Who Should I Draft?

Manny Machado or Javier Baez (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Expert
Recommendation
71%
Recommended by
42 of 59 experts
29%
Recommended by
17 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 13# 18
Best Rank# 7# 6
Worst Rank# 160# 33
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 17# 18
Best Rank# 13# 16
Worst Rank# 21# 23
   
Projections 
   
Runs8887
Home Runs3230
RBI9596
Stolen Bases1017
Batting Average.284.276
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-DTD
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 14# 15
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 13# 14
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 15# 18
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 20
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 15# 19
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 10# 19
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 12# 18
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 11# 20
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 11# 24
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 15# 17
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 13# 21
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 13# 22
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 11# 19
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 13# 29
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 14# 18
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 11# 17
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 14# 16
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 14# 32
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 23
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 10# 33
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 13# 33
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 12# 21
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 7# 18
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 14# 21
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 14# 15
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 14# 22
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 21
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 14# 15
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 10# 22
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 14# 22
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 10# 14
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 10# 20
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 7# 11
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 23
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 8# 22
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 13# 18
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 15# 19
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 14# 29
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 16# 18
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 7# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 11# 15
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 9# 6
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 9# 6
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 10# 9
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 11# 9
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 14# 13
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 16# 13
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 15
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 11
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 19# 16
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 20# 18
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 21# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 22# 15
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 22# 18
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 23# 13
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 25# 10
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 31# 16
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 160# 7
   
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats632606
   
Runs84101
   
Hits188176
   
Singles11393
   
Doubles3540
   
Triples39
   
Home Runs3734
   
RBI107111
   
Stolen Bases1421
   
Caught Stealing29
   
Walks7029
   
Strikeouts104167
   
Batting Average.298.290
   
On Base Pct.367.326
   
Slugging Pct.538.555
   
On-base Plus Slugging.905.881
   
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats595582
   
Runs8887
   
Hits169161
   
Singles10193
   
Doubles3233
   
Triples35
   
Home Runs3230
   
RBI9596
   
Stolen Bases1017
   
Caught Stealing36
   
Walks6033
   
Strikeouts104159
   
Batting Average.284.276
   
On Base Pct.349.315
   
Slugging Pct.510.507
   
On-base Plus Slugging.859.822
   
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
News 
 Manny Machado hit his 30th homer of the year in the Padres' 11-10 loss to the Rockies on Saturday.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Sep 15th
Cubs manager Joe Maddon says Javier Baez (thumb) remains available off the bench as a pinch-runner.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 20th
 Manny Machado went 0-for-5 with a strikeout as the Padres beat the Cubs 9-8 on Tuesday night.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Sep 11th
An MRI revealed a hairline fracture on Javier Baez’s thumb Saturday.
Brad Camara
Sat, Sep 7th
 Manny Machado went 1-for-3 with a walk in the Padres' 4-1 loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 5th
Javier Baez is not in the lineup for Saturday’s game against the Brewers.
Brad Camara
Sat, Sep 7th
 Manny Machado went 2-for-4 with a homer, a double, and two runs scored in the Padres' 8-3 loss to the Giants on Friday night.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Aug 31st
Javier Baez (thumb) is not in Friday's lineup against the Brewers.
Brad Camara
Fri, Sep 6th
 Manny Machado went 1-for-3 with a double and a stolen base in the Padres' 9-0 loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 28th
Javier Baez was scratched from Thursday’s lineup against the Brewers due to soreness in his left thumb.
Brad Camara
Thu, Sep 5th
Notes 
 Regardless of what you think about Machado, he has been a reliable force of nature the last few years and likely hasn't even come into his prime yet. The landing spot in San Diego isn't quite what you would think, as it has actually been a top half of the league ballpark for right-handed hitters since they moved their fences in. So don't hesitate to snag him at the end of the first round, as he seems destined for another 35+ homer, 90+ RBI, 90+ run season
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Baez was excellent last year, hitting 34 homers with 21 steals, 101 runs and a league-leading 111 RBIs. While he is surely a star, every projection model sees those numbers regressing in 2019, especially his batting average which was propped up by a .347 BABIP
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Machado has four straight seasons with at least 33 home runs, and has finished as a top-20 hitter in standard 5x5 leagues in three of the last four years (he finished a still solid 42nd in 2017). The move to San Diego isn't ideal for his fantasy value, but Petco Park isn't nearly as much of a problem for hitters as it once was, particularly when it comes to right-handed power hitters like Machado. Padres manager Andy Green also sends runners much more frequently than the Orioles or Dodgers do, which could help Machado's stolen base totals.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Baez fits into a similar category of player as Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story: shortstops coming off of 30-20 seasons who have sky-high upside but also a bit of risk. The biggest risk for Baez is that his elevated strikeout rate leads to some regression in last season's .290 batting average. He also may not run quite as much after stealing just three bases in the second half last year. Still, Baez should be able to at least produce a .270-30-15 kind of season, which would be enough to keep him among the elite fantasy options at shortstop.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Along with setting personal highs in each element of his .297/.367/.538 slash line, Machado bashed 37 homers and stole 14 bases, a significant development since he stole none in 2016. He has hit 33 homers in at least 690 plate appearances in each of the last four seasons, so he'd probably be considered a first-round lock if not for remaining unsigned. Now that he established 2017's funk as the clear outlier, Machado is a trustworthy stud eligible for shortstop and third (16 games) in most formats. Signing the Padres doesn't kill his worth, but he's someone to target near the Round ½ turn rather than inside the top 10.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Despite recording the second-worst swinging strike (18.2%) and outside-swing (45.5%) rates, Baez managed to hit .290. Among 17 hitters with a contact rate of 70.0% or lower in at least 300 plate appearances, Aaron Judge was the only one besides Baez to bat above .266. That's a better baseline for 2019. Given his middling 4.5 walk %, he might not reach base enough to steal another 21 bases. Don't pay full freight for an encore.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros