Who Should I Draft?

Madison Bumgarner or Luis Castillo (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
34 of 56 experts
39%
Recommended by
22 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 38# 41
Best Rank# 18# 22
Worst Rank# 67# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 96# 128
Best Rank# 67# 114
Worst Rank# 108# 846
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts164169
Wins1011
Saves00
ERA3.703.86
WHIP1.221.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 34# 38
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 44
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 39
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 33# 38
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 35# 56
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 54# 56
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 25# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 48# 66
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 42# 46
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 35# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 18# 46
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 32# 42
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 43# 60
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 21# 41
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 37# 38
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 28# 35
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 49# 53
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 34# 35
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 22# 59
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 48# 54
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 21# 35
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 34# 40
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 33# 38
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 36# 39
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 43# 61
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 37# 67
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 26# 39
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 31# 44
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 41# 42
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 52# 78
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 40# 41
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 36# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 43# 54
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 34# 39
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 29# 25
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 36# 22
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 37# 34
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 39# 37
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 39# 30
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 42# 40
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 43# 33
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 43# 39
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 44# 33
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 45# 28
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 46# 45
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 47# 46
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 47# 41
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 47# 38
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 48# 28
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 52# 30
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 54# 39
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 56# 48
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 56# 45
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 58# 54
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 63# 42
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 67# 44
   
  Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2131
   
Games Started2131
   
Innings Pitched130.1170.2
   
Wins610
   
Losses712
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed118158
   
Earned Runs4781
   
Home Runs Allowed1428
   
Strikeouts109165
   
Walks4349
   
ERA3.264.30
   
WHIP1.241.22
   
  Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2930
   
Games Started2930
   
Innings Pitched181.9169.9
   
Wins1011
   
Losses1110
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed170156
   
Earned Runs7573
   
Home Runs Allowed2424
   
Strikeouts164169
   
Walks5152
   
ERA3.703.86
   
WHIP1.221.22
   
  Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Madison Bumgarner got hit hard by the Dodgers on Thursday, giving up six runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings en route to his seventh loss.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jun 21st
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings on Saturday against the Brewers. He struck out six and took the loss.
Dan Harris
Mon, Jun 24th
 Madison Bumgarner received a no-decision on Saturday versus Milwaukee, surrendering five runs (three earned) on five hits in six innings of work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 16th
Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in the Reds' 3-2 win over the Astros on Monday. He walked six and struck out seven while improving to 7-1.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
 Madison Bumgarner fell to 3-6 on Sunday versus the Dodgers, spinning seven innings of one-run ball while striking out five.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
 Madison Bumgarner received a no-decision on Tuesday versus the Mets, throwing six innings of three-run ball while striking out five.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 4th
Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
 Madison Bumgarner fell to 3-5 on Wednesday in Miami, giving up two runs on six hits over six innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, May 30th
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
Notes 
 Bumgarner was one of the best fantasy starters out there until a couple of years ago, but he hasn't been quite the same since his 2017 dirt bike accident. He has remained a help in ERA thanks to his ability to limit base hits, but his strikeout rate has plummeted and last year his walk rate rose as well. Bumgarner's peripherals suggest he is playing with fire, even in a very pitcher-friendly environment in San Francisco. Still just 29 years old, a big bounce back season cannot be completely discounted, but there is no question that Bumgarner is a risk-reward choice on draft day.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 A dirt-bike accident in 2017 and broken hand suffered last spring limited Bumgarner to 240.2 combined innings in the past two seasons. He had previously exceeded 200 in each of the last six seasons. While he could regain his workhorse label in 2019, the 29-year-old must combat declines in velocity, swinging strikes (9.2%), and strikeouts (19.8%). Don't pay for past success, but take him as a stable, high-floor SP3 if everyone else is fading the owner of a career 3.03 ERA.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
  One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros