Who Should I Draft?
Nolan Arenado or Luis Robert (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Luis Robert CF - CWS  | Nolan Arenado 3B - STL  | |
Expert |
70% Recommended by 35 of 50 experts |
30% Recommended by 15 of 50 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 26 | # 30 |
| Best Rank | # 11 | # 9 |
| Worst Rank | # 74 | # 60 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 39 | # 33 |
| Best Rank | # 34 | # 30 |
| Worst Rank | # 48 | # 42 |
| Projections | ||
| Runs | 85 | 85 |
| Home Runs | 28 | 31 |
| RBI | 83 | 97 |
| Stolen Bases | 22 | 2 |
| Batting Average | .253 | .274 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 22 | # 32 |
| Steve Gardner USA Today | # 25 | # 31 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 21 | # 29 |
| Grey Albright Razzball | # 16 | # 34 |
| Greg Smith The Fake Baseball | # 19 | # 37 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 26 | # 31 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 17 | # 36 |
| KJ Fantasy Team Advice | # 28 | # 39 |
| Luke Gloeckner Mr. Cheatsheet | # 23 | # 41 |
| Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain | # 26 | # 29 |
| Tim McCullough Baseball Prospectus | # 26 | # 30 |
| Rudy Gamble Razzball | # 18 | # 60 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 25 | # 41 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 27 | # 33 |
| Chris Meaney FTN | # 25 | # 26 |
| Andy Singleton Expand The Boxscore | # 25 | # 37 |
| Adam Ronis Fantasy Alarm | # 20 | # 31 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 30 | # 47 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 26 | # 36 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 28 | # 32 |
| Donkey Teeth Razzball | # 11 | # 41 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 23 | # 29 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 20 | # 29 |
| Mick Ciallela Fantrax | # 27 | # 29 |
| Michael Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | # 24 | # 45 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 27 | # 41 |
| Ryan Amore Pitcher List | # 20 | # 53 |
| Todd D Clark The Fantasy Fix | # 28 | # 29 |
| Lucas Spence Pitcher List | # 28 | # 40 |
| Jordan Eisen Field of Vision Sports | # 34 | # 37 |
| Staff Rankings Roto Ranks | # 27 | # 31 |
| Corbin Young FantasyData | # 31 | # 51 |
| Chris Clegg Fantrax | # 27 | # 33 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 27 | # 29 |
| Nicklaus Gaut RotoBaller | # 31 | # 42 |
| Muntradamus Beast Dome | # 74 | # 9 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 26 | # 14 |
| Dennis Sosic Fantasy Six Pack | # 21 | # 15 |
| Jacob W. Dunne New Life Fantasy | # 29 | # 17 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 27 | # 19 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 29 | # 19 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 30 | # 20 |
| Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall | # 32 | # 20 |
| Mario Mergola Sporfolio | # 31 | # 24 |
| Michael Waterloo FantasyPros | # 30 | # 26 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 29 | # 28 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 30 | # 29 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 34 | # 31 |
| Andrew Seifter FantasyPros | # 34 | # 32 |
| Max Freeze Freeze Stats | # 40 | # 38 |
| Luis Robert CF - CWS | Nolan Arenado 3B - STL | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| At Bats | 202 | 182 |
| Runs | 33 | 23 |
| Hits | 47 | 46 |
| Singles | 28 | 29 |
| Doubles | 8 | 9 |
| Triples | 0 | 0 |
| Home Runs | 11 | 8 |
| RBI | 31 | 26 |
| Stolen Bases | 9 | 0 |
| Caught Stealing | 2 | 0 |
| Walks | 20 | 15 |
| Strikeouts | 73 | 20 |
| Batting Average | .233 | .253 |
| On Base Pct | .302 | .304 |
| Slugging Pct | .436 | .434 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .738 | .738 |
| Luis Robert CF - CWS | Nolan Arenado 3B - STL | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| At Bats | 554 | 571 |
| Runs | 85 | 85 |
| Hits | 140 | 155 |
| Singles | 82 | 93 |
| Doubles | 26 | 29 |
| Triples | 3 | 2 |
| Home Runs | 28 | 31 |
| RBI | 83 | 97 |
| Stolen Bases | 22 | 2 |
| Caught Stealing | 7 | 1 |
| Walks | 43 | 61 |
| Strikeouts | 176 | 95 |
| Batting Average | .253 | .274 |
| On Base Pct | .307 | .345 |
| Slugging Pct | .465 | .494 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .772 | .839 |
| Luis Robert CF - CWS | Nolan Arenado 3B - STL | |
| News | ||
| Luis Robert went 3-for-4 with a double, one stolen base and one run scored in Tuesday's 8-5 win over Cleveland.
Brad Camara Wed, Apr 21st | Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with a walk, two runs scored, and two RBI while slugging his fourth home run of the season on Saturday. Lucas Spence Sat, Apr 17th | |
| Luis Robert went 1-for-4 with an RBI double during Monday’s 11-4 loss to the Red Sox. Brad Camara Mon, Apr 19th | Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run, two runs scored, and three RBI in a 14-3 win over the Nationals on Tuesday. Lucas Spence Wed, Apr 14th | |
| Luis Robert went 2-for-4 with a stolen base in Saturday's 7-4 loss to the Red Sox. Brad Camara Sun, Apr 18th | Nolan Arenado had a day to forget on Monday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a 5-2 loss to Washington. Lucas Spence Tue, Apr 13th | |
| Luis Robert went 2-for-5 with a double, an RBI and one run scored in Wednesday's 8-0 win over Cleveland. Brad Camara Thu, Apr 15th | With the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Nolan Arenado came to the plate and turned on a 97-mph inside fastball, crushing a two-run home run to left field and propelling the Cardinals to a 3-1 win over the Brewers on Thursday. It was Arenado's only hit in four at-bats. Lucas Spence Thu, Apr 8th | |
| Luis Robert went 1-for-5 with a double during Sunday’s 4-3 extra-inning loss to the Royals. Brad Camara Sun, Apr 11th | Nolan Arenado extended his season-opening hit streak to three games on Sunday, finishing 1-for-3 with a double. Lucas Spence Sun, Apr 4th | |
| Notes | ||
| Robert's production was pretty much what it was cracked up to be in terms of his power and speed, but his .233 batting average was a little hard to stomach. He struck out way too much (32.2% of the time, bottom 6% of the league), and just didn't make hard enough contact consistently to keep his average above water. But Robert will be just 24 years old this season, so there's plenty of room for growth in that area. That's particularly true given that Robert was a career .312 hitter in the minors and .314 in Cuba. Even if he was a batting average drain, which you shouldn't expect, given that he was on a roughly 30-25 full-season pace last year, fantasy managers should be able to stomach it. Draft him as a borderline first outfielder in fantasy leagues and reap the rewards. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| Luis Robert signed a long-term extension with the White Sox and has the upside to leap to superstardom in 2021. He slashed .233/.302/.406 with 10 home runs and nine stolen bases across 225 plate appearances. If it weren't for a rough September, Robert was well on his way to finishing as a top-20 player. His tools are off the chart and he will bat in the middle of a loaded White Sox lineup. Everything is lined up for Robert to bust out if he can put it all together in 2021. Brad Camara - FantasyPros | The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts. Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy | |
| Robert came out of the gate like a rocket before hitting just .136/.237/.173 in September. The concern entering 2021 is that pitchers have figured out the book on Robert. While he was doing damage in July and August, Robert was swinging at everything thrown his way. Eventually, pitchers stopped giving him chances. The issue is Robert kept swinging. Baseball is a game of adjustments and it's now on him to adjust back. The talent and skills are here. Even it comes with a weak batting average, Robert has enough power/speed upside to remain fantasy relevant amid slumps. Similar to Adalbero Mondesi, consider Robert a very volatile player in drafts. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | |
