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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Marcell Ozuna (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Marcell Ozuna
LF,DH - ATL
Marcell Ozuna
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
80%
Recommended by
40 of 50 experts
20%
Recommended by
10 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 22# 30
Best Rank# 13# 9
Worst Rank# 42# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 42# 33
Best Rank# 29# 30
Worst Rank# 43# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs8985
Home Runs3431
RBI11097
Stolen Bases52
Batting Average.285.274
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 19# 32
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 24# 28
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 23# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 16# 29
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 26# 34
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 25# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 24# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 15# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 20# 41
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 23# 29
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 27# 29
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 29# 30
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 21# 60
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 19# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 22# 33
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 24# 37
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 24# 31
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 20# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 22# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 25# 36
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 22# 32
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 22# 26
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 30# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 25# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 23# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 22# 32
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 19# 38
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 24# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 25# 45
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 16# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 17# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 27# 29
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 15# 31
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 34# 40
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 20# 37
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 24# 31
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 13# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 19# 33
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 16# 42
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 39# 9
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 24# 14
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 25# 15
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 26# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 29# 19
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 23# 19
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 28# 20
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 23# 20
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 29# 26
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 42# 29
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Marcell Ozuna
LF,DH - ATL
Marcell Ozuna
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats228182
   
Runs3823
   
Hits7646
   
Singles4429
   
Doubles149
   
Triples00
   
Home Runs188
   
RBI5626
   
Stolen Bases00
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks3815
   
Strikeouts6020
   
Batting Average.333.253
   
On Base Pct.427.304
   
Slugging Pct.632.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging1.059.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Marcell Ozuna
LF,DH - ATL
Marcell Ozuna
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats564571
   
Runs8985
   
Hits159155
   
Singles9693
   
Doubles2729
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs3431
   
RBI11097
   
Stolen Bases52
   
Caught Stealing21
   
Walks6761
   
Strikeouts13795
   
Batting Average.285.274
   
On Base Pct.361.345
   
Slugging Pct.519.494
   
On-base Plus Slugging.881.839
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Marcell Ozuna
LF,DH - ATL
Marcell Ozuna
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Marcell Ozuna went 0-for-4 with a walk and two RBI in Wednesday's game against the Yankees.
Steve Painter
Wed, Apr 21st
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with a walk, two runs scored, and two RBI while slugging his fourth home run of the season on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Apr 17th
 Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-4 with two singles, two walks, an RBI, and two runs scored in Sunday's game against the Cubs.
Steve Painter
Sun, Apr 18th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run, two runs scored, and three RBI in a 14-3 win over the Nationals on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Apr 14th
 Marcell Ozuna went 1-for-3 with a single and two RBI in Saturday's game against the Cubs.
Steve Painter
Sat, Apr 17th
Nolan Arenado had a day to forget on Monday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a 5-2 loss to Washington.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Apr 13th
 Marcell Ozuna went 3-for-5 with an RBI in Friday's game against the Cubs.
Steve Painter
Fri, Apr 16th
With the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Nolan Arenado came to the plate and turned on a 97-mph inside fastball, crushing a two-run home run to left field and propelling the Cardinals to a 3-1 win over the Brewers on Thursday. It was Arenado's only hit in four at-bats.
Lucas Spence
Thu, Apr 8th
 Marcell Ozuna went 3-for-4 with two singles, a two-run homer, three RBI, and two runs scored in Tuesday's game against the Marlins.
Steve Painter
Tue, Apr 13th
Nolan Arenado extended his season-opening hit streak to three games on Sunday, finishing 1-for-3 with a double.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Apr 4th
Notes 
 Ozuna nearly won the National League triple crown last season. After back-to-back years of under performing his peripherals, Ozuna finally erupted with a monster fantasy campaign. He's now back with the Braves and projects as one of the safest power bats in the early rounds of 2021 drafts.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Ozuna had a career year with the Braves last year, slashing .338/.431/.636, a career best in each category. His 18 home runs and 56 RBI led the National League, while his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate were all among the best in baseball. Given that he had shoulder surgery before the 2018 season, it's fair to assume that he needed two full years to recover. And although perhaps we can't expect him to again lead the league in power categories, you should expect roughly a 35-homer, 100-RBI season with a plus batting average. That makes him capable of being your first outfielder in mixed leagues and an asset to any fantasy team.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros