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Who Should I Draft?

Lance McCullers Jr. or Joe Musgrove (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
51%
Recommended by
26 of 51 experts
49%
Recommended by
25 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 38# 37
Best Rank# 16# 22
Worst Rank# 77# 67
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 130# 124
Best Rank# 115# 109
Worst Rank# 140# 132
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts158152
Wins1110
Saves00
ERA3.923.72
WHIP1.191.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 46
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 39
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 40
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 41# 45
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 36
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 19# 23
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 28# 36
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 16# 43
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 40# 51
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 42# 49
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 38# 44
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 39# 40
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 34# 39
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 33# 35
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 44# 51
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 33# 41
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 40# 48
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 40# 48
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 36
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 26# 28
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 43# 67
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 34# 47
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 43# 44
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 38# 40
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 30# 44
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 29# 30
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 29# 22
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 37# 25
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 33# 28
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 37# 31
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 38# 32
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 55# 32
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 52# 32
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 38# 32
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 43# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 39# 34
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 43# 37
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 38# 37
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 40# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 40# 38
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 45# 39
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 44# 40
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 61# 41
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 42# 41
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 51# 43
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 55# 43
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 54# 44
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 56# 44
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 66# 49
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 77# 49
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 57# 52
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played811
   
Games Started811
   
Innings Pitched40.155.1
   
Wins13
   
Losses53
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed3344
   
Earned Runs1724
   
Home Runs Allowed55
   
Strikeouts5556
   
Walks1620
   
ERA3.863.93
   
WHIP1.241.16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2926
   
Games Started2926
   
Innings Pitched154.4144.2
   
Wins1110
   
Losses87
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed145126
   
Earned Runs6760
   
Home Runs Allowed2116
   
Strikeouts158152
   
Walks3948
   
ERA3.923.72
   
WHIP1.191.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
News 
 Joe Musgrove went six innings on Friday, allowing three earned runs on four hits and five walks. He did still manage to strike out seven batters though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Sep 11th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed three runs (two earned) over six innings of work against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. His final line included seven hits, two walks, eight strikeouts, and the no-decision. Houston ultimately fell to Arizona by a score of 6-4 in 10 innings.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Sep 19th
 Joe Musgrove went 5.1 inning on Saturday, allowing two earned runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out four batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed one run (a solo homer) over six innings of work against the Angels on Sunday. His final line included three hits, two walks, seven strikeouts, and the win. Houston ultimately defeated Los Angeles by a score of 3-1.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Sep 12th
 Joe Musgrove only allowed three hits and two walks in his nine innings of work while also striking out nine batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Aug 28th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed two runs over six innings of work against the Mariners on Sunday evening. His final line included four hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts. Houston ultimately defeated Seattle by a score of 11-2.
Andersen Pickard
Tue, Sep 7th
 Joe Musgrove pitched six innings of one-run ball, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out nine batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Aug 22nd
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. threw five scoreless innings en route to earning the no-decision against the Mariners on Tuesday. His final line included four hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Houston ultimately fell to Seattle by a score of 4-0.
Andersen Pickard
Wed, Sep 1st
 Joe Musgrove pitched five innings on Saturday, allowing six earned runs on 10 hits and two walks while striking out four.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Aug 15th
Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. allowed four runs on five hits over 6.2 innings of work against the Royals on Wednesday afternoon. His final line also included four walks, seven strikeouts, and the no-decision as Houston ultimately defeated Kansas City by a score of 6-5 in 10 innings.
Andersen Pickard
Wed, Aug 25th
Notes 
 Musgrove has been a popular sleeper the last two seasons and now that he's been traded to the Padres, his ADP is surely going to rise. In 2019, Musgrove continued to improve as a pitcher, upping his strikeout rate and adding velocity. But his 2020 season looked like a step back, until he returned from the IL strong, including finishing his season with back-to-back scoreless outings while getting back some of the lost zip on his fastball. Overall, Musgrove's 2020 numbers suggest a breakout waiting to happen, as he built significantly on his gains in 2019, increasing his strikeout rate to 33.1%. His chances for wins should improve dramatically in San Diego, and he's a fine fourth starter with upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
McCullers made a successful return from Tommy John surgery after missing the 2019 season and looked almost exactly like the 2018 version of himself. His ERA (3.93) and WHIP (1.16) were within seven-tenths of a point of his 2018 numbers, and his walk and strikeout rates fell just slightly. McCullers relied a bit more on his sinker and less on his curveball than in past years, but the two work well together and he continued to throw them in combination about 80% of the time. In short, what you thought of McCullers heading into 2018 is pretty much what you should think of him now. Unfortunately, that includes concerns about his innings, because after a missed year and 55 innings last year, the chances of him topping 150 innings this season are remote. Buy him at his production, but understand that there's likely a hard cap on his innings total.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Over his final four starts of the 2020 season Musgrove posted an exceptional 34:5 K:BB ratio in just 22 innings. In 34 starts from the beginning of 2019 through August 2020 his swinging strike rate sat at 11.9%. In September 2020 that figure jumped to 16.3%. So here we are again. Musgrove is an annual breakout candidate among fantasy analysts, and last year's hot finish combined with the move to San Diego won't temper expectations at all. Musgrove is an upside starting pitcher option come draft day.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros