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Who Should I Draft?

Max Scherzer or Luis Castillo (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
75%
Recommended by
38 of 51 experts
25%
Recommended by
13 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 9# 11
Best Rank# 4# 6
Worst Rank# 14# 17
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 23# 27
Best Rank# 21# 24
Worst Rank# 25# 38
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts232216
Wins1313
Saves00
ERA3.363.52
WHIP1.111.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 12
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 4# 14
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 10# 11
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 13# 14
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 8# 12
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 6# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 15
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 6# 7
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 12
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 8# 11
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 8# 10
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 7# 11
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 7# 8
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 4# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 6# 12
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 10
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 10# 11
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 11
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 9# 12
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 9# 14
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 9# 13
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 10# 14
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 9# 11
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 9# 11
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 4# 10
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 8# 11
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 7# 9
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 9# 10
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 7# 17
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 8# 13
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 8# 9
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 11# 14
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 7# 13
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 10# 12
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 12# 13
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 9# 10
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 12# 13
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 7# 15
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 9# 8
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 9# 8
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 9# 8
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 10# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 10# 8
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 10# 8
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 11# 8
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 11# 7
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 11# 9
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 11# 10
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 12# 8
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 13# 6
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 14# 6
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started1212
   
Innings Pitched67.170.1
   
Wins54
   
Losses46
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed7062
   
Earned Runs2826
   
Home Runs Allowed105
   
Strikeouts9289
   
Walks2324
   
ERA3.743.34
   
WHIP1.381.23
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3031
   
Games Started3031
   
Innings Pitched179.4183.9
   
Wins1313
   
Losses89
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed152154
   
Earned Runs6772
   
Home Runs Allowed2521
   
Strikeouts232216
   
Walks4763
   
ERA3.363.52
   
WHIP1.111.18
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 RHP Max Scherzer took a no-decision on Thursday when he allowed five runs on six hits with one walk and six strikeouts over five innings in the Dodgers' 7-5 win over the Rockies.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Sep 23rd
Luis Castillo (8-16) took the loss Thursday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on three hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 23rd
 RHP Max Scherzer blanked the Reds on Saturday when he allowed just two hits with two walks and seven strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in the Dodgers' 5-1 win.
Jon Mathisen
Sun, Sep 19th
Luis Castillo (8-15) earned the win Friday against the Dodgers, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and two walks. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 17th
 Max Scherzer went eight innings on Sunday, seven of them being perfect before giving up a hit in the eighth inning. He also struck out nine batters on his way to the 3,000 strikeout milestone.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
Luis Castillo did not factor into the decision in Saturday's loss to the Cardinals, allowing four runs on eight hits across seven innings. He walked one and struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 RHP Max Scherzer earned his 13th win of the season on Monday when he surrendered one unearned run on six hits with 13 strikeouts over eight innings as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-1.
Jon Mathisen
Mon, Sep 6th
Luis Castillo (7-15) was saddled with his league-leading 15th loss Sunday against the Tigers, allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 RHP Max Scherzer was dominant on Wednesday, allowing just three hits with zero walks and nine strikeouts over six innings as the Dodgers took out the Braves by a score of 4-3.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Sep 2nd
Luis Castillo (7-14) took the loss Monday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on five hits across six innings. He walked two and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 30th
Notes 
 Scherzer had a decent season for a mortal, but for someone with his career track record, it was a major disappointment. His 3.74 ERA was his highest since 2012, his 1.38 WHIP the highest of his career, and his 7.8% walk percentage his worst in a decade. Scherzer still struck out plenty of batters but entering his age-37 season and with a ton of mileage on his arm, it's only fair to accept that the old Scherzer is gone for good. But though he may not be a consensus top-three starter anymore, he's still perfectly capable of being a fantasy ace. After all, Scherzer's velocity hasn't declined much, and his 31.2% strikeout rate was tied for 10th among starters. Scherzer likely won't reach 200 innings pitched again and his ERA seems destined to remain above 3.00 going forward, but he's far from someone to avoid in fantasy drafts.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Castillo turned in another excellent season last year, cutting his walk rate and striking out batters at a higher rate than he ever had in his career. His WHIP increased to a career-worst 1.23, but that was largely due to bad luck, as batters hit .232 against him despite an expected batting average of just .212. Nevertheless, Castillo kept runs off the board, largely because he was able to avoid home runs (just five in 70 innings) and limit free passes. Castillo is capable of fronting a fantasy pitching staff, though he's more of a low-end ace, and there are plenty of trade rumors following him around. But, given his reliable production and increased strikeout rate the past two seasons, he can be drafted with confidence.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Scherzer's 4.21 xERA from the 2020 season was the first time that he didn't rate out well since Statcast began tracking this data in 2015. His surface level numbers didn't suffer all that much, especially when it came to strikeouts, which makes this a dangerous profile to bet on. And that's before we mention the fact that Scherzer will turn 37 this summer. Can we trust him to stay healthy over the course of a full season? It never feels good betting against Scherzer, but there are some safer options going around his ADP right now.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros