aptitude on the mound should allow for another strong season and make him worthy of a selection as an SP2.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros