Who Should I Draft?

Luis Severino or Masahiro Tanaka (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Expert
Recommendation
82%
Recommended by
47 of 57 experts
18%
Recommended by
10 of 57 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 26# 35
Best Rank# 7# 20
Worst Rank# 65# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 68# 120
Best Rank# 55# 97
Worst Rank# 121# 129
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts178166
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.323.80
WHIP1.131.17
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 35# 37
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 31
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 19# 43
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 16# 32
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 33# 37
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 34# 51
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 22# 48
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 27# 42
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 12# 29
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 39
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 19# 40
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 13# 54
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 24# 41
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 31# 44
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 15# 41
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 25# 43
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 20# 27
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 13# 35
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 33# 37
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 31# 35
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 18# 43
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 24# 53
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 60
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 28# 36
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 34# 39
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 10# 48
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 18# 31
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 8# 39
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 24# 36
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 34# 40
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 11# 27
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 12# 29
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 19# 39
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 42
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 23# 44
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 40# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 37# 50
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 27# 51
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 11# 42
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 28# 45
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 26# 39
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 7# 38
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 18# 35
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 29# 30
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 20# 31
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 13# 37
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 24# 38
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 21# 20
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 33# 30
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 39# 32
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 41# 34
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 43# 35
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 43# 38
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 45# 27
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 50# 41
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 56# 35
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 65# 23
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3227
   
Games Started3227
   
Innings Pitched191.2156.0
   
Wins1912
   
Losses86
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed173141
   
Earned Runs7265
   
Home Runs Allowed1925
   
Strikeouts220159
   
Walks4635
   
ERA3.393.75
   
WHIP1.141.13
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2728
   
Games Started2628
   
Innings Pitched155.9165.0
   
Wins1312
   
Losses68
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed136156
   
Earned Runs5870
   
Home Runs Allowed1924
   
Strikeouts178166
   
Walks4038
   
ERA3.323.80
   
WHIP1.131.17
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
News 
 Luis Severino (shoulder) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session.
Brad Camara
Thu, Aug 15th
Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs on four hits with no walks and two strikeouts across 6 1/3 innings while picking up the win against the Indians on Friday.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 17th
 Yankees GM Brian Cashman says Luis Severino (lat) will need "six or more" weeks to be ready.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jul 12th
Masahiro Tanaka picked up the win after allowing three hits and striking out four over eight scoreless innings Sunday against the Blue Jays.
John Aubin
Mon, Aug 12th
 Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Luis Severino (shoulder) is 90% healed from his injury but won’t throw off a mound until he’s 100%.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 29th
Masahiro Tanaka gave up five runs on 10 hits and two walks while striking out four over 5 1/3 innings Monday against the Orioles. He didn't factor into the decision.
John Aubin
Tue, Aug 6th
 Luis Severino (shoulder) again threw from a distance of 60 feet on Tuesday according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
John Aubin
Tue, Jun 11th
Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs on five hits and three walks over four innings during Wednesday's 7-5 win against the Diamondbacks. He struck out four and didn't qualify for the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, Aug 1st
 Luis Severino (lat) was throwing off flat ground again Friday, Coley Harvey of ESPN.com reports.
John Aubin
Fri, May 31st
Masahiro Tanaka lasted just 3 1/3 innings in Thursday's loss to the Red Sox, giving up 12 runs on 12 hits and three walks while striking out four.
John Aubin
Fri, Jul 26th
Notes 
 A Cy Young Award contender though June, Severino imploded with a 5.20 ERA over the final three months. That inconsistency is perilous for a staff headliner, but he still finished 2018 with a 3.39 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 220 strikeouts. Despite his start-by-start inconsistency, he has delivered on a macro level in consecutive seasons. However, he will miss at least all of April with a shoulder injury, Previously a viable top-10 candidate, he's now too risky to draft as a top-25 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Tanaka was basically the same pitcher last year as he was in 2017, but he shaved a run off of his ERA thanks to slight improvements in BABIP allowed, home runs allowed, and left-on-base percentage. Still, home runs remain an issue for Tanaka, which explains why his ERA generally lags behind his WHIP. He's also never made it to 200 innings, so he's not exactly a workhorse. At this point we should just accept Tanaka for what he is: a solid third or fourth fantasy starter.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 At first glance, Severino's 2018 numbers look just about as good as his excellent 2017 season, but the real story is that he was completely dominant in the first half and completely awful in the second half. That kind of inconsistency is a red flag, as is the rotator cuff inflammation that could cause him to miss the first month of the season or more. The sky is the limit for Severino in terms of long-term upside, but he's shaping up as a boom-or-bust pick for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Tanaka's xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.50) dropped 0.02 points apiece, but his ERA plunged nearly a full run from 4.74 to 3.75. That works just fine when paired with a 1.13 WHIP and 9.17 K/9. His elite skills support last season's approved ERA if he can avoid home-run catastrophe in Yankee Stadium. Just prepare to assume some added volatility when his splitter isn't clicking, and he's more likely to work 160 innings than 190. Those risks are all factored into his reasonable SP3 price.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Over the past two seasons, only Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, deGrom and Kluber have a better ERA and more strikeouts than Severino, who is quickly becoming a true durable ace. He doesn't belong in that first tier, but may already lead the next group.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros