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Who Should I Draft?

Nelson Cruz or Corbin Burnes (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nelson Cruz
DH - TB
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Expert
Recommendation
59%
Recommended by
33 of 56 experts
41%
Recommended by
23 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 60# 64
Best Rank# 33# 39
Worst Rank# 117# 138
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 85# 56
Best Rank# 64# 51
Worst Rank# 92# 60
   
Projections 
   
Runs76
Home Runs3418
RBI89
Stolen Bases1
Batting Avg.269
Strikeouts143174
Wins9
Saves0
ERA3.63
WHIP1.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 57
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 49# 62
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 60# 65
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 102# 120
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 75# 78
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 58# 92
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 59# 128
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 66# 138
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 58# 75
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 44# 70
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 73# 79
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 51# 74
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 59# 78
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 59# 69
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 60# 68
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 53# 76
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 56# 93
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 56# 59
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 62# 67
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 73
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 59# 81
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 47# 112
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 56# 72
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 71# 73
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 60# 71
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 33# 71
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 44# 61
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 43# 62
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 64# 71
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 61# 64
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 59# 76
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 50# 81
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 51# 60
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 51# 45
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 54# 41
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 59# 50
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 59# 47
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 60# 44
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 61# 51
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 62# 54
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 63# 59
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 63# 61
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 63# 59
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 68# 51
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 69# 51
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 71# 63
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 71# 60
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 74# 52
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 78# 56
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 81# 66
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 90# 59
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 90# 82
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 92# 40
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 111# 90
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 113# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 117# 109
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nelson Cruz
DH - TB
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs33
   
Home Runs162
   
RBI33
   
Stolen Bases0
   
Batting Avg.303
   
Strikeouts5888
   
Wins4
   
Saves0
   
ERA2.11
   
WHIP1.02
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nelson Cruz
DH - TB
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs76
   
Home Runs3418
   
RBI89
   
Stolen Bases1
   
Batting Avg.269
   
Strikeouts143174
   
Wins9
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.63
   
WHIP1.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nelson Cruz
DH - TB
Nelson Cruz
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
News 
 Nelson Cruz went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Friday's 4-3 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Sat, Oct 2nd
Corbin Burnes will not be starting Tuesday's Game 4 elimination game for Milwaukee.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Oct 11th
 Nelson Cruz went 1-for-5 with three strikeouts and scored a run as the Rays beat the Marlins by an 8-0 score.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 25th
The Brewers announced RHP Corbin Burnes will be the team's NLDS Game 1 starter against the Braves.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Oct 6th
 Nelson Cruz (forearm) was out of the lineup for Friday's game against the Tigers, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
Corbin Burnes (11-5) took the loss Saturday against the Dodgers, allowing three runs on two hits in two innings. He walked one and struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Oct 3rd
 Nelson Cruz went 2-for-5 with a run scored on Saturday as the Rays beat the Tigers by a 7-2 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 12th
Corbin Burnes (11-4) earned the win Saturday against the Mets, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. He walked one and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
 Nelson Cruz went 4-for-5 with two home runs, a double, four RBI, and three total runs scored in Tuesday's 12-7 win over Boston.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 8th
Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on six hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
Notes 
 If you ascribe to the "I'd rather jump off a year too early than too late" philosophy, then you probably haven't been drafting Cruz for the last several years. But if not, then you've not only drafted one of the most underrated fantasy bats in recent memory, but you're probably going to do so again this year. Cruz is back on a one-year deal with the Twins, and he's coming off another utterly dominant season. Fine, his strikeout rate rose again a bit, he didn't hit the ball quite as hard, and he's eligible at utility only. But other than the fact that he will be 41 years old this season, there's nothing in his profile that should cause you to expect significant decline. Prepare to be having the same debate next year, after Crus puts up another 35-homer season this year.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros