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Who Should I Draft?

Luis Robert or Nolan Arenado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Robert
CF - CWS
Luis Robert
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
69%
Recommended by
35 of 51 experts
31%
Recommended by
16 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 26# 30
Best Rank# 11# 9
Worst Rank# 74# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 39# 33
Best Rank# 34# 30
Worst Rank# 48# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs8585
Home Runs2831
RBI8397
Stolen Bases222
Batting Average.253.274
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 32
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 25# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 21# 29
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 16# 34
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 19# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 26# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 28# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 23# 41
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 26# 29
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 26# 30
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 18# 60
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 25# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 27# 33
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 25# 26
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 25# 37
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 20# 31
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 30# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 26# 36
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 28# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 11# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 23# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 20# 29
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 27# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 24# 45
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 27# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 20# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 28# 29
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 28# 40
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 34# 37
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 27# 31
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 31# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 27# 33
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 27# 29
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 31# 42
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 15
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 23# 18
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 26# 14
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 27# 19
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 29# 19
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 28
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 29# 17
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 30# 20
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 30# 29
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 30# 26
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 31# 24
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 32# 20
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 34# 31
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 34# 32
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 40# 38
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 74# 9
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Luis Robert
CF - CWS
Luis Robert
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats202182
   
Runs3323
   
Hits4746
   
Singles2829
   
Doubles89
   
Triples00
   
Home Runs118
   
RBI3126
   
Stolen Bases90
   
Caught Stealing20
   
Walks2015
   
Strikeouts7320
   
Batting Average.233.253
   
On Base Pct.302.304
   
Slugging Pct.436.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.738.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Luis Robert
CF - CWS
Luis Robert
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats554571
   
Runs8585
   
Hits140155
   
Singles8293
   
Doubles2629
   
Triples32
   
Home Runs2831
   
RBI8397
   
Stolen Bases222
   
Caught Stealing71
   
Walks4361
   
Strikeouts17695
   
Batting Average.253.274
   
On Base Pct.307.345
   
Slugging Pct.465.494
   
On-base Plus Slugging.772.839
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Luis Robert
CF - CWS
Luis Robert
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Luis Robert went 2-for-4 on Tuesday, homering twice and totalling three total RBIs on the day. He also drew a walk.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Wed, Sep 29th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a solo homer and two RBI in a 6-2 win over the Brewers on Tuesday as St. Louis clinched a playoff berth in the National League.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 28th
 Luis Robert went 2-for-3 on the day, hitting a solo home run and a single, totalling two RBIs in the game. He also struck out once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Fri, Sep 24th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in a 5-2 win over the Brewers on Monday night.
Lucas Spence
Mon, Sep 20th
 Luis Robert was 2-for-5 in Tuesday's loss, driving in two runs with a single while also hitting a double later in the game.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Sep 21st
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
 Luis Robert went 4-for-5 on Saturday with three doubles as well as a single. He'd score once and tally three RBIs on the day.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 12th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
 Luis Robert was 2-for-6 with two singles in Chicago's win over Oakland on Tuesday. He also scored a run.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Wed, Sep 8th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
Notes 
 Robert's production was pretty much what it was cracked up to be in terms of his power and speed, but his .233 batting average was a little hard to stomach. He struck out way too much (32.2% of the time, bottom 6% of the league), and just didn't make hard enough contact consistently to keep his average above water. But Robert will be just 24 years old this season, so there's plenty of room for growth in that area. That's particularly true given that Robert was a career .312 hitter in the minors and .314 in Cuba. Even if he was a batting average drain, which you shouldn't expect, given that he was on a roughly 30-25 full-season pace last year, fantasy managers should be able to stomach it. Draft him as a borderline first outfielder in fantasy leagues and reap the rewards.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Luis Robert signed a long-term extension with the White Sox and has the upside to leap to superstardom in 2021. He slashed .233/.302/.406 with 10 home runs and nine stolen bases across 225 plate appearances. If it weren't for a rough September, Robert was well on his way to finishing as a top-20 player. His tools are off the chart and he will bat in the middle of a loaded White Sox lineup. Everything is lined up for Robert to bust out if he can put it all together in 2021.
Brad Camara - FantasyPros
The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 Robert came out of the gate like a rocket before hitting just .136/.237/.173 in September. The concern entering 2021 is that pitchers have figured out the book on Robert. While he was doing damage in July and August, Robert was swinging at everything thrown his way. Eventually, pitchers stopped giving him chances. The issue is Robert kept swinging. Baseball is a game of adjustments and it's now on him to adjust back. The talent and skills are here. Even it comes with a weak batting average, Robert has enough power/speed upside to remain fantasy relevant amid slumps. Similar to Adalbero Mondesi, consider Robert a very volatile player in drafts.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros