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Who Should I Draft?

Matt Chapman or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
Expert
Recommendation
96%
Recommended by
49 of 51 experts
4%
Recommended by
2 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 61
Best Rank# 12# 46
Worst Rank# 65# 94
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 98
Best Rank# 40# 93
Worst Rank# 54# 122
   
Projections 
   
Runs8488
Home Runs2732
RBI9589
Stolen Bases32
Batting Average.288.251
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 51
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 67
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 71
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 79
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 27# 48
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 57
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 33# 62
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 49
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 32# 71
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 48
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 50# 66
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 32# 62
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 37# 68
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 79
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 41# 55
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 27# 50
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 66
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 49# 59
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 33# 60
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 41# 65
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 55
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 49# 55
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 41# 59
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 64
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 33# 64
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 20# 52
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 65
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 69
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 31# 79
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 38# 72
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 37# 60
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 44# 68
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 68
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 31# 64
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 66
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 32# 79
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 76
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 31# 64
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 25# 62
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 37# 65
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 42# 72
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 41# 66
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 42# 94
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 28# 67
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 35# 64
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 35# 54
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 32# 54
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 37# 59
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 37# 55
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 59# 46
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 65# 47
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats221142
   
Runs3422
   
Hits5833
   
Singles3412
   
Doubles139
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs910
   
RBI3325
   
Stolen Bases20
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks208
   
Strikeouts3854
   
Batting Average.262.232
   
On Base Pct.329.276
   
Slugging Pct.462.535
   
On-base Plus Slugging.791.812
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats554547
   
Runs8488
   
Hits158136
   
Singles9566
   
Doubles3233
   
Triples34
   
Home Runs2732
   
RBI9589
   
Stolen Bases32
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks5659
   
Strikeouts101159
   
Batting Average.288.251
   
On Base Pct.354.324
   
Slugging Pct.502.502
   
On-base Plus Slugging.856.826
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's 7-3 loss to Minnesota.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
Matt Chapman went 2-for-4 with one RBI, one run, one walk and one strikeout in the Athletics 3-2 extra-inning win on Sunday against the Angels.
Ari Koslow
Mon, Sep 20th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-4 with one RBI and one strikeout in the Athletics 3-1 win on Saturday against the Angels.
Ari Koslow
Sun, Sep 19th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-8 with a solo home run and three runs scored across both games of Saturday's doubleheader versus Baltimore.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 12th
A's 3B Matt Chapman (shin) remains sidelined on Thursday against the Royals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 16th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Thursday's 6-4 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 10th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-4 with one RBI, one run and two strikeouts in the Athletics 5-1 win on Wednesday against the White Sox.
Ari Koslow
Thu, Sep 9th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with a solo home run in Monday's 8-0 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 7th
Matt Chapman went 0-for-2 with one walk and two strikeouts in the Athletics 8-0 loss on Sunday against Toronto.
Ari Koslow
Mon, Sep 6th
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Chapman lost a significant chunk of his 2020 season to a torn labrum in his hip, and had surgery to repair the injury. It seems obvious that the injury was bothering him all year, as evidenced by his massive jump in strikeout rate (35.5%) and corresponding drop in walk rate. There's little reason to give Chapman's 2020 season any credence given what he'd shown the previous two years. Expect him to bounce back to the 30-homer bat with decent all-around production that we had come to expect, and enjoy the discount that his numbers from last year provide.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros