Who Should I Draft?

Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Castillo (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
34 of 56 experts
39%
Recommended by
22 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 35# 41
Best Rank# 20# 22
Worst Rank# 60# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 120# 128
Best Rank# 97# 114
Worst Rank# 129# 846
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts166169
Wins1211
Saves00
ERA3.803.86
WHIP1.171.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 37# 38
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 44
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 39
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 32# 56
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 32# 56
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 51# 66
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 29# 46
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 39# 45
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 40# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 20# 46
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 42
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 23# 60
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 41# 48
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 27# 45
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 35# 38
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 35# 53
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 53# 54
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 34# 46
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 39# 42
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 48# 59
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 41# 54
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 31# 35
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 39# 40
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 36# 38
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 27# 41
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 35# 44
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 29# 61
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 44# 67
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 30# 42
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 51# 78
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 39# 41
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 35# 54
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 37# 39
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 39
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 30# 28
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 31# 28
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 36# 33
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 37# 35
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 37# 22
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 38# 34
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 38# 37
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 39# 33
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 40# 39
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 39
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 42# 37
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 30
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 42# 39
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 43# 41
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 43# 38
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 43# 34
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 44# 38
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 45# 25
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 48# 40
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 50# 44
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 54# 30
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 60# 35
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2731
   
Games Started2731
   
Innings Pitched156.0170.2
   
Wins1210
   
Losses612
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed141158
   
Earned Runs6581
   
Home Runs Allowed2528
   
Strikeouts159165
   
Walks3549
   
ERA3.754.30
   
WHIP1.131.22
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2830
   
Games Started2830
   
Innings Pitched165.0169.9
   
Wins1211
   
Losses810
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156156
   
Earned Runs7073
   
Home Runs Allowed2424
   
Strikeouts166169
   
Walks3852
   
ERA3.803.86
   
WHIP1.171.22
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Masahiro Tanaka gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits while striking out seven and not walking a batter over 6 2/3 innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday.
John Aubin
Tue, Jun 11th
Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
 Monday’s game between the Mets and Yankees has been postponed due to rain.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jun 10th
Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
 Tanaka will return from the paternity list to start Monday against the Mets.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Jun 8th
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
 The Yankees placed Masahiro Tanaka on the paternity leave list.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 8th
Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over 5.1 innings in the Reds' 4-2 win over the Cubs on Thursday. He walked one and struck out six while improving to 5-1.
Elliott Baas
Fri, May 17th
 Tanaka may miss his next scheduled start Sunday in Cleveland due to the birth of his child.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 7th
Luis Castillo fired six scoreless innings and improved to 4-1 in the Reds' 7-0 win over the Giants on Friday. He allowed two hits, five walks, and struck out 11.
Elliott Baas
Sat, May 11th
Notes 
 Tanaka was basically the same pitcher last year as he was in 2017, but he shaved a run off of his ERA thanks to slight improvements in BABIP allowed, home runs allowed, and left-on-base percentage. Still, home runs remain an issue for Tanaka, which explains why his ERA generally lags behind his WHIP. He's also never made it to 200 innings, so he's not exactly a workhorse. At this point we should just accept Tanaka for what he is: a solid third or fourth fantasy starter.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Tanaka's xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.50) dropped 0.02 points apiece, but his ERA plunged nearly a full run from 4.74 to 3.75. That works just fine when paired with a 1.13 WHIP and 9.17 K/9. His elite skills support last season's approved ERA if he can avoid home-run catastrophe in Yankee Stadium. Just prepare to assume some added volatility when his splitter isn't clicking, and he's more likely to work 160 innings than 190. Those risks are all factored into his reasonable SP3 price.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
  One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros