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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Bo Bichette (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Bo Bichette
SS - TOR
Bo Bichette
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
83%
Recommended by
20 of 24 experts
17%
Recommended by
4 of 24 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 15# 28
Best Rank# 11# 14
Worst Rank# 37# 51
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 28
Best Rank# 23# 21
Worst Rank# 32# 38
   
Projections 
   
Runs9186
Home Runs2332
RBI8599
Stolen Bases212
Batting Average.287.277
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 26
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 28
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 30# 34
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 15# 17
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 35
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 16# 32
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 14# 30
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 19# 20
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 17# 43
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 14# 33
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 15# 26
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 16# 19
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 35
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 11# 17
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 16# 25
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 18# 30
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 15# 42
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 19# 51
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 23# 33
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 16# 29
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 15# 14
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 17# 14
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 21# 17
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 37# 18
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Bo Bichette
SS - TOR
Bo Bichette
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats123182
   
Runs1823
   
Hits3746
   
Singles2229
   
Doubles99
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs58
   
RBI2326
   
Stolen Bases40
   
Caught Stealing10
   
Walks515
   
Strikeouts2720
   
Batting Average.301.253
   
On Base Pct.328.304
   
Slugging Pct.512.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.840.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Bo Bichette
SS - TOR
Bo Bichette
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats578574
   
Runs9186
   
Hits164157
   
Singles9794
   
Doubles4030
   
Triples42
   
Home Runs2332
   
RBI8599
   
Stolen Bases212
   
Caught Stealing81
   
Walks4161
   
Strikeouts12594
   
Batting Average.287.277
   
On Base Pct.332.344
   
Slugging Pct.492.499
   
On-base Plus Slugging.824.843
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Bo Bichette
SS - TOR
Bo Bichette
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
  According to Mark Feinsand, the trade between the Rockies and Cardinals is official. The Cardinals officially acquired Nolan Arenado plus cash considerations for Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Tony Locey, Mateo Gil, and Jake Sommers.
Corbin Young
Mon, Feb 1st
  The Rockies have traded 3B Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals on Friday.
Brad Camara
Fri, Jan 29th
  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals and Rockies are discussing a trade involving Nolan Arenado. At this point, it's mostly speculation, but the trade rumors involving Arenado have been happening.
Corbin Young
Fri, Jan 29th
Notes 
 Bichette missed about half the season with a knee injury last year, but was productive when he was on the field, batting .301 with an .840 OPS. His 162-game pace was 28 home runs, 100 runs, 128 RBI, and 22 steals, so he was well on his way to earning his lofty draft price. If there was a wart to Bichette's season it was that his walk rate dropped to just 3.9%, one of the worst in the league. But, given that he had just 128 plate appearances, that's likely just the product of a small sample size, since he never walked at less than a 6.6% clip in his career. Batting in a stacked lineup, Bichette should once again put up strong five-category numbers, and should be one of the first shortstops drafted in fantasy leagues again in 2020.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Bo Bichette slashed .301/.328/.512 with five home runs and four stolen bases across 128 plate appearances in 2020. The 22-year-old has successfully swiped eight bases in just 13 attempts in his MLB career, but has yet to flash the speed he displayed in the minors. He has a ton of upside and should once again produce in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Bichette has plenty of room for growth and is considered a top-10 middle-infield option in 2021.
Brad Camara - FantasyPros
270 - 35 - 0
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
 Frankly, I've been shocked to see how high Bichette is going in fantasy drafts so far this offseason. We're spending second-round picks on a player with just 75 big league games to his name? Of course, his 162-game pace equates to 35 homers and 17 stolen bases, and Toronto's lineup only got better this winter. There are a lot of reasons to be bullish on Bichette these days, but I can't pass on established studs like Xander Bogaerts and Nolan Arenado for him. Perhaps Bichette's aggressive ADP is due to the need for stolen bases. In that case, it's worth pointing out that the youngster is just 8-for-13 in theft attempts to begin his career.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros