Who Should I Draft?

Miles Mikolas or Luis Castillo (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
73%
Recommended by
41 of 56 experts
27%
Recommended by
15 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 33# 41
Best Rank# 16# 22
Worst Rank# 88# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 98# 128
Best Rank# 90# 114
Worst Rank# 105# 846
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts149169
Wins1311
Saves00
ERA3.603.86
WHIP1.201.22
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 44
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 23# 39
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 30# 38
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 34# 56
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 30# 56
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 28# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 43# 66
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 34# 46
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 27# 45
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 31# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 27# 46
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 34# 42
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 26# 38
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 60
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 39# 48
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 45
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 33# 38
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 32# 35
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 43# 53
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 20# 34
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 33# 54
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 31# 46
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 35# 42
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 54
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 36# 40
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 32# 38
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 26# 39
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 29# 41
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 27# 44
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 26# 61
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 16# 67
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 28# 39
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 40# 44
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 17# 42
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 57# 78
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 39
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 32# 41
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 27# 54
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 22# 28
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 30# 39
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 35# 39
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 34# 22
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 36# 33
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 39# 33
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 41# 35
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 41# 38
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 41# 37
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 43# 28
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 43# 25
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 44# 41
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 46# 37
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 51# 35
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 53# 40
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 59# 30
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 62# 30
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 88# 59
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3231
   
Games Started3231
   
Innings Pitched201.3170.2
   
Wins1810
   
Losses412
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed186158
   
Earned Runs6381
   
Home Runs Allowed1628
   
Strikeouts146165
   
Walks2949
   
ERA2.834.30
   
WHIP1.071.22
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3130
   
Games Started3130
   
Innings Pitched191.7169.9
   
Wins1311
   
Losses910
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed192156
   
Earned Runs7773
   
Home Runs Allowed2124
   
Strikeouts149169
   
Walks3752
   
ERA3.603.86
   
WHIP1.201.22
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Miles Mikolas allowed one run on seven hits over five innings in the Cardinals' 6-4 loss to the Angels on Sunday. He walked two and struck out four while falling to 5-8.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 24th
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings on Saturday against the Brewers. He struck out six and took the loss.
Dan Harris
Mon, Jun 24th
 Miles Mikolas fired six scoreless innings and improved to 5-7 in the Cardinals' 5-0 win over the Marlins on Monday. He allowed six hits, walked none, and struck out four.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in the Reds' 3-2 win over the Astros on Monday. He walked six and struck out seven while improving to 7-1.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
 Miles Mikolas allowed five runs on eight hits and a walk over five innings on Wednesday against the Marlins. He struck out four and took the loss, falling to 4-7.
Dan Harris
Thu, Jun 13th
Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
 Mikolas was forced from Friday's game against the Chicago Cubs after pitching just four innings.
James Bisson
Fri, Jun 7th
Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
 Miles Mikolas allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in the Cardinals' 2-1 win over the Cubs on Friday. He walked two and struck out three in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Sat, Jun 1st
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
Notes 
 Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 It's easy to dismiss Mikolas' breakout as a fluke. In his first season back from a three-year stint in Japan, the righty registered 18 wins and a 2.83 ERA in 200.2 innings despite collecting just 146 strikeouts. The ERA will at least rise to his 3.28 FIP, if not higher, but the 30-year-old isn't necessarily a full-blown bust waiting to happen. No qualified starter submitted a lower walk rate (3.6%) than Mikolas, who limited hard contact and induced a 49.3% ground-ball rate. Also, he's not some mid-80s junkballer pitching solely to contact. A 9.6% swinging-strike rate finished right above David Price on the leaderboard, so there's at least a path to 160 punchouts. He throws harder, but Mikolas' final line could resemble Kyle Hendricks in 2018 (199 IP, 3.44 ERA, 161 K).
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
  One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros