Who Should I Draft?

Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
Expert
Recommendation
64%
Recommended by
38 of 59 experts
36%
Recommended by
21 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 41# 48
Best Rank# 22# 24
Worst Rank# 78# 226
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 128# 149
Best Rank# 114# 136
Worst Rank# 846# 157
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts169147
Wins1111
Saves00
ERA3.863.84
WHIP1.221.23
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 38# 39
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 44# 53
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 53
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 38# 46
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 56# 226
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 22# 61
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 64
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 44
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 46# 56
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 45# 56
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 30# 84
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 42# 54
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 41# 113
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 38# 48
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 35# 49
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 34# 35
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 35# 40
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 46# 52
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 54# 66
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 103
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 38# 74
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 39# 57
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 41# 86
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 63
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 33# 63
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 37# 53
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 44# 48
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 52
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 39# 56
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 25# 41
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 41# 48
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 43# 67
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 37# 57
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 41# 50
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 28# 46
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 40
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 39# 73
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 39# 41
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 26
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 38# 33
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 39# 24
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 40# 38
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 42# 38
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 44# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 45# 40
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 42
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 47# 44
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 48# 44
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 53# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 54# 45
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 54# 48
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 56# 35
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 59# 49
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 60# 31
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 61# 37
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 66# 30
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 67# 45
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 75# 41
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 78# 63
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3120
   
Games Started3119
   
Innings Pitched170.2115.1
   
Wins1011
   
Losses125
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed158130
   
Earned Runs8158
   
Home Runs Allowed2813
   
Strikeouts165118
   
Walks4923
   
ERA4.304.55
   
WHIP1.221.33
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3027
   
Games Started3026
   
Innings Pitched169.9154.9
   
Wins1111
   
Losses108
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156159
   
Earned Runs7366
   
Home Runs Allowed2418
   
Strikeouts169147
   
Walks5231
   
ERA3.863.84
   
WHIP1.221.23
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
News 
 Luis Castillo (15-8) took the loss Thursday against the Brewers, allowing five runs on five hits and four walks across five innings. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 26th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber struggled in an 8-3 loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. Bieber allowed five runs (three earned) over 5 2/3 innings while striking out seven.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Sep 26th
 Luis Castillo (15-7) was saddled with the loss Friday against the Mets, allowing three runs on three hits and three walks over seven innings. He struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 21st
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber pitched well in a 5-2 win over the Phillies on Friday. Bieber allowed two runs over 7 1/3 innings while striking out seven.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, Sep 21st
 Luis Castillo (15-6) earned the win Friday against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks across five innings. He struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 14th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber struggled in a 7-5 win over the Twins on Sunday. Bieber gave up four runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings while striking out four.
Matthew Terelle
Sun, Sep 15th
 Luis Castillo (14-6) took the loss Saturday against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks across 7.2 innings. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 8th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber pitched well in a 6-2 win over the Angels on Monday. Bieber allowed just one run over seven innings while striking out eight.
Matthew Terelle
Tue, Sep 10th
 Luis Castillo (14-5) earned the win Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Sep 2nd
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber pitched well in an 8-6 win over the White Sox on Wednesday. Bieber allowed two runs over seven innings while striking out nine.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Sep 5th
Notes 
 Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Bieber is the rare pitcher who may throw too many strikes. His pinpoint control is helpful for his WHIP, and he's shown the ability to strike out close to a batter per inning, but he gave up so many hits as a rookie that his ERA ballooned to 4.55. That is due for quite a bit of positive regression, but Bieber's ERA may always trail behind his WHIP. For now, expect his ERA to settle in the mid-to-high 3s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Baseball fans could soon think of that pop singer as the other Bieber. After generating a 13.68 K/BB ratio (!) throughout his minor league career, the Cleveland righty recorded 118 strikeouts to 23 walks in 114.2 big league frames. He also, however, got pegged to a 4.55 ERA. Lefties crushed him (.311/.362/.547), and a subpar four-seam fastball didn't fool anyone. Yet he also boasted a 3.23 FIP with a superb slider that submitted a 26.2% swinging-strike rate. Corey Kluber and Corey Carrasco have emerged as aces despite mediocre heaters, so perhaps Cleveland can apply the same winning formula to Bieber. He's still reasonably priced as a mid-range breakout pick, but it wouldn't be surprising to see his ADP skyrocket this spring.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros