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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Blake Snell (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Blake Snell
SP - SD
Blake Snell
Expert
Recommendation
51%
Recommended by
28 of 55 experts
49%
Recommended by
27 of 55 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 43# 44
Best Rank# 12# 23
Worst Rank# 80# 98
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 33# 43
Best Rank# 30# 36
Worst Rank# 42# 49
   
Projections 
   
Runs85
Home Runs3119
RBI97
Stolen Bases2
Batting Avg.274
Strikeouts95188
Wins11
Saves0
ERA3.43
WHIP1.16
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 45# 55
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 55
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 44# 64
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 35# 83
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 44# 60
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 28
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 42# 45
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 44# 75
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 40# 45
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 42# 45
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 42# 47
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 29# 52
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 36# 48
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 38# 49
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 27# 48
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 45# 51
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 32# 39
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 41# 46
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 45# 46
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 51
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 41# 45
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 34# 48
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 23# 50
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 45# 98
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 22# 34
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 19# 53
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 44# 46
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 40# 50
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 41# 25
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 37
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 43# 38
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 43# 41
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 44# 40
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 45# 41
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 46# 44
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 47# 46
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 48# 42
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 51# 43
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 52# 23
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 52# 49
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 53# 48
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 55# 48
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 55# 48
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 56# 27
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 56# 43
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 58# 43
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 58# 31
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 59# 55
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 63# 48
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 63# 57
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 66# 53
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 70# 37
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 74# 34
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 80# 46
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 80# 50
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Blake Snell
SP - SD
Blake Snell
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs23
   
Home Runs810
   
RBI26
   
Stolen Bases0
   
Batting Avg.253
   
Strikeouts2063
   
Wins4
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.24
   
WHIP1.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Blake Snell
SP - SD
Blake Snell
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs85
   
Home Runs3119
   
RBI97
   
Stolen Bases2
   
Batting Avg.274
   
Strikeouts95188
   
Wins11
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.43
   
WHIP1.16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Blake Snell
SP - SD
Blake Snell
News 
 Nolan Arenado came to the plate in the third inning on Monday, trailing 5-2 with two on and two out, and unloaded a three-run home run to left field off of Mets starter Joey Lucchesi to tie the game. Arenado finished the evening 1-for-3 with a walk as well.
Lucas Spence
Tue, May 4th
Blake Snell gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings pitched in the Padres' win over the Giants on Saturday. Snell struck out 6 and walked 3 in the outing.
Matt Flipi
Sun, May 2nd
 Nolan Arenado went 3-for-4 with a walk, a single, a double, a triple, two runs scored, and three RBI in a 12-5 win over the Pirates on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, May 1st
Blake Snell gave up 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched in the Padres' loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Snell struck out 7 and walked 2 in the outing.
Matt Flipi
Sun, Apr 25th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with two doubles and two RBI in a 7-3 win over the Pirates on Friday.
Lucas Spence
Fri, Apr 30th
Blake Snell gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings pitched in the Padres' win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Snell struck out 7 in the outing and walked 2.
Matt Flipi
Mon, Apr 19th
 Nolan Arenado made his presence felt all over the field on Tuesday, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and an RBI while also making a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in foul territory to retire Bryce Harper.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Apr 28th
Blake Snell pitched 2/3 of an inning and gave up 3 earned runs in the Padres' loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. Snell struck out 1 and walked 2 in the outing.
Matt Flipi
Wed, Apr 14th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with an RBI single in a win over Cincinnati on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Apr 24th
Blake Snell gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings pitched in the Padres' loss to the Giants on Wednesday. Snell struck out 8 in the outing and walked 4.
Matt Flipi
Wed, Apr 7th
Notes 
 On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Snell moves to the Padres fresh off a solid year, in which he pitched to a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with a memorable early exit in the World Series. Snell has a checkered injury history and has pitched just 157 innings over the past two years, so don't expect him to be a big innings-eater in 2021. And, although he'll escape the dreaded AL East, he'll get a downgrade in park and defense, which largely makes the move a neutral one. All that said, Snell has plenty of talent as he's shown throughout his career, and should be able to pile up wins and strikeouts pitching for a strong Padres team. Draft him as an SP2 with upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Blake Snell made 16 starts in 2020, including the playoffs, and didn't finish six innings in any of them. In fact, the lefty hasn't completed six innings since July 21st, 2019. This is a killer for fantasy leagues that use quality starts as a category, but Snell still has the skills to be useful for fantasy purposes. If he had the innings to qualify then Snell would have the second-best swinging strike rate among starters since the beginning of '19. Perhaps the Padres will allow him to pitch deeper into starts. This could be a case of efficiency meeting added volume, which usually equates to fantasy goodness.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
 Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros