Who Should I Draft?

Matt Carpenter or Jesus Aguilar (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jesus Aguilar
1B - TB
Jesus Aguilar
Expert
Recommendation
66%
Recommended by
39 of 59 experts
34%
Recommended by
20 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 49# 55
Best Rank# 12# 28
Worst Rank# 100# 192
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 65# 78
Best Rank# 58# 75
Worst Rank# 72# 85
   
Projections 
   
Runs9777
Home Runs2831
RBI7695
Stolen Bases30
Batting Average.256.260
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 51# 68
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 35# 44
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 54
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 39# 66
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 46# 61
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 68# 132
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 50# 71
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 36# 60
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 28
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 37# 60
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 26# 52
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 71# 76
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 59# 65
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 48# 56
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 40# 60
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 76# 89
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 37# 58
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 78# 88
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 47# 53
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 44
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 53# 73
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 47# 53
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 36# 66
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 66# 192
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 37# 63
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 29# 60
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 50# 75
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 49# 59
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 51# 59
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 51# 66
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 54# 65
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 64# 65
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 61# 75
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 42# 63
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 55# 57
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 64# 79
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 39# 67
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 24# 52
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 56
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 38# 36
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 45# 38
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 47# 35
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 48# 41
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 50# 42
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 56# 54
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 57# 55
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 58# 39
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 58# 43
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 62# 44
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 65# 35
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 65# 52
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 70# 57
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 70# 61
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 72# 65
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 78# 51
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 81# 68
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 83# 45
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 100# 66
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 29
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jesus Aguilar
1B - TB
Jesus Aguilar
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats564492
   
Runs11180
   
Hits145135
   
Singles6775
   
Doubles4225
   
Triples00
   
Home Runs3635
   
RBI81108
   
Stolen Bases40
   
Caught Stealing10
   
Walks10258
   
Strikeouts158143
   
Batting Average.257.274
   
On Base Pct.374.352
   
Slugging Pct.523.539
   
On-base Plus Slugging.897.890
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jesus Aguilar
1B - TB
Jesus Aguilar
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats529520
   
Runs9777
   
Hits135135
   
Singles7178
   
Doubles3525
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs2831
   
RBI7695
   
Stolen Bases30
   
Caught Stealing20
   
Walks9555
   
Strikeouts140147
   
Batting Average.256.260
   
On Base Pct.369.330
   
Slugging Pct.486.492
   
On-base Plus Slugging.855.822
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jesus Aguilar
1B - TB
Jesus Aguilar
News 
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-2 with a go-ahead solo home run in Thursday's win over the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 20th
Jesus Aguilar hit a two-run homer in his only at-bat in Tuesday's loss to the Dodgers.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 18th
 Matt Carpenter did not start Tuesday's game against the Nationals, and went 0-for-1 as a pinch hitter.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 18th
Jesus Aguilar went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and another RBI in Friday's victory over the Angels.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 14th
 Matt Carpenter went 2-for-3 with two walks, two singles, an RBI, and a run scored in Thursday's win over the Giants.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 5th
Jesus Aguilar went 1-for-3 with a three-run home run Friday against the Indians.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 31st
 Matt Carpenter went 3-for-4 with a home run, three runs scored, two RBI, and a walk in Sunday's win over the Rockies.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 26th
Jesus Aguilar went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, two total RBI and two runs scored in Sunday's win over the Marlins.
John Aubin
Sun, Aug 4th
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with a walk as the Cardinals defeated the Royals 2-0.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Aug 13th
Jesus Aguilar went 2-for-3 and scored two runs against the Red Sox in his first game as a Ray on Thursday.
John Aubin
Fri, Aug 2nd
Notes 
 Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
After hitting .265 with 16 HRs in 279 at-bats in 2017, Aguilar got the chance to be a full-time player in 2018, and took advantage to the sweet tune of a .274/80/35/108 line that made him a top-three first baseman in standard 5x5 roto leagues. Aguilar is a zero on the base paths and he strikes out too much to be of much help in batting average, either, but the power is very real and his run production numbers should continue to be excellent in a loaded lineup and great home park. Call Aguilar a HR/RBI specialist if you must, but at least recognize that he is one of the better HR/RBI specialists in the game.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Carpenter blew¬†away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Aguilar is currently being drafted ahead of players like Scooter Gennett, Eddie Rosario, Justin Upton, Josh Donaldson, and A.J. Pollock. He may have put together a great first half, but once pitchers built a book on him, his last 60 games saw him hit just .245 with 27 homers. His consensus projections aren't much higher, at 30 homers and a .258 batting average. You can find production like that off the waiver wire at first base, and while there is a chance he returns to first-half form, you may be better off waiting 170 picks and grabbing a similar player like C.J. Cron.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Aguilar's breakout may have seemed to come out of nowhere, but it was only the playing time that was particularly surprising. After slugging .505 in a short-end platoon role in 2017, he supplanted Eric Thames to pop 35 homers with a 134 wRC+ in a full-time role. All the hard hits and a high launch angle say the power is legit, but his contract skills don't support a .274 hitter. Drafters are naturally dubious of playing for a late bloomer's career year, but Milwaukee's starting first baseman shouldn't fall off a cliff entirely. He should at least remain good for a .250, 30-homer campaign.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros