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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Aaron Judge (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
32 of 51 experts
37%
Recommended by
19 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 30# 33
Best Rank# 9# 24
Worst Rank# 60# 51
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 33# 44
Best Rank# 30# 40
Worst Rank# 42# 52
   
Projections 
   
Runs8592
Home Runs3135
RBI9785
Stolen Bases24
Batting Average.274.263
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 33
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 29# 36
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 34# 41
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 37
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 9# 26
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 44
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 41# 51
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 29# 35
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 29# 35
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 36
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 20# 35
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 34
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 31
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 37# 38
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 19# 33
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 24# 45
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 26# 32
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 29# 32
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 29# 39
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 32# 40
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 18# 36
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 29# 35
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 29# 34
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 20# 29
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 35
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 31# 50
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 19# 27
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 14# 32
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 31# 34
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 33# 38
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 29# 30
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 31# 29
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 30
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 32# 31
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 26
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 31
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 37# 32
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 27
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 39# 35
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 40# 24
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 41# 34
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 41# 33
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 37
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 42# 41
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 45# 38
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 47# 44
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 51# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 53# 36
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 60# 27
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats182101
   
Runs2323
   
Hits4626
   
Singles2914
   
Doubles93
   
Triples00
   
Home Runs89
   
RBI2622
   
Stolen Bases00
   
Caught Stealing01
   
Walks1510
   
Strikeouts2032
   
Batting Average.253.257
   
On Base Pct.304.336
   
Slugging Pct.434.555
   
On-base Plus Slugging.738.891
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats571476
   
Runs8592
   
Hits155123
   
Singles9366
   
Doubles2921
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs3135
   
RBI9785
   
Stolen Bases24
   
Caught Stealing13
   
Walks6178
   
Strikeouts95167
   
Batting Average.274.263
   
On Base Pct.345.368
   
Slugging Pct.494.528
   
On-base Plus Slugging.839.896
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
News 
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a solo homer and two RBI in a 6-2 win over the Brewers on Tuesday as St. Louis clinched a playoff berth in the National League.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 28th
Aaron Judge went 1-for-4 with a walk and drove in a run on Sunday as the Yankees beat the Rays by a 1-0 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in a 5-2 win over the Brewers on Monday night.
Lucas Spence
Mon, Sep 20th
Aaron Judge went 2-for-3 with two solo home runs and a walk Thursday in a win against the Blue Jays by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
Aaron Judge went 2-for-2 with a solo home run, two RBI, two runs scored, and a pair of walks during Tuesday's win over the Blue Jays.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 29th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk and scored a run on Saturday as the Yankees beat the Red Sox by a 5-3 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 26th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 with a double, home run and drove in three on Tuesday as the Yankees defeated the Rangers by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 22nd
Notes 
 On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Judge missed about half of the regular season last year with a calf strain, though he still hit for plenty of power when he was in the lineup. He walked and struck out a bit less than usual, but trying to glean anything from a 28-game sample, given Judge's history, is silly. When he's in the lineup, you know you'll get a ton of power and runs scored with a passable average. The key is "when he's in the lineup," however, as injuries have forced Judge to miss significant time over the last three seasons. So long as you factor that into your draft price and select him as an OF2, you'll be happy with the production.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros