Who Should I Draft?

Masahiro Tanaka or Madison Bumgarner (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
Expert
Recommendation
52%
Recommended by
29 of 56 experts
48%
Recommended by
27 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 35# 38
Best Rank# 20# 18
Worst Rank# 60# 67
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 120# 96
Best Rank# 97# 67
Worst Rank# 129# 108
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts166164
Wins1210
Saves00
ERA3.803.70
WHIP1.171.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 31# 39
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 32
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 32# 35
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 32# 54
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 29# 42
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 39# 46
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 44# 47
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 23# 43
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 41# 56
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 27# 56
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 35# 37
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 35# 49
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 53# 58
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 36# 43
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 34# 47
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 39# 63
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 41# 48
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 27# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 35# 67
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 29# 43
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 39# 44
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 30# 41
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 51# 52
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 42# 54
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 39# 40
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 35# 43
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 30# 48
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 31# 45
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 43
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 20# 18
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 31# 21
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 36# 33
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 37# 28
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 37# 34
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 37# 36
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 37# 34
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 38# 25
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 38# 36
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 39# 34
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 40# 36
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 40# 35
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 26
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 32
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 42# 39
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 39
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 43# 21
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 43# 33
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 43# 37
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 44# 37
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 45# 29
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 48# 42
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 48# 22
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 50# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 51# 48
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 54# 52
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 60# 34
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2721
   
Games Started2721
   
Innings Pitched156.0130.1
   
Wins126
   
Losses67
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed141118
   
Earned Runs6547
   
Home Runs Allowed2514
   
Strikeouts159109
   
Walks3543
   
ERA3.753.26
   
WHIP1.131.24
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2829
   
Games Started2829
   
Innings Pitched165.0181.9
   
Wins1210
   
Losses811
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156170
   
Earned Runs7075
   
Home Runs Allowed2424
   
Strikeouts166164
   
Walks3851
   
ERA3.803.70
   
WHIP1.171.22
   
  Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Madison Bumgarner
SP - SF
Madison Bumgarner
News 
 Masahiro Tanaka didn't factor into the decision in Saturday's 7-5 win over the Astros, giving up two runs on eight hits and a walk over six innings while striking out one.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 23rd
Madison Bumgarner got hit hard by the Dodgers on Thursday, giving up six runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings en route to his seventh loss.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jun 21st
 Masahiro Tanaka picked up the win Monday in a 3-0 victory over the Rays, giving up two hits and a walk over nine shutout innings while striking out a season-high 10.
John Aubin
Tue, Jun 18th
Madison Bumgarner received a no-decision on Saturday versus Milwaukee, surrendering five runs (three earned) on five hits in six innings of work.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 16th
 Masahiro Tanaka gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits while striking out seven and not walking a batter over 6 2/3 innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday.
John Aubin
Tue, Jun 11th
Madison Bumgarner fell to 3-6 on Sunday versus the Dodgers, spinning seven innings of one-run ball while striking out five.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
 Monday’s game between the Mets and Yankees has been postponed due to rain.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jun 10th
Madison Bumgarner received a no-decision on Tuesday versus the Mets, throwing six innings of three-run ball while striking out five.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 4th
 Tanaka will return from the paternity list to start Monday against the Mets.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Jun 8th
Madison Bumgarner fell to 3-5 on Wednesday in Miami, giving up two runs on six hits over six innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, May 30th
Notes 
 Tanaka was basically the same pitcher last year as he was in 2017, but he shaved a run off of his ERA thanks to slight improvements in BABIP allowed, home runs allowed, and left-on-base percentage. Still, home runs remain an issue for Tanaka, which explains why his ERA generally lags behind his WHIP. He's also never made it to 200 innings, so he's not exactly a workhorse. At this point we should just accept Tanaka for what he is: a solid third or fourth fantasy starter.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Bumgarner was one of the best fantasy starters out there until a couple of years ago, but he hasn't been quite the same since his 2017 dirt bike accident. He has remained a help in ERA thanks to his ability to limit base hits, but his strikeout rate has plummeted and last year his walk rate rose as well. Bumgarner's peripherals suggest he is playing with fire, even in a very pitcher-friendly environment in San Francisco. Still just 29 years old, a big bounce back season cannot be completely discounted, but there is no question that Bumgarner is a risk-reward choice on draft day.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Tanaka's xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.50) dropped 0.02 points apiece, but his ERA plunged nearly a full run from 4.74 to 3.75. That works just fine when paired with a 1.13 WHIP and 9.17 K/9. His elite skills support last season's approved ERA if he can avoid home-run catastrophe in Yankee Stadium. Just prepare to assume some added volatility when his splitter isn't clicking, and he's more likely to work 160 innings than 190. Those risks are all factored into his reasonable SP3 price.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
A dirt-bike accident in 2017 and broken hand suffered last spring limited Bumgarner to 240.2 combined innings in the past two seasons. He had previously exceeded 200 in each of the last six seasons. While he could regain his workhorse label in 2019, the 29-year-old must combat declines in velocity, swinging strikes (9.2%), and strikeouts (19.8%). Don't pay for past success, but take him as a stable, high-floor SP3 if everyone else is fading the owner of a career 3.03 ERA.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros