Who Should I Draft?

Matt Carpenter or Nicholas Castellanos (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
Expert
Recommendation
57%
Recommended by
32 of 56 experts
43%
Recommended by
24 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 50# 53
Best Rank# 12# 35
Worst Rank# 100# 88
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 65# 90
Best Rank# 58# 53
Worst Rank# 72# 100
   
Projections 
   
Runs9782
Home Runs2825
RBI7690
Stolen Bases33
Batting Average.256.283
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 51# 65
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 35# 66
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 50
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 47# 48
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 39# 51
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 50# 51
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 46# 56
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 36# 69
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 65
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 65# 86
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 37# 64
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 26# 80
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 48# 55
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 40# 54
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 37# 46
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 47# 51
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 78
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 47# 48
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 36# 56
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 47# 57
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 48# 53
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 37# 59
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 29# 48
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 56# 60
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 49# 58
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 62# 63
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 51# 88
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 64# 67
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 55# 62
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 39# 65
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 24# 45
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 58
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 50# 49
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 50# 47
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 51# 47
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 53# 47
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 54# 50
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 57# 56
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 58# 51
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 59# 51
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 61# 53
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 64# 49
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 65# 47
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 66# 39
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 68# 52
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 70# 64
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 70# 35
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 71# 41
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 72# 44
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 76# 48
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 78# 55
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 78# 39
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 81# 79
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 83# 69
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 100# 69
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 48
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats564620
   
Runs11188
   
Hits145185
   
Singles67111
   
Doubles4246
   
Triples05
   
Home Runs3623
   
RBI8189
   
Stolen Bases42
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks10249
   
Strikeouts158151
   
Batting Average.257.298
   
On Base Pct.374.354
   
Slugging Pct.523.500
   
On-base Plus Slugging.897.854
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats529592
   
Runs9782
   
Hits135168
   
Singles7197
   
Doubles3539
   
Triples26
   
Home Runs2825
   
RBI7690
   
Stolen Bases33
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks9547
   
Strikeouts140141
   
Batting Average.256.283
   
On Base Pct.369.336
   
Slugging Pct.486.498
   
On-base Plus Slugging.855.834
   
  Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
News 
 Matt Carpenter went 3-for-4 with a solo home run and three runs scored in the Cardinals' 5-0 win over the Marlins on Monday.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 in an 8-0 loss to the Indians on Sunday.
Matthew Terelle
Mon, Jun 17th
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with an RBI on Thursday against the Mets.
Dan Harris
Fri, Jun 14th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a 3-2 loss to the Royals on Tuesday.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Jun 12th
 Carpenter is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 7th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 with a double in a 4-0 loss to the Rays on Wednesday.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Jun 6th
 Carpenter was pulled in the top of the eighth inning of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Reds; he was replaced at third base by Jedd Gyorko.
James Bisson
Thu, Jun 6th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-5 with a two-run homer in an 8-2 win over the Braves on Friday.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, Jun 1st
 Matt Carpenter went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit, solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 30th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in a 4-3 loss to the Mets on Sunday.
Matthew Terelle
Mon, May 27th
Notes 
 Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
There's no doubt that Castellanos is a solid fantasy option, but last season's .298 batting average looks due for quite a bit of regression, he doesn't run, and his run production numbers could also take a hit as the Tigers enter into a full-on rebuild. There are better outfielders available at his late-seventh round ADP.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Carpenter blew¬†away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
After showing solid contact in 2016 and power in 2017, Castellanos put it all together to hit .298/.354/.500 with 23 homers. Even playing every day in a desolate Detroit lineup led him to 88 runs and 89 RBI, so he's a high-floor option entering his age-27 season. The ceiling, however, is also limited. While he continues to make more hard contact, he'll struggle to maintain such a high average with the third-highest swinging-strike rate (15.8%) of all qualified hitters. Pay for a steady hand rather than a burgeoning star with more room for growth.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Castellanos was a disappointment for so long that it may still be hanging over his stock. The fact of the matter, however, is that he has been great the past two season, hitting .285 with 49 homers and 190 RBIs. He only qualifies as an outfielder now, but should be regarded every bit as high as someone like Justin Upton or Mitch Haniger.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros