Who Should I Draft?

Marcell Ozuna or Matt Carpenter (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Marcell Ozuna
LF - STL
Marcell Ozuna
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
34 of 56 experts
39%
Recommended by
22 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 46# 50
Best Rank# 24# 12
Worst Rank# 106# 100
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 75# 65
Best Rank# 63# 58
Worst Rank# 95# 72
   
Projections 
   
Runs7797
Home Runs2728
RBI9576
Stolen Bases23
Batting Average.286.256
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 69
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 40# 47
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 41# 50
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 41# 46
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 34# 65
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 40# 78
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 40# 83
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 45# 68
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 42# 50
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 37# 65
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 52# 70
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 34# 71
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 24# 100
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 32# 59
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 45# 48
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 41# 76
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 32# 78
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 47
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 40# 53
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 27# 58
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 25# 66
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 38# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 47# 50
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 53# 56
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 45# 49
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 32# 51
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 39# 72
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 57# 62
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 67# 81
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 28# 57
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 45# 61
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 40# 55
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 53# 64
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 43# 70
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 37# 36
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 36
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 43# 36
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 43# 38
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 45# 35
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 46# 33
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 50# 40
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 50# 37
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 52# 37
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 53# 39
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 54# 47
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 54# 51
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 58# 54
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 60# 39
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 61# 48
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 61# 26
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 62# 29
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 67# 12
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 70# 64
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 72# 51
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 86# 37
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 106# 24
   
  Marcell Ozuna
LF - STL
Marcell Ozuna
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats582564
   
Runs69111
   
Hits163145
   
Singles12267
   
Doubles1642
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs2336
   
RBI8881
   
Stolen Bases34
   
Caught Stealing01
   
Walks38102
   
Strikeouts110158
   
Batting Average.280.257
   
On Base Pct.325.374
   
Slugging Pct.433.523
   
On-base Plus Slugging.758.897
   
  Marcell Ozuna
LF - STL
Marcell Ozuna
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats569529
   
Runs7797
   
Hits162135
   
Singles10871
   
Doubles2435
   
Triples32
   
Home Runs2728
   
RBI9576
   
Stolen Bases23
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks4695
   
Strikeouts118140
   
Batting Average.286.256
   
On Base Pct.339.369
   
Slugging Pct.479.486
   
On-base Plus Slugging.818.855
   
  Marcell Ozuna
LF - STL
Marcell Ozuna
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
News 
 Marcell Ozuna went 1-for-4 with a single and an RBI in the Cardinals' 8-7 loss to the Mets on Saturday.
Elliott Baas
Sun, Jun 16th
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with an RBI on Thursday against the Mets.
Dan Harris
Fri, Jun 14th
 Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-5 with a solo home run and two runs scored in the Cardinals' 7-1 win over the Marlins Tuesday.
Elliott Baas
Tue, Jun 11th
Carpenter is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 7th
 Marcell Ozuna went 1-for-4 with a three-run homer in the Cardinals' 9-4 loss to the Cubs on Saturday.
Elliott Baas
Sun, Jun 9th
Carpenter was pulled in the top of the eighth inning of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Reds; he was replaced at third base by Jedd Gyorko.
James Bisson
Thu, Jun 6th
 Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles in the Cardinals' 3-1 win over the Reds on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 6th
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit, solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 30th
 Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 30th
Matt Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-2 loss to the Braves on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, May 25th
Notes 
 Ozuna's massive 2017 season seemed destined to go down as an outlier, and that's exactly what happened as he experienced a major drop-off in every offensive category last season. A shoulder injury reportedly impacted his performance last year, but the fact remains that Ozuna now has three full seasons where he has hit exactly 23 home runs with a batting average between .265 and .280 and 75-90 RBIs. That's the player we should expect in 2019, not the one that went .312-37-124 in 2017.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 All reasonable onlookers expected regression from Ozuna's .312, 37-homer outburst in 2017, but they still wanted better than .280 and 23 long balls. Let's see if he can find some middle ground this season. Playing through a nagging shoulder injury, which he addressed with an offseason surgery, he slashed his strikeouts and maintained similar levels of exit velocity and hard hits. He once again hit too many ground balls (47.1%), but he couldn't overcome it this time. The 28-year-old doesn't even need a major bounce-back to deliver value, as he could post a monster RBI tally batting behind Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt in St. Louis.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Carpenter blew away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Ozuna may have taken a huge step back last year, but even so, he put up 23 homers, 88 RBIs and a .280 batting average while playing with a significant shoulder injury. We don't know yet whether or not he will be ready to go on opening day, but assuming health, we might be closer to the 37 HR, 124 RBIs, and .312 BA we got from Ozuna in 2017.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros