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Who Should I Draft?

Mike Trout or Fernando Tatis Jr. (2021)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
Experts' Pick
  Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
50%
Recommended by
3 of 6 experts
50%
Recommended by
3 of 6 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 3# 4
Best Rank# 1# 1
Worst Rank# 4# 5
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 4# 3
Best Rank# 3# 2
Worst Rank# 5# 4
   
Projections 
   
Runs112109
Home Runs4336
RBI11098
Stolen Bases1225
Batting Average.296.290
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 4# 1
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 4# 2
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 3
   
Brendan Tuma
BettingPros
# 1# 5
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 2# 4
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 3# 4
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats199224
   
Runs4150
   
Hits5662
   
Singles2832
   
Doubles911
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs1717
   
RBI4645
   
Stolen Bases111
   
Caught Stealing13
   
Walks3527
   
Strikeouts5661
   
Batting Average.281.277
   
On Base Pct.390.366
   
Slugging Pct.603.571
   
On-base Plus Slugging.993.937
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats502556
   
Runs112109
   
Hits149161
   
Singles7590
   
Doubles2727
   
Triples36
   
Home Runs4336
   
RBI11098
   
Stolen Bases1225
   
Caught Stealing38
   
Walks11361
   
Strikeouts139165
   
Batting Average.296.290
   
On Base Pct.426.360
   
Slugging Pct.602.549
   
On-base Plus Slugging1.028.909
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Mike Trout
CF - LAA
Mike Trout
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
News 
  The Padres are working on a contract extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. According to Jon Heyman and Jessica Kleinschmidt, Tatis' contract extension could be 11 years and $320 million.
Corbin Young
Sun, Jan 10th
Notes 
 For one of the first times since he took the league by storm, Trout is not the consensus top pick this year. It's hardly his fault, though it's fair to point out some of the negatives with his 2020 season. He batted a career-low .281, and posted his worst walk- and strikeout-rates since 2015. He also stole only one base. But Trout's move down the overall baseball rankings is due more to his competition for the top spot, rather than his numbers. He was still among the league leaders in quality of contact and every expected statcast metric, and was on pace to hit 50 home runs over the course of a full season. Trout is entering his age-30 season, so although we've seen him rebound from poor stolen base years before, it now seems unlikely that he'll ever get back to much past low-double digits. That keeps him out of the top spot in rotisserie rankings, but his incredibly high floor makes him a top-five overall draft pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Tatis Jr. had an outstanding rookie year, but because he had outperformed his statcast data so significantly, many fantasy managers were worried that his numbers would regress in 2020. Although his batting average did come down (to a still respectable .277), he not only staved off regression, but he improved significantly in most areas. He cut his strikeout rate by 6%, upped his walk rate by 2.5%, and led the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. The fact that he's likely to throw in 25-30 steals over the course of a full season is just the cherry on top of elite fantasy production. He's a top-five overall pick with little or no downside and massive upside even off his incredible 2020 numbers.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 You won't find a safer first-round investment in all of fantasy baseball. However, entering Trout's age-29 season, it's now fair to consider several others worthy of the No. 1 overall pick come draft day. The biggest argument against Trout is a lack of stolen base upside. Trout swiped just one bag during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Still, the well-rounded power and on-base skills aren't going anywhere just yet.
Brendan Tuma - BettingPros
Tatis Jr. set the world on fire during July and August. September wasn't as pretty, however, as the electrifying shortstop hit just 208/.311/.403 in 90 plate appearances. This still generated a 96 wRC+, which means that even at his worst Tatis was only 4% worse than league average. He still hit four homers and stole four bases. Also, it was only one month. Tatis doesn't have a track record long enough for us to feel confident in him as a slump-proof bat, but only Ronald Acuña rivals his 40/40 upside.
Brendan Tuma - BettingPros