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Who Should I Draft?

Nelson Cruz or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nelson Cruz
DH - MIN
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Expert
Recommendation
58%
Recommended by
32 of 55 experts
42%
Recommended by
23 of 55 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 60# 64
Best Rank# 33# 39
Worst Rank# 117# 138
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 85# 56
Best Rank# 64# 51
Worst Rank# 92# 60
   
Projections 
   
Runs76
Home Runs3418
RBI89
Stolen Bases1
Batting Avg.269
Strikeouts143174
Wins9
Saves0
ERA3.63
WHIP1.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL10
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 57
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 49# 62
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 60# 65
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 102# 120
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 75# 78
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 58# 92
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 59# 128
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 66# 138
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 58# 75
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 44# 70
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 73# 79
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 51# 74
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 59# 78
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 59# 69
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 60# 68
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 53# 76
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 56# 93
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 56# 59
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 62# 67
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 73
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 59# 81
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 56# 72
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 71# 73
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 60# 71
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 33# 71
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 44# 61
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 43# 62
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 64# 71
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 61# 64
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 59# 76
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 50# 81
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 51# 60
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 51# 45
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 54# 41
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 59# 50
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 59# 47
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 60# 44
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 61# 51
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 62# 54
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 63# 59
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 63# 61
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 63# 59
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 68# 51
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 69# 51
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 71# 63
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 71# 60
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 74# 52
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 78# 56
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 81# 66
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 90# 59
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 90# 82
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 92# 40
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 111# 90
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 113# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 117# 109
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nelson Cruz
DH - MIN
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs33
   
Home Runs162
   
RBI33
   
Stolen Bases0
   
Batting Avg.303
   
Strikeouts5888
   
Wins4
   
Saves0
   
ERA2.11
   
WHIP1.02
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nelson Cruz
DH - MIN
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs76
   
Home Runs3418
   
RBI89
   
Stolen Bases1
   
Batting Avg.269
   
Strikeouts143174
   
Wins9
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.63
   
WHIP1.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nelson Cruz
DH - MIN
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
News 
 Minnesota Twins DH Nelson Cruz went 2-for-4 in a 3-1 loss to the Rangers on Wednesday.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, May 6th
Corbin Burnes (COVID-19 IL) may have his return timeline specified by this weekend, according to manager Craig Counsell.
Connor Rooney
Thu, May 6th
 Minnesota Twins DH Nelson Cruz went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer in an 11-3 loss to the Royals on Saturday.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, May 1st
The Brewers placed pitcher Corbin Burnes (undisclosed) on the injured list Thursday.
Brad Camara
Thu, Apr 29th
 Minnesota DH Nelson Cruz went 0-for-2 with a run, an RBI, and two walks in a 9-1 win over the Royals on Friday.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, May 1st
Corbin Burnes (2-2) allowed five runs (four earned) on eight hits over five innings Monday, striking out nine and taking the loss against the Marlins.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Apr 27th
 Minnesota Twins DH Nelson Cruz went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a 6-2 loss to the Pirates on Sunday.
Matthew Terelle
Sun, Apr 25th
Corbin Burnes (2-1) pitched six scoreless innings while allowing six hits and no walks. He struck out 10, earning the win against the Padres.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 21st
 Minnesota DH Nelson Cruz went 2-for-5 with two homers and four RBI in a 13-12 loss to Oakland on Wednesday.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Apr 21st
Corbin Burnes (1-1) was phenomenal against the Cubs on Wednesday, tossing six shutout innings while allowing two hits and no walks. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 14th
Notes 
 If you ascribe to the "I'd rather jump off a year too early than too late" philosophy, then you probably haven't been drafting Cruz for the last several years. But if not, then you've not only drafted one of the most underrated fantasy bats in recent memory, but you're probably going to do so again this year. Cruz is back on a one-year deal with the Twins, and he's coming off another utterly dominant season. Fine, his strikeout rate rose again a bit, he didn't hit the ball quite as hard, and he's eligible at utility only. But other than the fact that he will be 41 years old this season, there's nothing in his profile that should cause you to expect significant decline. Prepare to be having the same debate next year, after Crus puts up another 35-homer season this year.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros