Who Should I Draft?

Luis Castillo or Robbie Ray (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Robbie Ray
SP - ARI
Robbie Ray
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
52%
Recommended by
29 of 56 experts
48%
Recommended by
27 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 40# 41
Best Rank# 26# 22
Worst Rank# 118# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 116# 128
Best Rank# 110# 114
Worst Rank# 133# 846
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts205169
Wins1011
Saves00
ERA3.753.86
WHIP1.301.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 36# 38
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 44
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 39
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 29# 56
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 41# 56
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 31# 34
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 32# 46
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 40# 45
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 37# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 39# 46
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 35# 38
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 60
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 34# 48
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 33# 45
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 42# 53
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 38# 54
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 31# 35
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 38# 46
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 44# 54
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 38# 39
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 39# 44
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 49# 61
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 37
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 42# 67
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 34# 39
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 35# 42
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 65# 78
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 33# 41
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 37# 39
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 59# 22
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 26# 25
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 36# 28
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 50# 28
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 41# 30
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 31# 30
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 49# 33
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 40# 33
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 46# 34
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 48# 35
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 40# 35
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 47# 37
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 44# 38
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 39# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 40# 38
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 41# 39
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 46# 39
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 50# 40
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 41# 40
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 50# 41
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 118# 41
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 43# 42
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 51# 42
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 45# 44
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 68# 54
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 81# 59
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 73# 66
   
  Robbie Ray
SP - ARI
Robbie Ray
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2431
   
Games Started2431
   
Innings Pitched124.1170.2
   
Wins610
   
Losses212
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed97158
   
Earned Runs5481
   
Home Runs Allowed1928
   
Strikeouts165165
   
Walks7049
   
ERA3.934.30
   
WHIP1.351.22
   
  Robbie Ray
SP - ARI
Robbie Ray
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2930
   
Games Started2930
   
Innings Pitched160.1169.9
   
Wins1011
   
Losses810
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed133156
   
Earned Runs6773
   
Home Runs Allowed2124
   
Strikeouts205169
   
Walks7552
   
ERA3.753.86
   
WHIP1.301.22
   
  Robbie Ray
SP - ARI
Robbie Ray
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Robbie Ray fell to 5-4 on Friday versus the Nationals, giving up five runs on five hits in six innings of work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 15th
Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in the Reds' 3-2 win over the Astros on Monday. He walked six and struck out seven while improving to 7-1.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
 Robbie Ray improved to 5-3 on Sunday in Toronto, throwing 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball while striking out 10.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
 Robbie Ray fell to 4-3 on Monday versus the Dodgers, allowing three runs on six hits in seven innings of work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 4th
Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
 Robbie Ray fell to 4-2 on Wednesday in Colorado, giving up five runs (four earned) on eight hits in just 4 2/3 innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, May 30th
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
 Robbie Ray improved to 4-1 on Friday in San Francisco, striking out nine while allowing two runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, May 25th
Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over 5.1 innings in the Reds' 4-2 win over the Cubs on Thursday. He walked one and struck out six while improving to 5-1.
Elliott Baas
Fri, May 17th
Notes 
 Ray took a big step backward last year in the ratios but still racked up 165 Ks in just over 120 innings pitcher. There is still upside for an ace pitcher here and the floor may be about what we got last year which didn't kill anyone's championship hopes. He makes for a quality mid-round pick.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Ray was an obvious regression candidate coming off his phenomenal 2017 season, and regress he did. While his strikeout rate remained elite, his walk rate ballooned to over 5.00 per nine innings, inflating his WHIP back up to 1.35. Ray is really hard to hit, so he's capable of keeping his ERA under 4.00, but the WHIP isn't likely to be pretty, which makes him hard to rely on as a weekly starter in standard mixed leagues.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Everything went right for Ray in 2017, when he registered a 2.89 ERA despite a 3.94 BB/9 and 3.72 FIP. An oblique strain limited him to just 123.2 innings in 24 starts last season, and 70 walks led to a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He remained just as tough to hit with a .215 batting average against and 12.01 K/9, so he could bounce back to the 218 strikeouts procured in 2016 and 2017 even if again held below 175 frames. Yet the ballooning walk rate makes him a WHIP liability, and run support could be scarce from a ransacked Diamondbacks lineup.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros