Who Should I Draft?

Miles Mikolas or Masahiro Tanaka (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
37 of 59 experts
37%
Recommended by
22 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 33# 35
Best Rank# 16# 20
Worst Rank# 88# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 98# 120
Best Rank# 90# 97
Worst Rank# 105# 129
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts149166
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.603.80
WHIP1.201.17
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
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Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 23# 27
   
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FullTime Fantasy
# 30# 43
   
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The Athletic
# 34# 37
   
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The Fantasy Fix
# 30# 32
   
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USA Today
# 28# 38
   
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RotoChamp
# 43# 51
   
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Fantasy Football Empire
# 27# 39
   
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The Athletic
# 31# 40
   
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CBS Sports
# 34# 41
   
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CBS Sports
# 26# 44
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
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The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 33# 35
   
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FantasyPros
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The Athletic
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Expand The Boxscore
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# 59# 42
   
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The Athletic
# 62# 54
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 88# 48
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3227
   
Games Started3227
   
Innings Pitched201.3156.0
   
Wins1812
   
Losses46
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed186141
   
Earned Runs6365
   
Home Runs Allowed1625
   
Strikeouts146159
   
Walks2935
   
ERA2.833.75
   
WHIP1.071.13
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3128
   
Games Started3128
   
Innings Pitched191.7165.0
   
Wins1312
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed192156
   
Earned Runs7770
   
Home Runs Allowed2124
   
Strikeouts149166
   
Walks3738
   
ERA3.603.80
   
WHIP1.201.17
   
  Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - NYY
Masahiro Tanaka
News 
 Miles Mikolas did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cubs, allowing two runs (one earned) on eight hits and one walk in 7.2 innings. He struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 22nd
Masahiro Tanaka went three innings and gave up two runs on five hits and one walk along with two strikeouts as he got hit with the loss Sunday against the Rangers.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 30th
 Miles Mikolas (9-14) took the loss Tuesday against the Nationals, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk across six innings. He struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 18th
Masahiro Tanaka picked up the win against the Angels on Thursday, giving up one earned run on four hits over seven innings, striking out six and walking none as the Yankees won by a 9-1 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 20th
 Miles Mikolas allowed one run on three hits with four walks across five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. He struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 7th
Masahiro Tanaka allowed four runs on eight hits with no walks and six strikeouts across five innings during a no-decision against the Blue Jays on Friday
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 14th
 Miles Mikolas did not factor into the decision in the first game of Sunday's double header, allowing three runs on four hits and no walks over six innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 1st
Masahiro Tanaka did not factor into the decision against Boston on Sunday, pitching four innings and giving up four runs on eight hits while striking out two. He did not walk a batter.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 9th
 Miles Mikolas (8-13) earned the win Tuesday against the Brewers, allowing one run on four hits and no walks over six innings. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 28th
Masahiro Tanaka took the loss Monday as the Yankees were blanked 7-0 by the Rangers, giving up two runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 3rd
Notes 
 Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Tanaka was basically the same pitcher last year as he was in 2017, but he shaved a run off of his ERA thanks to slight improvements in BABIP allowed, home runs allowed, and left-on-base percentage. Still, home runs remain an issue for Tanaka, which explains why his ERA generally lags behind his WHIP. He's also never made it to 200 innings, so he's not exactly a workhorse. At this point we should just accept Tanaka for what he is: a solid third or fourth fantasy starter.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 It's easy to dismiss Mikolas' breakout as a fluke. In his first season back from a three-year stint in Japan, the righty registered 18 wins and a 2.83 ERA in 200.2 innings despite collecting just 146 strikeouts. The ERA will at least rise to his 3.28 FIP, if not higher, but the 30-year-old isn't necessarily a full-blown bust waiting to happen. No qualified starter submitted a lower walk rate (3.6%) than Mikolas, who limited hard contact and induced a 49.3% ground-ball rate. Also, he's not some mid-80s junkballer pitching solely to contact. A 9.6% swinging-strike rate finished right above David Price on the leaderboard, so there's at least a path to 160 punchouts. He throws harder, but Mikolas' final line could resemble Kyle Hendricks in 2018 (199 IP, 3.44 ERA, 161 K).
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Tanaka's xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.50) dropped 0.02 points apiece, but his ERA plunged nearly a full run from 4.74 to 3.75. That works just fine when paired with a 1.13 WHIP and 9.17 K/9. His elite skills support last season's approved ERA if he can avoid home-run catastrophe in Yankee Stadium. Just prepare to assume some added volatility when his splitter isn't clicking, and he's more likely to work 160 innings than 190. Those risks are all factored into his reasonable SP3 price.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros