Who Should I Draft?

Matt Carpenter or Jonathan Villar (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - BAL
Jonathan Villar
Expert
Recommendation
78%
Recommended by
45 of 58 experts
22%
Recommended by
13 of 58 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 49# 76
Best Rank# 12# 39
Worst Rank# 100# 111
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 65# 87
Best Rank# 58# 76
Worst Rank# 72# 110
   
Projections 
   
Runs9770
Home Runs2816
RBI7655
Stolen Bases337
Batting Average.256.254
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 51# 95
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 35# 69
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 39
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 47# 60
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 39# 85
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 50# 69
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 46# 51
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 68# 108
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 50# 55
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 36# 92
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 39
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 65# 68
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 37# 80
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 26# 81
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 71# 111
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 59# 68
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 48# 70
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 40# 65
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 37# 88
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 47# 71
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 59
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 47# 60
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 58# 82
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 36# 75
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 66# 77
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 48
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 37# 73
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 29# 73
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 50# 66
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 51# 85
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 72# 86
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 51# 54
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 54# 110
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 57# 67
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 64# 93
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 61# 96
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 42# 76
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 55# 84
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 45# 79
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 58# 72
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 38# 86
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 39# 102
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 70# 71
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 24# 109
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 68
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 49# 48
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 53# 52
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 56# 51
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 62# 61
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 64# 55
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 65# 62
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 70# 56
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 76# 50
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 78# 61
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 78# 63
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 81# 62
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 83# 71
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 100# 53
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - BAL
Jonathan Villar
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats564466
   
Runs11154
   
Hits145121
   
Singles6792
   
Doubles4214
   
Triples01
   
Home Runs3614
   
RBI8146
   
Stolen Bases435
   
Caught Stealing15
   
Walks10241
   
Strikeouts158138
   
Batting Average.257.260
   
On Base Pct.374.325
   
Slugging Pct.523.384
   
On-base Plus Slugging.897.709
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - BAL
Jonathan Villar
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats529535
   
Runs9770
   
Hits135136
   
Singles7197
   
Doubles3523
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs2816
   
RBI7655
   
Stolen Bases337
   
Caught Stealing210
   
Walks9549
   
Strikeouts140158
   
Batting Average.256.254
   
On Base Pct.369.318
   
Slugging Pct.486.394
   
On-base Plus Slugging.855.712
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS - BAL
Jonathan Villar
News 
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-2 with a go-ahead solo home run in Thursday's win over the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 20th
Jonathan Villar went 1-for-3 with a steal, run and walk during a 5-3 victory against the Mariners on Friday.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 21st
 Matt Carpenter did not start Tuesday's game against the Nationals, and went 0-for-1 as a pinch hitter.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 18th
Jonathan Villar went 3-for-5 with a solo home run, double, stolen base and three runs scored Wednesday against the Blue Jays.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 19th
 Matt Carpenter went 2-for-3 with two walks, two singles, an RBI, and a run scored in Thursday's win over the Giants.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 5th
Jonathan Villar went 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk on Tuesday as the Orioles lost to the Blue Jays.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 18th
 Matt Carpenter went 3-for-4 with a home run, three runs scored, two RBI, and a walk in Sunday's win over the Rockies.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 26th
Jonathan Villar went 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored as the Orioles won over the Tigers on Friday night by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 14th
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with a walk as the Cardinals defeated the Royals 2-0.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Aug 13th
Jonathan Villar went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run Wednesday against the Dodgers.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 12th
Notes 
 Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Villar was Adalberto Mondesi version 1.0, posting an unreal .285-19 HRs-62 SBs line in 2016 before falling back to .241-11-23 in 2017. He split the difference last year, and with regular playing time ahead of him in Baltimore, he seems likely to post another .250-15-30 season. It's rarely pretty with Villar, but he could be a solid roto/categories league value going outside the top-100 picks in fantasy drafts.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Carpenter blew¬†away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Villar was a major disappointment in 2017 after being selected in the third, and even second round of fantasy drafts. As a result, he was an afterthought in 2018, and for the first half of the season, it was a good call. Once Villar was dealt to the Orioles, though, he took off. In those 54 games, he managed eight homers and 21 steals, which over a full season would have been 24 and 64, respectively. Think that type of production is impossible? Rewind to 2016 when he hit 19 with 62 steals and a .285 batting average. Villar still has that ceiling and you can get him in the middle of your drafts this year.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
After getting shipped out of Milwaukee to Baltimore, Villar won some leagues down the stretch. In 54 games with his new club, the middle infielder batted .258 with eight homers and 21 steals. Like Adalberto Mondesi, he offers mouth-watering steals upside with a chance to also deliver 15-20 long balls. Unlike Mondesi, Villar can draw a walk. He also manifested this fantastical ceiling when batting .285 with 19 homers and 62 steals in 2016. Oh yeah, he's also much cheaper. A poor contact profile presents significant batting-average downside, but the speed makes him a tantalizing upside pick.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros