Who Should I Draft?

Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
Expert
Recommendation
66%
Recommended by
37 of 56 experts
34%
Recommended by
19 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 41# 48
Best Rank# 22# 24
Worst Rank# 78# 226
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 128# 149
Best Rank# 114# 136
Worst Rank# 846# 157
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts169147
Wins1111
Saves00
ERA3.863.84
WHIP1.221.23
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 38# 39
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 44# 53
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 53
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 38# 46
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 56# 226
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 22# 61
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 64
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 44
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 46# 56
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 45# 56
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 30# 84
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 42# 54
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 41# 113
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 38# 48
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 35# 49
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 34# 35
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 35# 40
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 46# 52
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 54# 66
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 103
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 40# 58
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 38# 74
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 39# 57
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 41# 86
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 63
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 33# 63
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 37# 53
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 44# 48
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 52
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 39# 56
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 25# 41
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 41# 48
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 37# 57
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 28# 46
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 40
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 39# 73
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 39# 41
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 26
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 38# 33
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 39# 24
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 40# 38
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 42# 38
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 44# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 45# 40
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 42
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 48# 44
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 53# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 54# 45
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 54# 48
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 56# 35
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 59# 49
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 60# 31
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 61# 37
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 66# 30
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 67# 45
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 78# 63
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3120
   
Games Started3119
   
Innings Pitched170.2115.1
   
Wins1011
   
Losses125
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed158130
   
Earned Runs8158
   
Home Runs Allowed2813
   
Strikeouts165118
   
Walks4923
   
ERA4.304.55
   
WHIP1.221.33
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3027
   
Games Started3026
   
Innings Pitched169.9154.9
   
Wins1111
   
Losses108
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156159
   
Earned Runs7366
   
Home Runs Allowed2418
   
Strikeouts169147
   
Walks5231
   
ERA3.863.84
   
WHIP1.221.23
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Shane Bieber
News 
 Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings on Saturday against the Brewers. He struck out six and took the loss.
Dan Harris
Mon, Jun 24th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber pitched well in a 4-2 loss to the Rangers on Thursday. Bieber allowed just two runs over six innings while striking out eight.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Jun 20th
 Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in the Reds' 3-2 win over the Astros on Monday. He walked six and struck out seven while improving to 7-1.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber was exceptional in a 4-2 win over the Tigers on Saturday. Bieber allowed two runs in 7 2/3 innings while racking up 12 strikeouts. He allowed just four hits and walked one in the win.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, Jun 15th
 Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber had a tough time against the Yankees in a 7-6 loss on Sunday. Bieber allowed five runs in 1 2/3 innings, striking out four and walking two.
Matthew Terelle
Sun, Jun 9th
 Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber was excellent in a 5-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday. Bieber allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out seven and walking one.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Jun 5th
 Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber picked up an ugly win in a 14-9 victory over the Red Sox on Wednesday. Bieber allowed six runs in five innings while striking out six.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, May 30th
Notes 
 Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Bieber is the rare pitcher who may throw too many strikes. His pinpoint control is helpful for his WHIP, and he's shown the ability to strike out close to a batter per inning, but he gave up so many hits as a rookie that his ERA ballooned to 4.55. That is due for quite a bit of positive regression, but Bieber's ERA may always trail behind his WHIP. For now, expect his ERA to settle in the mid-to-high 3s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Baseball fans could soon think of that pop singer as the other Bieber. After generating a 13.68 K/BB ratio (!) throughout his minor league career, the Cleveland righty recorded 118 strikeouts to 23 walks in 114.2 big league frames. He also, however, got pegged to a 4.55 ERA. Lefties crushed him (.311/.362/.547), and a subpar four-seam fastball didn't fool anyone. Yet he also boasted a 3.23 FIP with a superb slider that submitted a 26.2% swinging-strike rate. Corey Kluber and Corey Carrasco have emerged as aces despite mediocre heaters, so perhaps Cleveland can apply the same winning formula to Bieber. He's still reasonably priced as a mid-range breakout pick, but it wouldn't be surprising to see his ADP skyrocket this spring.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros